what to anticipate from Russians (VIDEO)

The Russian military is advancing in two instructions alongside giant water obstacles.
The primary is alongside the Travyanskoye Reservoir within the path of the village of Liptsy, 16 km north of Kharkov. The second is alongside the Seversky Donets River close to the town of Volchansk, 45 km northeast of the regional middle.

The Russian military was capable of seize a few dozen small villages close to the state border. It superior roughly 5-6 km deep into Ukrainian territory and 30 km broad. The Ukrainian Armed Forces try to comprise the enemy and forestall the lack of heights close to the village of Liptsy, in addition to the seize of Volchansk and its environs. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrsky, calls the state of affairs escalated, and the Ukrainian army, immediately concerned within the battles within the Kharkov path, discuss issues with fortifications and command.

Anticipated shock assault

Western media started writing about the truth that Russia plans to open a brand new entrance within the Kharkov area on the finish of winter. The Ukrainian authorities denied this for a very long time and mentioned that the Kharkov path was maximally protected.

On the finish of March, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, in an interview with the state company Ukrinform, recalled that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have profitable expertise within the liberation of the Kharkiv area – for the reason that fall of 2022.

“We have already got expertise of army operations within the Kharkov area, we managed to calculate [намерения] the enemy and liberate a big a part of the Kharkov area. It was then {that a} large-scale collapse of the Russian entrance occurred. If the Russians transfer there once more, Kharkov will change into a deadly metropolis for them,” the final mentioned.

Nonetheless, when the brand new Kharkov offensive started on Could 10, Ukrainian fighters had been pressured to right away retreat a number of kilometers into their territory, permitting Russia to occupy border villages.

Some specialists and army officers level out that the primary line of protection, which features a provide line with minefields, anti-tank ditches and concrete “dragon tooth,” was not correctly ready and never lined with artillery.

We’re speaking particularly concerning the line that was constructed 1.5-6 km from the border and which was presupposed to considerably decelerate the enemy’s motion.

The previous chief of the engineering troops, and now the pinnacle of the State Particular Transport Service, Basic Alexander Yakovets, says that probably the most ready protection line within the Kharkov area was erected on the third line, that’s, 17-35 km from the state border.

He explains that on account of fixed shelling, the entrance line of protection within the Kharkov area couldn’t be geared up utilizing engineering tools and bolstered concrete constructions. Subsequently, the final calls the claims of some army personnel concerning the lack of in-depth concrete fortifications close to the state border absurd.

The truth that the protection of the Kharkov area didn’t go in response to plan could also be indicated by a sudden change of commander on this path.

Basic Mikhail Drapaty turned the brand new head of the operational-tactical group of troops “Kharkov” as a substitute of Yuri Galushkin. BBC sources within the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed this data.

Final yr, he commanded the Kakhovka operational group on the fitting financial institution of Kherson, after which was promoted to the Basic Workers.

“They don’t change commanders similar to that. Which means that shortcomings have been found,” notes Israeli army knowledgeable David Gendelman in a dialog with the BBC Ukrainian Service.

Ukrainian analyst from the Data Resistance group Konstantin Mashovets expressed the opinion on his Fb web page that the earlier commander of the Kharkov OTGV was faraway from his submit exactly as a result of he didn’t correctly arrange hearth cowl for the provision line on the entrance line of protection.

This allowed Russian troops to maneuver a number of kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory fairly rapidly and with out obstacles and occupy border villages.

Army knowledgeable and historian Mikhail Zhirokhov is assured that the brand new commander Mikhail Drapaty will change the strategy to protection on this space.

In response to him, for this goal, a number of recent brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already been allotted on the disposal of the OTGV. The Basic Workers can be speaking about introducing reserves. And a few items, for instance, the third assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, have already publicly introduced their redeployment to the Kharkov area.

“Nonetheless, transferring much more operational reserves to this path might be dangerous,” says Zhirokhov. David Gendelman believes that one of many duties of the Russian military is to tug Ukrainian reserves in different instructions.

“Sooner or later, an important concern would be the stability of forces and, most significantly, tempo. Particularly, at what tempo all sides will introduce reserves,” says the Israeli specialist.

Thus far, the Russian military is conducting its offensive within the Kharkov area with insignificant forces of a number of battalions. For instance, in response to the Basic Workers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia despatched 5 battalions (roughly 2.5-3 thousand troopers) to storm Volchansk.

