California’s Elections: The Showdown in the Sunshine State
November 5, 2024, marks a monumental day for California, as voters flock to the polls to cast their ballots in a whirlwind of political activity—from deciding who’ll sit in the Oval Office to electing a fresh face in the U.S. Senate. And remember, kids, it’s not just a game; it’s political survival!
The Battlefield of Ballots
While California has gotten into a bit of a habit of choosing Democrats in presidential races (I mean, who could resist a good avocado toast narrative?), a handful of tight congressional races could flip the script and affect the Republicans’ grip on the U.S. House of Representatives. The Golden State’s congressional delegation may be a Democratic majority, but let’s not rule out the possibility of a tug-of-war over a few contested House seats!
In 2022, the GOP pulled off a nifty maneuver, snatching victory in a competitive district. Some say California politics are like a high-stakes game of Monopoly—one moment you’re buying Boardwalk and Park Place, the next you’re facing bankruptcy because someone flipped the script and built hotels on Baltic Avenue!
The Presidential Race
Leading the charge at the top of the ballot, our very own Vice President Kamala Harris will square off against former Republican President Donald Trump. It’s a match-up reminiscent of a bizarre game show—“Who Wants To Be the President?”—and California holds a whopping 54 Electoral College votes that could sway the national narrative. Will it be Kamala’s smooth charm or Trump’s contentious antics that bag the crown this time?
Fun fact: No Republican has managed to sweet-talk the voters of California since 1988. That’s right! Even time can’t heal those deep-rooted political scars!
The Senate Seat Shenanigans
And what’s more? The Senate seat left vacant by the late Dianne Feinstein is up for grabs, with Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and former baseball ace Steve Garvey winning the popularity contest to replace her. If this were a reality show, there’d definitely be some serious plot twists concocted to throw these two candidates into the spotlight!
Oh, and let’s not forget the nuances of ballot counting—because California knows how to stretch a good game of ‘hang on, let’s count these votes!’ The slow-motion spectacle might have you questioning if a tortoise is counting the ballots.
The Other Contests
California voters are also faced with questions that could reshape state policies: Should we toughen penalties for repeat drug offenses? Should Oakland’s Mayor, Sheng Thao, brace for a potential recall? Oh, the intrigue! You have to appreciate a state that keeps its political dramas rolling like a hit soap opera!
Seriously, it’s like the Kardashians, but with more policy discussions and less contouring.
The Numbers Game
Now, let’s talk numbers. Registered voters have reached a staggering 22,310,352—that’s almost enough for a minor sporting event! About 46% of those voters are Democrats, roughly 25% are Republicans, and the rest are just floating around without a label like a lost balloon.
If the historical turnout numbers from 2020 and 2022 tell us anything, it’s that Californians aren’t about to skip their chance to flex their democratic muscles. Expect numbers resembling those of a rock concert, as about 87% of voters prefer to get their ballots in early, and why not? Nobody likes queuing in the sun longer than necessary!
While California may be solidly Democratic in presidential races, a handful of competitive races in the state could determine whether Republicans maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters will also cast their ballots in a race for the U.S. Senate and 10 state races, as well as for president and the state legislature.
At the top of the ballot, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris — who is from California — will compete against former Republican President Donald Trump and seek to win the state’s 54 Electoral College votes. No Republican presidential candidate has won the state since 1988.
While the state’s congressional delegation is majority Democratic, it has about a half-dozen competitive House races, and in 2022 a victory in one of them gave the GOP a majority in the legislative body. This year’s top races include two Republicans in the agricultural Central Valley, three other Republicans in Southern California, and one open Democratic seat. One of the clearest routes for Democrats to take back the House is to pick up several Republican seats in friendly states like California and New York.
It will likely take days or even weeks to know who won in some districts because of how slowly California counts votes. The lengthy process begins with an initial vote report that reflects votes cast before Election Day.
The candidates to fill the Senate seat long held by the late Democrat Dianne Feinstein are Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and former Republican baseball player Steve Garvey. They are running in two separate elections: one for the full six-year term and the other for the remaining weeks of Feinstein’s unexpired term. Laphonza Butler — the Democrat appointed to fill Feinstein’s vacancy — did not run to replace her.
Voters will also decide on a series of proposals, including one that would toughen punishments for recurring drug and theft charges.
In the state Legislature, half of the 40 seats in the California State Senate and all of the 80 seats in the state Assembly will be decided in the election. Democrats have disproportionate supermajorities in both chambers.
Oakland residents will decide whether to recall Mayor Sheng Thao.
The AP does not make predictions and declares a winner only when it has determined that there is no scenario that would allow the candidates trailing the leader to close the gap. If a race has not been declared, the AP continues its coverage of any newsworthy events, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. Doing so will make it clear that the AP has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 elections in California:
Election Day:
November 5.
Polls closing time
11 pm Eastern Time.
Electoral College votes for the presidential race
54, awarded to the state winner.
The main contests
President: Harris (Democratic Party) vs. Trump (Republican Party) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (American Independent Party) vs. Jill Stein (Green Party) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Peace and Freedom Party). United States Senate: Schiff (D) vs. Garvey (R).
13th Congressional District: Representative John Duarte (R); Adam Gray (D).
22nd Congressional District: Representative David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D).
27th Congressional District: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) vs. George Whitesides (D).
45th Congressional District: Representative Michelle Steel (R) vs. 45th Congressional District. Derek Tran (D).
Other contests of interest
US House of Representatives, State Senate, State House of Representatives, Los Angeles District Attorney, Mayor of San Francisco, Recall of Oakland Mayor.
Results of past presidential races
2020: Biden (D) 63%, Trump (R) 34%. AP Winner Announcement: Tuesday, November 3, 2020, 11 pm ET.
Registered voters and electoral participation
Registered voters: 22,310,352 (as of September 6, 2024). About 46% are Democrats, about 25% are Republicans, about 22% have no party preference.
Voter turnout in November 2020: 78% of registered voters.
Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 87% of total voters.
Votes cast before Election Day 2022: approximately 88% of total voters.
How long does the vote count take?
First votes reported in November 2020: 11:04 pm ET.
By midnight ET: approximately 54% of the total votes cast had been reported.
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AP writers Hannah Fingerhut and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.
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This story is part of Explaining Election 2024, an Associated Press series designed to help understand American democracy. The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to improve its coverage of elections and democracy. More on AP’s democracy coverage here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
