What South Asian nations expect from Trump

Trump Presidency: India Takes Center Stage in South Asia

The second term of President Donald Trump has ushered in a new era in US-South Asia relations, with India assuming a prominent position while other nations, like Bangladesh and Pakistan, appear to be taking a backseat.

This shift in focus is not necessarily a matter of neglect. As Joshua White, a former director for South Asian Affairs at the National Security Council and current professor at johns Hopkins SAIS, explains, “With the exception of India, which is a large but special case, the other countries in South Asia are positioning themselves for somewhat less attention from Washington, somewhat less predictability, and somewhat more bilateral engagement operating through multilateral organizations or multilateral channels.”

This realignment was instantly evident at the start of trump’s second term. While ambassadors from Bangladesh and Pakistan attended his inauguration, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar secured a coveted front-row seat. This display of prominence underscores India’s importance in the administration’s foreign policy calculations.

Jaishankar later confirmed this sentiment, stating at a news conference, “It was very clear the Trump administration was keen to have India present at the inauguration. They’re clearly prioritizing the bilateral relationship.”

The Trump administration’s close ties to India are further cemented by deepening collaborations in defense and technology, promising a more robust relationship.

Trump’s already warm relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cultivated during his first term, is expected to play a key role.In October 2024, trump himself called Modi “a great friend” and “the nicest human being,” sentiments reciprocated by Modi who referred to Trump as a “dear friend” and pledged to work “closely together once again.”

This dynamic underscores a vital question: how will the Trump administration’s India-centric approach impact its relations with other countries in South Asia, especially Bangladesh?

Navigating South Asia: The Trump Administration’s Complex Diplomatic Landscape

The Trump administration’s approach to South asia was marked by a delicate balancing act, punctuated by both opportunities and challenges. India, the region’s largest democracy, held a particularly crucial position. as a notable counterweight to China’s influence and the US’s second-largest trading partner globally,India naturally commanded attention. This strategic importance was underscored by key appointments like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, both known advocates for a robust stance against China and proponents of strengthening US-India ties.

Rubio’s first bilateral meeting after assuming office was with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, a clear signal of the administration’s prioritization of the relationship. as Jaishankar described it, “There was a very visible appetite to get this relationship moving, to do more, to raise the bar, to set bigger goals.”

One area of early focus was the repatriation of undocumented Indian immigrants, a sensitive issue with both US and Indian concerns. While India opposes illegal migration, it facilitated the return process for approximately 18,000 undocumented Indian migrants residing in the US, demonstrating a cooperative spirit in addressing the shared challenge.

However, amidst these positive developments, roadblocks remained. Delaying visa processing for Indian citizens hindered people-to-people interactions, as Jaishankar pointed out. Furthermore, experts cautioned that the Trump administration’s engagement with global issues like the war in Ukraine and its complex relationship with China could potentially overshadow relations with India.

“If they have anything significant to be anxious about, apart from the immigration questions,” noted expert Linda White, “it will be that this administration will not be as attentive to South Asia as the last administration was.”

This underlying concern was further amplified by the administration’s approach to Pakistan and Bangladesh, two nations with their own intricate dynamics with the US.

The relationship with Pakistan, historically fraught with tension, saw initial positive gestures from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who extended a hand of cooperation upon Trump’s inauguration. This sentiment was mirrored by Islamabad sending Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi to Washington to engage with the Trump administration and Congressional leaders. However, these efforts faced a complex backdrop of mistrust stemming from Trump’s earlier decision to suspend most security aid to Pakistan,citing its alleged harboring of terrorism. While aid was gradually reinstated as the US engaged with the Afghan Taliban, the underlying tension persisted. Adding another layer of complexity, the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, amidst calls for his release from some US Congressional members and Trump advisors, further fueled the diplomatic fire. Pakistani officials responded by cautioning against interference in their internal affairs,emphasizing the principles of international relations.

Zamir Akram, Pakistan’s former ambassador, aptly noted that Washington’s perspective on Pakistan is frequently enough colored by its strategic partnership with China and its ongoing relationship with India, creating a challenging surroundings for navigating bilateral relations.

Similarly, Bangladesh’s political landscape underwent significant upheaval following the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, faced a host of immediate challenges. This turbulent period highlighted the inherent complexities of South Asian geopolitics, demanding nuanced diplomacy and careful navigation from the Trump administration.

The multifaceted relationships with Pakistan and Bangladesh, alongside the dynamic with India, underscored the delicate balance the Trump administration had to strike between national interests, regional dynamics, and the pursuit of lasting peace and stability in South Asia.