In complete, the Russian group of troops on this space numbers about 30-35 thousand troopers.

“The Russians’ plan has simply begun to be applied; now we have not but seen the principle forces and implies that they’ve collected,” says Mikhail Zhirokhov.

He predicts that Russia might carry the third echelon of troops into battle roughly on Could 20.

In his opinion, it’s by this time that the Russian military plans to implement its tactical plan within the Kharkov path to the utmost.

However what precisely this tactical plan is – knowledgeable opinions differ considerably.

What are the Kremlin’s targets?

Western media, such because the New York Occasions, don’t rule out that the purpose of the Russian military is to get as shut as potential to Kharkov, start shelling it with artillery, or arrange a siege. This might supposedly push the Ukrainian management to barter with Putin.

Nonetheless, most army analysts notice that the group of Russian troops is just too small for a large-scale operation to storm or encircle a metropolis of one million individuals.

In response to David Gendelman, the principle job of the Russians now could be to create a steady “buffer zone” on the border with Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced these plans at first of the yr.

“I don’t rule out that we’ll be pressured to create a sure ‘sanitary zone’ on territory managed by the Kyiv regime,” he mentioned on March 18, reflecting on a potential Russian response to the shelling of Belgorod.

Contemplating that, in response to the Russian Ministry of Protection, most frequently shelling of this Russian metropolis is carried out from the Vampire a number of launch rocket system (the Czech model of the Soviet Grad MLRS) with a variety of 40-42 km, then, in all probability, that is the space the Kremlin plans to maneuver “zone” deep into Ukraine.

In response to Gendelman, the Russians will attempt to advance inland close to Volchansk and Liptsy, after which unite the captured territories.

“In the event that they succeed, they’ll more than likely need to make a steady strip alongside the border. “The define reveals that there are two protrusions in the direction of the Russian Federation and, in all probability, they’ll attempt to reduce them off.”

Ukrainian analyst Mikhail Zhirokhov has a special opinion. In response to him, the path of the assault on Liptsy and, accordingly, additional on Kharkov is a diversion. The primary job of the Russian military is to seize Volchansk and transfer south to chop off the logistics of the Ukrainian group close to Kupyansk.

It is a strategically necessary metropolis – a big railway junction on the Oskol River. The Armed Forces of Ukraine launched him within the fall of 2022. Since then, the Russian military has been attempting laborious to recapture it. Highly effective assaults have been ongoing since October 2023, with Russian troops unsuccessfully attempting to push the Ukrainians out of the japanese financial institution of Oskol and strategy Kupyansk.

If the Russians handle to get behind the Ukrainian group, the state of affairs on this part of the entrance for the Ukrainian Armed Forces will considerably worsen. Already, the Russian military is actively shelling bridges within the Volchansk space, specifically on the Volchya and Seversky Donets rivers, attempting to chop off provide routes for Ukrainian troops and isolate the fight space.

Nonetheless, Zhirokhov notes, to date the Russians haven’t been capable of break via the defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a big depth and obtain success in realizing their plans.

David Gendelman agrees with this.

“For now there’s a “fog of battle” right here. However it’s not clear that the Russians’ actions have reached the extent of an operational breakthrough,” he notes. — The state of affairs is unfavorable, however a critical breakthrough of the entrance isn’t deliberate within the close to future. Even when the Russians take Volchansk and Liptsy, this doesn’t imply that the entrance will crumble additional. It’s simply that this as soon as once more reveals the clearly inadequate readiness of the Ukrainian protection on this path.”

In response to the Basic Workers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on Could 13, the Russian military continued to conduct assault operations within the Kharkov path and actively used aviation. The Ukrainians try to counterattack and reduce off the enemy’s penetration into their protection.

“Pre-created reserves have been moved to the Kharkov path. Relying on the event of the state of affairs, the build-up of the group will proceed. The troops are supplied with the required quantity of weapons,” says the Ukrainian Basic Workers.

The Russian authorities haven’t made any statements about opening a brand new entrance in Ukraine. Solely the Ministry of Protection of the Russian Federation, in its each day report on Could 11, routinely reported that the day earlier than it had “liberated,” that’s, occupied, 5 villages within the Kharkov area of Ukraine.