Putin’s Approval Ratings: A Conspiracy of Confusion
Ah, the joys of polling in Russia! It’s like trying to film a rom-com in a war zone—somehow, you have to ignore all the imminent disasters and focus on the “happy” ending. The Levada Center is at it again, displaying a graph so tedious you might as well use it as a sleep aid. Touted as the only brave polling dear heart in the land of vodka and bears, it shows Putin’s approval ratings wobbling somewhere between 60% and, let’s be honest, ‘Are we even pretending here?’ 80%—while the rest of us are left with more questions than answers.
Reality Check: The Chronicles Research Project
So, what happens when independent researchers throw their hats into the ring? You guessed it—a lovely curveball! The Chronicles research project, spearheaded by the fearless Alexey Minyaylo, reveals a different story—one you’d need a decoder ring to fully appreciate. Yes, according to their data, a startling 78% reported approving of Mr. Putin, just slightly below the Levada Center’s figure.
But wait! Is anyone else disturbed that people in Russia feel the need to self-censor? Who would’ve thought that living in a country where dissent can lead to serious consequences might cause people to be a tad untruthful? Minyaylo notes that while these sensational figures shine a light, they merely scratch the surface of what the Russian populace truly feels about the issues at hand.
Hint: It’s not good!
The Realities of Putin’s Policies
The Chronicles team did more than just stir the pot; they poked their heads inside to see what was really bubbling. They narrowed down three policy points that encapsulate Putin’s ‘vision’ for Russia: confrontation with the West, prioritizing foreign policy over domestic concerns (classic!), and, surprise surprise, the ongoing war in Ukraine.
And the verdict? A staggering 61% of surveyed respondents want a peace treaty with Ukraine. 43% long to mend relations with the West, and a mere 25% find mobilizing men for war appealing. In fact, 83% demand political efforts focus on domestic social and economic issues. Could this mean that most people believe Putin’s narrative is about as believable as me saying I can run a marathon after the New Year’s buffet?
Support? What Support?
Now we get to the juicy bit: according to this research, only 14% of respondents truly support Putin’s policies—those who are fully aware of what he stands for and are on board with his political antics. It’s like saying 14% of people in a sea of 800 actually enjoy standing in line for a year to vote for an empty box!
What’s even more eye-opening is that 79% of respondents who don’t support Putin also want to see a peace treaty with Ukraine, and 90% are eager to re-establish ties with the West. But let’s face it, Putin’s PR team must be working overtime because this disconnect is practically begging for someone to smack it with a reality check.
By the time we steer our ships towards 2025, unless Putin decides to prioritize the people’s wishes, it seems he’ll be navigating through a sea of discontent that could give the Titanic a run for its money.
Conclusion: The Status Quo Can’t Last Forever
As our friend Minyaylo concludes, the key to a democratic Russia that might actually be on speaking terms with the West lies in opposing Putin, but doing so without alienating ordinary Russians. After all, they can smell the propaganda from a mile away.
So here we stand, at the crossroads of confusion and clarity, with a figurehead stuck in his own web of misinformation while the real pulse of the nation quietly beats for peace and progress. Remember, folks, the next government that comes along, even if it’s Putin 2.0, will have to wake up and smell the vodka—or risk drowning in it.
Stay tuned, because if there’s one thing we know, it’s that Russian politics are far from boring. They’re downright edge-of-your-seat thrilling—if your seat happens to be on a rickety bus speeding down a winding road with no brakes.
The curve is damn boring. On the website of the Levada Center, the only major independent and reliable polling institute in Russia, the graph representing the evolution of Russian support for Vladimir Putin appears on the first page. Some dips, some rises… But on average, since 1999, positive opinions towards the master of the Kremlin have rarely fallen (if ever) below 60%, and often hovered around 80%… As in September last: 84%. Enough to feed one of the sea serpents that sticks to the skin of Russians, according to which despite electoral fraud, the repression of dissent and propaganda, Vladimir Putin would still be widely supported by his population.
The latest survey carried out by the Chronicles research project, an independent polling group led by the Russian opponent Alexey Minyaylo as well as a team of sociologists, nevertheless reveals a much less flattering reality for the master of the Kremlin: namely that behind these rates outrageously high approval ratings, in fact hides a rejection of everything proposed, or almost, by Vladimir Putin… “Our objective is not to dot the i’s, but to demonstrate that the approval rating of the work of Putin is a much less unambiguous characteristic than some sociologists and citizens believe, the sociologists write in the preamble. And that expressing approval does not at all mean supporting a number of key actions of Putin.
