what remains. The scenarios of war –

Up to 50,000 fighters. In addition to the ‘reservists. Up to 150,000 rockets and missiles. These are the estimates of the arsenal and strength of the Lebanese Hezbollah, relaunched by the Washington Post in the midst of fears linked to the escalation between the Party of God led by Hasan Nasrallah and Israel. Hezbollah’s rockets are capable of hitting as far as Tel Aviv, but the group seems to prefer the path of ‘caution’, remarks Orna Mizrahi of the Institute for National Security Studies. She is convinced that “we are only at the beginning of something new”. Hezbollah can count on missiles with a range of up to 500 kilometers, underlines CNN, which illustrates an arsenal with munitions of various ranges made up of 120,000-200,000 rockets and missiles (from Katyusha rockets to Scud missiles), in addition to drones, almost all supplied by Iran. Nasrallah spoke earlier this year of a force of more than 100,000 militiamen and “reservists,” although military analysts believe Hezbollah has between 30,000 and 50,000 fighters. The official toll of yesterday’s Israeli attacks in Lebanon, with the declared aim of hitting Hezbollah, is more than 550 dead, including 50 children according to the Beirut authorities. No distinction is being made so far between fighters and civilians. It was the bloodiest day for the Land of the Cedars since at least the 2006 war. Hezbollah targeted northern Israel with hundreds of missiles and rockets.

EXPANSION OF THE CONFLICT
Hostilities between Hezbollah, a Shiite group historically supported by Iran, and Israel are nothing new, but the escalation of the last week has raised fears of a further widening of the conflict. For analysts, the Post writes, the Israeli moves of the last week aim to force Hezbollah to end cross-border attacks linked to the conflict in the Gaza Strip and could be the prelude to a wider military commitment. Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel is changing the balance of power in the north (where there are about 60,000 displaced people, according to data reported in recent days by the Times of Israel) and to the security cabinet – as revealed by an Israeli official to CNN – he explained that the objective in Lebanon is to cut “Hezbollah out of the war with Hamas.” For nearly a year, Israeli forces have been pounding the Gaza Strip, which fell under Hamas control in 2007 in response to the group’s October 7 attack on Israel. More than 41,000 people have reportedly died in the Palestinian enclave. Hezbollah, the Post writes, is a “bigger, more strategic and better armed enemy” and there are concerns about Israel’s “resources and energy” to deal with another large-scale offensive.

MORE POWERFUL THAN HAMAS
Hezbollah’s arsenal is more “sophisticated” and “destructive” than Hamas’s. Israel’s military and intelligence superiority remains. According to CNN, the Party of God has lost at least 500 fighters since October, including leaders such as Fouad Shukr and Ibrahim Aqil, the latter killed in a raid that decapitated the leadership. And, according to statements by an Israeli official to Israeli media, Israeli raids in recent days in Lebanon have significantly dented Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal and halved the number of missiles with precision strike capability, while the number of rockets with a range of up to 40 kilometers has been reduced to a quarter. In Lebanon, in addition to the human toll, a war risks costing Hezbollah dearly, as well as the Lebanese, with the risk of losing political influence. Yesterday, before launching the attacks, the Israeli military urged Lebanese civilians in the southern and eastern areas of the country, where the raids were concentrated, to abandon the areas where Hezbollah weapons are present.

But, Lama Fakih, head of Human Rights Watch for the Middle East and North Africa, cited by the Post, highlighted that it is not the responsibility of civilians “to know where military targets are.” Security experts, the American newspaper writes, have questioned the effectiveness of the warnings, which arrived shortly before the attacks and were also sent to areas of Lebanon that were not the scene of operations. Imad Kreidieh, head of Ogero, the manager of telecommunications infrastructure in Lebanon, confirmed that the country yesterday received more than 80,000 phone calls generated by the Israeli military. Information Minister Ziad Makary spoke of “psychological warfare.”

POLITICS AND RELIGION
A militia founded in the early 1980s and among the most powerful in the Middle East, Hezbollah is much more than an armed group. It is a political force, present in the Beirut Parliament, and – even if in 2022 it lost the majority it had with its allies – it continues to have significant influence. The popularity of the Party of God, now in crisis, has historically been based on the services guaranteed to the population, especially in the Shiite-majority areas (Shiites represent about 32% of the Lebanese population). And Iran, with a political identity based on Shiism, supports Hezbollah like Hamas, with which the movement led by Nasrallah shares the ‘positions’ on Israel. In the aftermath of October 7, Hezbollah ‘took the field’ precisely “in solidarity” with the Palestinian group. The Islamic Republic does not fail to support the Houthis of Yemen either, whom Hezbollah has trained like fighters from other Shiite groups in Iraq. The ‘axis of groups led by Iran also crosses Syria, where Iran boasts a direct presence. And since October 7 of last year, coordination between the various formations has strengthened. “We must not give Hezbollah a break,” said this morning the Chief of Staff of the IDF, Herzi Halevi.