It’s official. Hassan Nasrallah has been killed by an Israeli strike targeting Hezbollah’s headquarters in Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut. This significant event is poised to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. In the aftermath of his death, speculation about his successor, Iran’s reaction, and the broader consequences for Hezbollah and its allies are gaining traction.
Announced first by the Israeli army and subsequently confirmed by Hezbollah on September 28, the death of Hassan Nasrallah represents a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict in the region. Following the news, Hezbollah issued a stern warning, declaring its intent to continue fighting against Israel “in support of Gaza and Palestine, and for the defense of Lebanon and its people.” However, questions arise concerning Hezbollah’s capability to retaliate effectively.
Hezbollah has reportedly suffered considerable losses in recent Israeli attacks, including the deaths of numerous senior officials, leaving the organization tragically weakened. Despite having an arsenal of approximately 150,000 rockets and missiles, with about 1,000 classified as ballistic missiles capable of penetrating deep into Israeli territory, the effectiveness of this military strength is in doubt. Reports indicate that a significant portion of Hezbollah’s arsenal has been targeted and destroyed by Israeli strikes, leading to critical disruptions in their operational capacities.
Karim Yahiaoui, a special correspondent for France 24 in Beirut, noted, “Even if there remains a strike and fire capacity on the Hezbollah side, for the moment, it has proven relatively ineffective in achieving Israeli military objectives.” The recent operational setbacks have led analysts to question Hezbollah’s ability to launch organized and impactful retaliation against Israeli interests.
If revenge is deemed “essential” for Hezbollah, it will be “difficult to implement,” given the organization’s fraught organizational structure due to intensified Israeli strikes. “The capacity of Hezbollah in its organization and in its capacity to fire in an organized manner towards Israel is undoubtedly largely called into question,” Yahiaoui elaborated.
Israeli operations have further disrupted Hezbollah’s communication frameworks, which ultimately culminated in the death of Nasrallah during a crucial meeting with other high-ranking officials. This level of infiltration by Israeli intelligence signals remarkable precision and raises concerns about Hezbollah’s internal security and organizational integrity, leading to a pervasive paranoia among its ranks.
Hachem Safieddine: The Likely Successor
As the dust settles on the sudden leadership vacuum, a name is circulating as a potential successor to Hassan Nasrallah: Hachem Safieddine. As the head of Hezbollah’s executive council, Safieddine has previously survived several attempts to weaken the organization through Israeli military actions. He is reportedly a cousin of Nasrallah and bears a physical resemblance to the late leader, which may facilitate a smoother transition should he be appointed as the new head.
Safieddine carries significant influence within Hezbollah, managing vital aspects of its political and military operations. Designated as a terrorist by the U.S. State Department in 2017, he remains aligned with the group’s militant position and has historically adhered closely to the Palestinian cause, vowing to make Israel “weep and lament” in the wake of the deaths of Hezbollah commanders.
His shared ideological vision with Nasrallah, honed during their formative years in Qom, Iran, could help maintain Hezbollah’s trajectory and its ongoing alliance with Iran and other regional allies.
The Iranian Response
The death of Hassan Nasrallah is significant not only for Hezbollah but also for Iran, which played a pivotal role in establishing the militant group in 1982. In response to the event, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has urged Muslims to support Hezbollah and its battle against “the evil regime of Israel.”
Iran’s future actions in the wake of Nasrallah’s death remain uncertain, given that the country has maintained a relatively low profile in recent days amid escalating regional tensions. However, the loss of a key figure like Nasrallah may shift the dynamics within the so-called “axis of resistance,” reshaping Iran’s approach to its military and diplomatic endeavors in the region.
Senior reporter Amar Al Hameedawi opines that Nasrallah’s assassination might lead to a decline in the effectiveness of this axis, as Iranian alliances with Syria, various pro-Iranian militias, and others come under scrutiny. Nevertheless, the commitment of Iran to its allies and the broader Shiite cause is unlikely to waver significantly in the immediate aftermath.
Potential Implications for Lebanon
Experts view Nasrallah’s elimination as an unprecedented blow to Shiite extremists but not necessarily a transformative event for neighboring Arab states, who have generally held little respect for Hezbollah. Ofer Bronchtein, president of the International Forum for Peace, posited that Nasrallah’s removal could provide an opportunity for the Lebanese population to reclaim their sovereignty and inadvertently encourage a sense of liberation from Hezbollah’s firm grasp over the Lebanese government and military.
“The Lebanese must sense a liberation movement somewhere,” Bronchtein suggested, urging the public to regain control of their destiny and aspire towards a singular Lebanese military force—not one fragmented by factionalism. He points out that with perceived threats from Israel significantly lower than those posed by the ongoing Palestinian issues, Lebanese perspectives on foreign interventions may also begin to shift.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has articulated that “Israel’s war is not against the Lebanese people.” He acknowledged Nasrallah’s significant role in instigating violence against Israeli citizens, remarking on the need for a change in sentiment within Lebanon. With continued Israeli airstrikes aimed at Hezbollah positions, the region remains in a state of tension.
