The Department of Financial Studies and Forecasts (DEPF), part of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, published the economic note for the month of July 2022, which highlighted several indicators making it possible to monitor the evolution of the national economy. Here are the key points to remember from the DEPF’s economic outlook for the month of August.
The document tells us that growth in the global economy is expected to slow markedly in 2022. For most major economies, including those of the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Japan, China and Russia, the projections have been revised significantly downwards. This decline occurs due to the acceleration of inflation, the decline in economic confidence, in addition to the effects of the conflict in Ukraine. The latter set off a chain reaction in the global economy. Because in addition to the pandemic crisis has been added, the rise in energy and food prices. The Moroccan economy evolving in this difficult international context has not escaped this despite its good resistance, through several positive elements highlighted by this note.
For the DEPF economists, the positive trend is continuing for the national economy, with the exception of the agricultural sector, which seems severely weakened due to the delicate climatic conditions it suffered during the past season and which don’t seem to want to subside.
Indeed, at the end of the first quarter of 2022, the added value of the agricultural sector fell by 14.3% after a notable strengthening of 19.4% a year earlier. According to the DEPF, this is explained by the impact of the significant and generalized rainfall deficit which marked the beginning of the year and which was somewhat mitigated by the significant rainfall recorded from spring to reach a cumulative rainfall of the crop year 2021-2022 reached 217.2 mm as of June 20, 2022, down 28.9% from the previous season.
Also, the production of the three main cereals is estimated at 32 million qx, i.e. a drop of 69% (soft wheat at 17.6 million qx), durum wheat (7.5 million qx and barley at 6.9 million ) compared to its predecessor.
The area sown to cereals in Morocco during this financial year was about 3.6 million hectares, with an average cereal yield which stood at 8.9 quintals per hectare against 23.7 during the previous season. . It also emerges from this economic report that the production of electrical energy at the national level increased by 3.8% at the end of the first five months of 2022.
This change is explained by the increase in the production of the National Office for Electricity and Drinking Water (ONEE) by 30.5% and that of renewable energies relating to Law 13-09 by 11.9%. %. However, private production showed a decline of 3.5%.
With regard to energy imports, there was an increase of 120.1% in volume, while exports fell by 9%. For its part, the consumption of electrical energy increased by 4.1% at the end of the first five months of 2022, after +7.3% a year earlier.
Regarding the tourism sector, the DEPF explains that all the indicators are in favor of a return to pre-crisis dynamics during the summer period of 2022. At the end of May, receipts firmed up by 173.1%, year-on-year, to reach 20.3 billion DH (MMDH), after a drop of 62.4% a year earlier.
In detail, the volume of tourist arrivals in Morocco more than quadrupled compared to the level of the previous year, to reach 2.3 million. However, this number represents 52.3% of the level of arrivals recorded at the end of May 2019. For the recovery rate, it was 71.7% for arrivals of Moroccans residing abroad (MRE) and 41.5 % for foreign tourists. And in this regard, income from transfers from MREs increased by 5% at the end of May, or 1.8 billion dirhams more compared to the same period last year.
Air transport is not to be outdone, in view of the seers who are extremely favorable to a recovery for this summer season. In May, national airports welcomed a number of passengers exceeding by 9% that recorded in the same period of 2019, with nearly 1.8 million passengers. Exports increased by 40.7% to 176.4 (MMDH), much more than the same period over the past five years. All sectors are affected by this increase.
To this end, phosphates and derivatives remains the export champion with +96.2%, followed by aeronautics (+61.5%), textiles and leather (+32.6%), automotive (+24.4%), and agriculture and agri-food (+24%). Imports are to be attributed to all product groups, in particular energy products (+113.8%), semi-finished products (+53.9%), food products (+31.8 %) and raw products (+76%).