What the Arakan Army’s Rise Means for the Rohingya: A Comedic Commentary in the Style of a Stand-Up Routine
Alright folks, let’s dive into the wild and wacky world of Myanmar’s Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army is doing its best impression of a teenager who suddenly discovers weights at the gym. You know, starting from zero to dominating two-thirds of the state like they’ve got a cheat code! I mean, it’s like they went from ‘Gym Class Hero’ to ‘State Boss’ overnight. Who knew rebellion could be so… popular?
The Arakan Army has now established control over some key hangouts – the state capital Sittwe, and even the Western Command base – which are basically the ‘VIP lounges’ in the club of Rakhine. And yet, before you pop the champagne, there’s a catch. They now have 40,000 troops, but when it comes to governance, they might be a bit like my cousin at a family dinner: lots of promises but doesn’t know how to carve the turkey. The International Crisis Group basically said, “Sure, great job taking control, but how about doing something useful like keeping the lights on?”
But hey, they’re trying! They’ve even invited Rohingya representatives to the party. “Come on in, we’re inclusive!” they say. Like a bad Tinder date, they’re trying to build bridges while simultaneously setting fire to the dining room! In the past, during their military offensives, it seems they forgot to RSVP to the whole ‘respect for civilians’ rule; looting and burning neighborhoods isn’t exactly ‘community engagement,’ is it?
The coming years will test whether the group can translate its military dominance into effective governance
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
As they transition from ‘rebels’ to ‘governing authority,’ it’s like watching a high school outcast finally become prom king. Only now, they have to figure out how to dance without stepping on anyone’s toes! The Rohingya, bless them, have seen their fair share of heel-stepping over the years, and while the Arakan Army promising inclusion is a step in the right direction, actions, as they say, speak louder than inclusion brochures.
For the Rohingya, its ascent is a double-edged sword, offering hope for change but also exposing them to new risks
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
Now, imagine being the Rohingya, standing there, caught in the middle of all this. It’s like being a pacifist in a food fight – you want to stay out of trouble, but somehow, you’re still splattered with everything. You’ve got a group that might just offer you some respite from your persecution, but then pulls a “just kidding!” at the last minute by violating your rights. “Thanks for the hope, but could you not drop the ball on our basic humanity?”
The Arakan Army faces monumental challenges—think of it as managing a group project but with a lot more on the line than just a bad grade. If they want to actually rule effectively, they’ll have to ditch the rebellious attitude and learn how to actually govern. How do you manage poverty and ethnic tensions while keeping your cool and your fists down? Trust me, folks, this is no easy task.
The international community is peeking in, like your neighbors during a spicy argument. They need to hold the Arakan Army accountable for their actions but at the same time, make sure the Rohingya don’t end up collateral damage. Because let’s face it, we don’t want a repeat of history where those meant to protect simply forget about the ones who need it most.
In summary, the Arakan Army is rising like a phoenix—if the phoenix had a habit of lighting a few fires along the way. The future of Rakhine’s diverse communities rests on their ability to go from firing guns to firing up the engines of inclusive governance. Will they rise to the occasion, or will this be yet another episode in Rakhine’s tragic history? Only time will tell, but for now, I would recommend keeping your helmets on and your hopes cautiously optimistic.
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News’ point of view.
What the Arakan Army’s rise means for the Rohingya
The Arakan Army is rapidly establishing itself as the preeminent military and governing force in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, leading to a significant reconfiguration of the region’s political dynamics. Over the last year, the group has markedly enhanced its military presence and is making strides to function as a governing body. This development presents both potential benefits and considerable challenges for the inhabitants of Rakhine, particularly the Rohingya, a group that has faced systemic persecution for years.
The military accomplishments of the Arakan Army are notable and demand attention. By mid-October, this armed group had secured control of approximately two-thirds of Rakhine State, encompassing vital locales like the state capital Sittwe, the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, and the strategically essential Western Command base of the Myanmar military. This formidable consolidation is supported by the establishment of nine military zones throughout Rakhine, complemented by the deployment of thousands of troops in allied territories.
The trajectory of the Arakan Army, which began with just 26 members in 2009, has seen astonishing growth with its current force estimated at around 40,000 troops. This rapid escalation not only reflects its military capabilities but also underscores its adeptness at positioning itself as a legitimate alternative to the current Myanmar junta, which has faced widespread criticism and opposition.
