(CNN) — Russia may have invaded Ukraine on February 24, but President Vladimir Putin has insisted his troops are carrying out a “special military operationinstead of having made a declaration of war.
Nevertheless, Western officials and analysts they believe that might change on May 9, a symbolic day for Russia. A formal declaration of war would be made on that day, paving the way for Putin to step up his campaign in Ukraine.
What is May 9?
On May 9, known as the “victory day” in Russia, commemorates the country’s victory over the Nazis in 1945.
A military parade is held in Moscow and Russian leaders traditionally stand at the tomb of Vladimir Lenin in Red Square to watch.
“May 9 is designed to bluff itself to the local public, to intimidate the opposition and to pander to the dictator of the day,” James Nixey, director of the Russia-Eurasia Program at Chatham House, told CNN.
Western officials have long believed that Putin would seize on the day’s symbolic significance and propaganda value to herald a military achievement in Ukraine, a major escalation of hostilities, or both.
Russia’s president has an eye for symbolism, having launched the invasion of Ukraine the day following Defender of the Fatherland Day, another crucial military day in Russia.
Is Russia preparing for a mobilization?
Putin has many options on the table, according to Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at Crisis Group, a global crisis think tank. “Declaring war is the most difficult scenario,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has not formally declared war on Russia, imposed martial law on Ukraine when the Russian invasion began in late February.
Another option for Putin is to enact Russia’s mobilization law, which can be used to initiate a general or partial military mobilization “in cases of aggression once morest the Russian Federation or a direct threat of aggression, the outbreak of armed conflict directed once morest the Russian Federation “.
That would allow the government not only to muster troops but also put the country’s economy on a war footing.
Russian service members drive tanks along the street before a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia, April 28, 2022. (Credit: REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov)
Russian servicemen at a parade rehearsal on April 28. (Credit: REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov)
Russian forces have lost at least 15,000 soldiers since the start of the war, according to Nixey, and reinforcements will be needed if Moscow is to achieve its goals in Ukraine.
The mobilization might mean extending compulsory military service for soldiers currently in the armed forces, calling up reservists, or bringing in men of fighting age who have had military training, Ignatov said.
But it represents a great risk for the Putin government, he said.
“It would change the entire Kremlin narrative,” Ignatov said, adding that the move would force Putin to admit that the invasion of Ukraine did not go as planned.
“It’s a very risky decision,” Ignatov added, explaining that large-scale mobilization would also damage the already struggling Russian economy.
In addition, it might decrease support for Putin at home, as some Russians support the invasion of Ukraine without wanting to personally go to fight, the analyst said.
“If they declare a large-scale mobilization, some people won’t like it,” Ignatov said.
It might still be possible for Putin to enact the mobilization law without officially declaring war on Ukraine, he said.
Putin might also impose martial law on Russia, suspending elections and further concentrating power in his hands, Ignatov said.
This would impose rules such as restrictions on men of fighting age leaving the country, which might also prove unpopular, he added.
What else might happen on May 9?
If Putin does not declare war, he may try to make a declaration to mark Victory Day.
Other options include annexing the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, making a big push for Odessa in the south, or declaring full control over the southern port city of Mariupol.
There are also signs that Russia may be planning to declare and annex a “people’s republic” in the southeastern city of Kherson.
“He (Putin) will be able to declare that the Russian army won some victories in Ukraine,” Ignatov said. “He can try to use this date to solidify support for him.”
However, it is difficult to predict what Russia and its president will do, the analyst added.
“All decisions are made by one man and a couple of his advisers,” Ignatov said.
However, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Monday that there are “good reasons to believe the Russians will go to great lengths to use” May 9 for propaganda purposes.
“We have seen the Russians redouble their propaganda efforts, probably, almost certainly, as a means of distracting attention from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Price said at a State Department briefing. Monday.
