What will Russia look like without V. Putin: is Europe ready to think about it

What will Russia look like without V. Putin: is Europe ready to think about it

“V. Putin’s aggression once morest Ukraine makes it possible to actually achieve such results that if Russia loses in Ukraine, it can be expected that V. Putin’s regime will not survive in Moscow and that opportunities will open up to slowly evolve towards a normal state.” It will not be the case that there was V. Putin one day, and then clean democracy,” A. Kubilius told reporters.

J. Navalnaya: A. Navalny’s ideas made the Kremlin panic

Yulia, the widow of the murdered Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny Navalny addressed the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday.

Mr. Navalny told the members of parliament regarding the conditions of the election campaign in Russia and compared them to the European Parliament elections – both Mr. Navalny and other Russian politicians belonging to the opposition had their freedom to organize election campaigns strictly limited. The situation does not fundamentally change even as new Russian presidential elections are approaching.

The oppositionist’s widow said that following A. Navalny was banned from spreading his ideas through official channels in Russia, he looked for other ways, including the YouTube channel.

“If you are not allowed to vote, a tactical voting strategy can be devised to take over polling stations from the ruling party. While in V. Putin’s gulag, A. Navalny was able to convey ideas for projects that would make the Kremlin panic,” said J. Navalnaya.

Reuters/Scanpix photo/Yulia Navalnaya

“You will not defeat V. Putin by thinking that he is a man of principle and morality, because he is not.”

“He was the opposite of boring. And this is the answer to the question – if you really want to beat V. Putin, you have to become innovators. You can’t be boring. You will not harm V. Putin by preparing one more resolution or one more package of sanctions, which does not differ in any way from the previous ones. You will not defeat him by thinking that he is a man of principle and morality, rules, because he is not,” continued J. Navalnaya.

The woman said that the most painful weapons for V. Putin and his entourage might become the investigations of illegal assets and financial sources conducted in EU and allied institutions.

“V. Putin is the leader of an organized criminal gang”

“You are dealing not with a politician, but with a bloody monster.” Putin is the leader of an organized criminal gang <...> We need investigations, not diplomatic notes, we need to look for accomplices of the mafia in your countries, to look for those discreet lawyers and financiers who help V. Putin and his friends hide money”, said the wife of the murdered opposition figure.

In her speech, she also emphasized that there are more than one million people in Russia who condemn the war caused by V. Putin.

“Tens of millions of Russians are once morest Putin, once morest the war, once morest the evil he spreads. We should not persecute them, on the contrary, we need to cooperate with them, with us,” said J. Navalnaja.

The death of A. Navalny in a remote prison in the Arctic, where the 47-year-old man was serving a 19-year prison sentence, was announced on February 16.

A. Navalny organized huge protests once morest the Kremlin until he was arrested in 2021 when he returned to Moscow from Germany, where he was treated for poisoning with the nerve agent “Novichok”.

Navalny, 47, the most vocal critic of President Vladimir Putin, died on February 16 following spending three years behind bars on charges that independent rights groups and Western countries denounced as retaliation for opposition to the Kremlin.

February 24 following long negotiations, A.Navalno’s body was handed over to his mother.

The European Parliament does not want to talk regarding the plans of a democratic Russia

Although there were still enough seats for the media and other observers in the plenary hall an hour before Mr. Navalnaya’s address, they filled up as the address approached.

J. Navalnaya was greeted with applause, then a short video regarding A. Navalny’s life and legacy was presented.

It is true that not all parliamentarians came to listen to the widow of a Russian oppositionist – a significant number of parliamentarians’ seats were empty.

At the end of the speech, many parliamentarians accompanied her with long applause and a standing ovation.

Author's photo/European Parliament

Author’s photo/European Parliament

On Wednesday followingnoon, MEPs will continue to discuss the death of Navalny with representatives of the Commission and the Belgian Presidency.

They are expected to condemn the Russian regime and President Vladimir Putin and discuss the dangerous situation facing opposition figures, journalists and human rights defenders in Russia. The resolution will be voted on on Thursday.

However, the state of the Russian opposition and the topic of the country’s democratization might have sounded even louder in Strasbourg this session.

The report prepared by the Lithuanian MEP Andrias Kubiliaus and his colleagues on the future relations between the EU and Russia will not be discussed in this session – its assessment has been postponed indefinitely, possibly even until the next term of the European Parliament.

According to various forecasts, including Lithuanian politicians working in European institutions, the ranks of Eurosceptic parliamentarians will likely increase following the May elections in the European Parliament.

Although traditional pro-European parties are expected to maintain strong positions and a decisive voice on key issues, the shift in political forces is likely to pose additional challenges to a unified vision of Europe’s future. Among them, it can be assumed, issues related to various support for Ukraine.

The aforementioned report, which will begin drawing guidelines for further relations between the EU and Russia, was scheduled to be voted on by the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, and following its approval there, voted on in the plenary session. However, there was no such vote in the committee, it was postponed several times because there was no political consensus that it was needed.