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Putin’s policy in three points
“Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of Vladimir Putin’s work as President of Russia?” Like the Levada Center, the researchers began by asking this simple question to 800 people, between September 10 and 17. Unsurprisingly, the figure obtained by the Chronicles research project (78%) is close to the 84% of the largest independent polling institute. For good reason: “any pollster, even independent, will come up against self-censorship by respondents in Russia. No one wants to take the risk of appearing as a dissident or displeasing the Kremlin, so we inevitably obtain this kind of figures at first,” explains Alexey Minyaylo, who has spoken several times in our columns. But the opponent’s team did not stop there. “We asked ourselves what is the essence of Putin’s policy, to question the Russians who support him on these specific points, and thus confirm whether or not they really support him.” This is how the team chose three axes representative, according to them, of the current policy of the Russian president: the confrontation with the West, the priority of foreign policy over domestic issues, and the war in Ukraine.
Verdict: on these three points, it is an understatement to say that the Russians who say they support Vladimir Putin disagree with his actions. In reality, 61% would like to conclude a peace treaty with Ukraine with mutual concessions. 43% would like to restore relations with Western countries, and only 25% said they agreed to mobilize men to participate in the “special military operation”. Better: 83% said they wanted to focus political efforts on internal social and economic problems…
These results are all the more striking when superimposed with those obtained from Russians who say they do not support Vladimir Putin – 79% of them being in favor of a peace treaty with Ukraine with mutual concessions, 90% in favor of restoring relations with the West, 13% for mobilizing men to participate in the war, and 92% calling for a concentration of efforts on internal social and economic problems. “The numbers are obviously higher among respondents who do not support Putin, but the order of magnitude is still revealing: although the majority of respondents express support for Putin, the overwhelming majority want things that same those who are against Putin want… If you want to restore relations with Western countries, that means you don’t buy his propaganda!”, reacts Alexey Minyaylo.
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14% real support
In reality, the real proportion of support on which the head of the Kremlin can count, that is to say those aware of what his policy entails, seems much lower than the scenes of jubilation and crowd baths filmed by state television could suggest…. According to the Chronicles research project, those who voted for Vladimir Putin and who say they support him represent 52% of respondents. But those who are truly informed about what his political project contains, in solidarity with his foreign policy, with the war in Ukraine, and who do not express the wish to reestablish relations with Western countries only represent… 14% of those surveyed .
“These results are the key to enabling a change of perspective,” comments Alexey Minyaylo. “A democratic Russia is likely to be a friend of the West. It is therefore essential to oppose Putin, but it is counterproductive to alienate ordinary Russians because if Putin keeps saying that he does everything for his people, Russians know that is not true. In fact, if more than four out of five respondents said they wanted political efforts to focus on internal social and economic problems, the 2025 budget bill announced by the Russian Finance Ministry predicts that military spending will represent nearly a third of federal spending… “The vacuum left by current policy on domestic issues will end up being a problem for the Kremlin. Putin, for his part, will probably not change his priorities. But the next government, even if it comes from his entourage , will have no choice but to tackle this problem. This is the lot of autocracies: Putin can be blind to the aspirations of the Russians because his power rests only on himself. he will die (or retire, who knows…), whoever succeeds him will not be able to count on this asset.”
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Internet censorship in Russia
Is shockingly low. The Chronicles research reveals that only 14% of respondents genuinely support Putin’s policies. This figure starkly contrasts with the inflated approval ratings that are often broadcasted, which are skewed by fear and self-censorship in a politically repressive environment.
Moreover, the survey highlights a significant disconnect between how people express their support for Putin and their actual opinions on his policies. For instance, while many respondents may indicate approval when asked a general question about Putin’s presidency, a deeper inquiry into specific policy areas reveals that a substantial majority are dissatisfied with key aspects of his governance.
Notably, as we unpack the data further, the overwhelming desire among those surveyed for peace in Ukraine—61% of the total respondents—indicates a profound longing for change in the current geopolitical stance of Russia. Additionally, even among Putin’s purported supporters, more than half express a desire to restore diplomatic relations with Western nations, contradicting the confrontational foreign policies that characterize his administration.
The findings fuel speculation that Putin’s high approval ratings are more a product of a controlled narrative and societal pressure rather than genuine public support. As such, the future political landscape in Russia could drastically shift if dissenters find a way to publicly voice their discontent without fear of retribution.
the status quo is becoming increasingly untenable for Putin. The gulf between what citizens want and what they feel compelled to endorse will likely pose significant challenges for his administration moving forward. The demand for a government that prioritizes domestic issues over foreign confrontations could pave the way for change, and whether Putin can adapt to this reality—or whether he will continue down his current path—remains a critical question as we approach the next elections. The ongoing tension within Russian society is palpable, and should it continue to escalate, it may eventually lead to a seismic shift in the nation’s political dynamics.