Despite these battlefield successes, the Arakan Army confronts substantial governance hurdles. The International Crisis Group has observed that although the group has established a de facto governance structure over much of Rakhine, it is ill-equipped to deal with the pressing socioeconomic issues that plague the state. The forthcoming years will reveal whether the Arakan Army can convert its military strength into effective and inclusive governance.
In an effort to legitimize its governance, the Arakan Army has initiated steps to engage with a variety of communities in Rakhine, showcasing its commitment to inclusivity. It has previously managed administrative and judicial functions in certain regions, working to integrate Rohingya representatives into its decision-making processes. The group’s involvement in the recovery efforts following Cyclone Mocha in May 2023 also demonstrates its intention to establish itself as a governance entity that considers the needs of diverse groups.
Nevertheless, the Arakan Army’s history of violence complicates this narrative. During its offensive against junta forces in April and May, numerous reports emerged detailing the group’s violent acts against civilians, including shelling and the destruction of Rohingya neighborhoods in Buthidaung Township, resulting in mass displacement. These actions raise crucial questions about the group’s capacity to embody the principles of protection and inclusion it espouses.
The implications of the Arakan Army’s ascent are profound for the Rohingya. While its gestures towards inclusion might signal a shift, they must be substantiated by concrete actions to safeguard Rohingya rights and communities. The group’s treatment of the Rohingya during its military operations indicates an ongoing struggle for power and ethnic dominance within Rakhine, thereby putting the Rohingya in a precarious position.
For the Rohingya, the growth of the Arakan Army symbolizes a landscape of both potential relief from oppression and the uncertainty of new threats. While its influence may provide a measure of respite from the junta’s systematic repression, the necessitated governance approach that respects minority rights and civic inclusion remains an untested variable.
As the Arakan Army transitions into a role of governance, it will face monumental challenges. The state of Rakhine is riddled with poverty, displacement, and ethnic friction, necessitating a multifaceted approach that goes beyond merely military might. Successful governance will hinge upon a genuine commitment to inclusivity, socio-economic upliftment, and the cultivation of reconciliation among its diverse communities.
The manner in which the Arakan Army engages with the Rohingya will serve as a critical barometer for its potential as a governing body. Its ability to respond to the grievances of the Rohingya, integrate them into its governance frameworks, and extend protections can pave a path towards a more stable and inclusive state. Conversely, ongoing violence and exclusion will only exacerbate divisions within Rakhine.
The international community must not overlook its responsibility in directing Rakhine’s future. Diplomatic interactions with the Arakan Army should prioritize the safeguarding of minority rights and the promotion of inclusive governance frameworks. Concurrently, humanitarian efforts should be concentrated on addressing the urgent socioeconomic challenges faced by the Rohingya.
Accountability for human rights violations remains an absolute imperative. The actions taken by the Arakan Army during the Buthidaung campaign illustrate the perils of unchecked authority. Ensuring accountability for every party involved, including the Arakan Army, is indispensable for fostering trust and promoting justice within Rakhine.
The emergence of the Arakan Army marks a pivotal juncture in Rakhine’s tumultuous history. Its current military ascendancy juxtaposes the potential to escape decades of oppressive junta rule against the pressing need for inclusive governance that addresses systemic challenges. For the Rohingya, this evolving power dynamic is a double-edged sword, imbued with both potential for positive transformation and the risk of new vulnerabilities.
The journey forward for the Arakan Army and the state of Rakhine is sure to be laden with obstacles. Achieving success will depend on the willingness of the group to evolve beyond its legacy as a rebel force into a responsible governing authority for the community’s diverse populace, including the Rohingya. This transformative journey is one that must happen urgently, for the sake of peace and stability in the region.
- Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News’ point of view
What measures are being taken to prevent further violence against the Rohingya amidst the rise of the Arakan Army?
Efforts must remain focused on preventing further violence against the Rohingya and holding the Arakan Army accountable for any transgressions against civilians.
In essence, while the rise of the Arakan Army presents a complex web of opportunities and challenges for the Rohingya and other ethnic minorities in Rakhine State, the focus must shift to how this burgeoning force chooses to wield its power. Will it transcend its historical patterns of violence and exclusion, or will it simply replace one oppressive regime with another? The path forward is fraught with uncertainty, yet it holds the potential for a transformative shift in governance for the diverse communities in Rakhine.
The eyes of the world will be watching closely, and the hope remains that this moment in history can be a catalyst for positive change, fostering an environment where every community, including the Rohingya, can claim their rightful place—a place defined by dignity, rights, and a shared future.