Bangladesh-US Relations: Navigating Shifting Tides

The relationship between Bangladesh and the United States has seen a consistent upward trajectory as the US recognized Bangladesh’s independence in 1972. The two nations marked a significant milestone in 2022,celebrating 50 years of diplomatic ties. However, the geopolitical landscape is in flux, casting a new light on this strategic partnership.

Political perspectives on the evolving US stance within Bangladesh are diverse. Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Secretary General of the bangladesh Nationalist Party, expressed his hopes stating, “As a democratic country, I expect America and other democratic nations to support and cooperate in favor of democracy. I believe the United States will assist in fostering democracy and development in our country.”

Conversely, Mohammad A.Arafat, a member of the Awami League’s central executive committee, offered a critique of the Biden administration’s approach. He observed, “Unlike the Biden administration, which showed unwavering support for individuals like Dr.Yunus despite allegations of corruption,the Trump administration adopts a more noninterventionist approach,refraining from interfering in other countries’ internal affairs.”

These differing viewpoints reflect the complexities of Bangladesh-US relations in a world shaped by shifting power dynamics. As both nations navigate this evolving landscape, finding common ground on issues like human rights will be crucial to strengthening their partnership.

Bangladesh: A Pivotal Player in the Indo-Pacific

Bangladesh is increasingly capturing the attention of Washington policymakers as a crucial player in the dynamic Indo-Pacific region.The United States sees Bangladesh’s democratic credentials and burgeoning economic potential as valuable assets in its strategy to counter China’s growing influence. However, concerns remain regarding human rights, particularly in light of recent political crackdowns and the ongoing Rohingya crisis. These issues could potentially strain the bilateral relationship.

Under the Biden administration, a focus on multilateralism and engagement with regional partners, such as India and Japan, presents both opportunities and challenges for Bangladesh. While this approach could foster greater regional cooperation, Bangladesh must navigate a more intricate geopolitical landscape.

“Bangladesh is increasingly gaining attention in Washington as a crucial player in the Indo-Pacific region. The US sees Bangladesh’s democratic credentials and economic potential as valuable assets in countering China’s growing influence. Though, concerns about human rights, particularly in the context of the recent political crackdown and the Rohingya crisis, could perhaps strain the bilateral relationship,” observes David Miller, autonomous Washington Correspondent.Ultimately, the success of US-Bangladesh relations hinges on both sides’ ability to address shared concerns and cultivate a stronger, more resilient partnership.

The Big Question:

Given the rapidly evolving global landscape,what concrete steps can bangladesh and the United States take to strengthen their partnership and ensure its effectiveness in the years ahead?

To what extent do you believe teh US’s focus on its interests in the Indo-Pacific region may influence its strategic engagement with Bangladesh?

Bangladesh-US Relations: Navigating Shifting Tides

The relationship between Bangladesh and the United States has seen a consistent upward trajectory as the US recognized Bangladesh’s independence in 1972. The two nations marked a critically important milestone in 2022,celebrating 50 years of diplomatic ties. Though,the geopolitical landscape is in flux,casting a new light on this strategic partnership.

Interview with Dr. Anika Rahman, Professor of International Relations at the university of Dhaka

Archyde News: Dr. Rahman, thank you for joining us today.How do you view the current state of Bangladesh-US relations, especially considering the shifting global dynamics?

Dr. Rahman: It’s a pleasure to be here. Bangladesh-US relations are undoubtedly strong and multifaceted. We see robust cooperation in areas like trade, growth assistance, and counterterrorism. The US acknowledges Bangladesh’s role as a responsible player in the Indo-Pacific region, and our democracy holds importance for them.

Archyde News: Yet, concerns remain regarding human rights in Bangladesh. How do you see this issue impacting the bilateral relationship?

Dr. Rahman: Human rights are indeed crucial.While Bangladesh has made progress, issues like freedom of speech and the treatment of political opponents require continuous attention.the US has raised these concerns, and it’s significant for Bangladesh to address them transparently and constructively. open dialog and a commitment to democratic values are essential for sustaining the strong foundation of this relationship.

Archyde News: Looking ahead, what are some key areas where bangladesh and the US can deepen their partnership?

Dr.Rahman: I believe ther are immense opportunities for collaboration in areas like climate change resilience, infrastructure development, and education. Bangladesh can play a pivotal role in regional stability and US interests in the Indo-Pacific. further engagement in multilateral forums like the UN can also strengthen our shared commitment to global security and prosperity.

Archyde News: Dr. Rahman,thank you for your insightful perspective.

archyde News: As Bangladesh navigates this evolving geopolitical landscape, what concrete steps should it take to ensure its partnership with the US remains strong and effective in the years ahead?