At a meeting with Lithuanian journalists on Monday, A. Kubilius said that the report tried to formulate an opinion on what the EU’s policy towards Russia should be in the “medium term”.

“The EU must be ready for changes in Russia and when such an opportunity arises, in the short or medium term, the EU will have [su Rusija] to communicate,” he said.

There are less than 100 days left until the new EP elections and the topic of Ukraine and Russia is not popular among politicians of various countries who are hunting for voters’ votes. Moreover, such a distant vision as a democratic Russia.

“The West is at the Crossroads of Fears”

“Not everyone believes that democracy can ever exist in Russia – that’s one reason. Although in the case of A.Navalno’s death, everyone is talking, we are for A.Navalno, for his ideas and democracy. <...>

The West is, I would say, at a crossroads of fears – they are afraid of Russia’s defeat, they are afraid of Ukraine’s victory, because if Russia loses, V. Putin falls – what happens next? It might be worse. They are afraid of a long war, because the West will get tired, and they are afraid of a short war – because if the war is short, it is necessary to give a lot of weapons to Ukraine and maybe V. Putin will escalate the response. We are at a bit of a dead end,” said the politician.

The fact that European parliamentarians do not even vote on the aforementioned report, which has remained a draft for the time being, shows “many other things” to A. Kubili.

It would require not only de-Sovietization, but also “deputinization”

The document specifies a number of conditions that Russia should become in order for its relations with the EU to become “constructive” and to normalize.

In addition to respect for human rights, free elections and the media, it also contains other themes that are not typical of every authoritarian regime in the world, but specifically of Russia.

For example, the normalization of relations between the EU and Russia would require the removal of nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus – of course, this should be part of the cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.

The other stipulated conditions are more strategic and affect not only today’s war-torn Ukraine, but also the Baltic and other former USSR countries.

“Initiate a process of historical reconciliation and reparations with countries affected by the Soviet occupation, including the return of historical values ​​and artifacts,” one of the conditions states in the document.

The new Russia should also stop any interference in democratic processes in EU member states and in any country, including disinformation and manipulation of information online and offline, financial and material support to anti-democratic political parties and movements.

Another of the specified criteria is not only complete de-Sovietization of Russia, but also “deputinization”.

“To openly condemn all the crimes of the Soviet and Putin regimes, while conducting a detailed historical and legal assessment, as well as opening all archives of the Soviet and Russian security services; to cooperate unconditionally with all state authorities investigating confirmed or suspected Russian intelligence attacks on EU territory, as well as similar actions in the United Kingdom, Eastern Partnership countries and EU candidate countries,” the document reads.

Can Russia become a normal democracy?

All this seems unlikely given the state of Russia today – Putin’s war machine is not giving up on the destruction of Ukraine, and the long-serving Russian president is already preparing for new elections.

Almost no one doubts that in these elections, which independent observers call opaque every time, the presidential seat has already been reserved for V. Putin.

During his more than two decades of rule, Russia occupied not only the territories of Ukraine, but also Sakartvel, and V. Putin himself has repeatedly expressed his nostalgia for the Soviet era. Therefore, the points regarding the reparation of the wrongs of Russia and the USSR can be extremely difficult for the Russian authorities and society.

However, A. Kubilius, who spoke to journalists on Monday, says that he hopes that in the long term, democratic changes within Russia are possible.

He emphasizes that even in the best scenario – following Ukraine regains its occupied territories – Russia will not cease to exist, so you should already think regarding how you will need to communicate with it following that.

“The first thing is what is missing in Lithuania and Europe, the common understanding that Russia will still be around. In this case, we must understand our own mega goal. Our strategic goal, it seems to me, should be very clear – to do everything so that we can live next to a normal neighbor. V. Putin’s aggression once morest Ukraine creates opportunities to actually achieve such results that if Russia loses in Ukraine, it can also be expected that V. Putin’s regime will not survive in Moscow and that opportunities will open up to slowly evolve towards a normal state. It will not be the case that one day there was V. Putin, and then clean democracy,” the politician told reporters.

Aivars Žydel /15min.  photo/Andrius Kubilius

Aivars Žydel /15min. photo/Andrius Kubilius

“I don’t see any arguments based on any kind of evidence here,” A. Kubilius continued when asked regarding the vision of a democratic Russia.

He also compared the current situation in Russia with the last years of the Soviet Union. Back in 1984, a year before the “Perestroika” initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev, it was difficult for the majority of the population of the Soviet Union to imagine that life would change dramatically in the next five years and bring the fifteen states of the USSR into the world of democracy and capitalism.

“I am not saying that it is the same now and that the conditions are similar, but to say that nothing will ever happen in Russia – I do not see such arguments. We can speculate, think whether it will happen sooner or later, but who can [tai] speed up – it’s safe to say. This is a defeat for Ukraine and the West. This is the main factor”, said A. Kubilius.


#Russia #Putin #Europe #ready
2024-04-23 04:43:41

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