The timeout has been extended by an additional day. The party executive committee will only convene on Wednesday. This is where the initial steps will be taken for the upcoming weeks.
In this way, the team for any coalition negotiations could already be established. Alongside Kickl himself, the two general secretaries could include Christian Hafenecker and Michael Schnedlitz. Also included may be club director Norbert Nemeth, economic expert and former ÖBB manager Arnold Slate, and the two MPs Susanne Fürst and Dagmar Belakowitsch.
Content-wise—as has been noted on the election night—they intend to push for blue points in negotiations that will realistically occur with the ÖVP, particularly regarding migration. However, the differences with the turquoise party should not be too significant.
It will be intriguing to see how the FPÖ addresses a dilemma on a different level: Months ago, FPÖ General Secretary Hafenecker announced that the FPÖ would establish a U-committee to address the corona pandemic in the new legislative period. With their electoral gains, the Blues can now undertake this initiative independently.
Corona: Is the U-Committee Coming?
It is hard to fathom that the FPÖ would propose a U-committee as an initial move aimed squarely at the ÖVP, which could become its (possible) coalition partner. However, if the FPÖ chooses not to pursue this option, they may alienate a significant portion of voters who supported the party due to its stance against the Covid measures implemented by the turquoise-blue government, a central issue during the current election campaign.
A plausible compromise could be an independent evaluation commission similar to what the ÖVP and FPÖ agreed upon in Lower Austria.
This assumes that serious negotiations will take place at all. Because, especially after election night, the ÖVP is reluctant to form a coalition with the Kickl-FPÖ, while conversely, the FPÖ does not wish to forgo its party leader as a candidate for chancellor. “The FPÖ will certainly not touch the hot stove again,” remarked a party insider, referencing the disputes from the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition that erupted in 1999 after then-party leader Jörg Haider withdrew. A similar scenario could unfold this time if Kickl were to step down to the role of club chairman.
FPÖ Hopes for Nehammer’s Departure
The Blues speculate about the departure of Chancellor Karl Nehammer, which might alleviate some of the burdens, particularly under pressure from ÖVP-governed federal states like Lower Austria.
In this context, it will be interesting to see how the ÖVP behaves during the constitutive meeting of the National Council, especially with the election of the presidium approaching. According to political tradition, the party with the highest vote count, currently the FPÖ, has the right to the first president—who holds the second highest position in the republic after the Federal President.
A simple majority is needed for the election, so the FPÖ requires the support of the ÖVP and/or SPÖ (the Greens have already been ruled out). While the red parliamentary club insists that they will only make a decision after evaluating the candidates, Burgenland’s governor Peter Doskozil is hesitantly approving the post for the FPÖ. The ÖVP, on the other hand, is remaining rather quiet.
A candidate likely to be acceptable to these parties is the third President of the National Council, Norbert Hofer, who, however, is expected to withdraw from federal politics. The 53-year-old, who was ousted as party leader by Kickl in 2021, might move to Burgenland state politics. Potential candidates include Susanne Fürst and the Ombudsman Walter Rosenkranz. Lawyer Fürst is regarded as a close confidant of Kickl and most recently served as the FPÖ’s foreign policy spokesperson. Rosenkranz gained broader public recognition as the FPÖ’s presidential candidate in 2022, securing 17.7 percent of the votes and placing second behind the incumbent Alexander Van der Bellen.
The timeout for the coalition negotiations has been extended by one day, with the party executive committee scheduled to meet on Wednesday. This meeting will mark the first steps towards forming a coalition in the coming weeks.
This committee meeting could pave the way for establishing a team dedicated to coalition negotiations. Key figures in this team may include party leader Herbert Kickl, alongside general secretaries Christian Hafenecker and Michael Schnedlitz. Other potential members are club director Norbert Nemeth, economic expert Arnold Slate, and two MPs, Susanne Fürst and Dagmar Belakowitsch.
Focus Areas in Coalition Talks
Content-wise, the FPÖ aims to mark its territory during negotiations with the ÖVP, particularly emphasizing issues related to migration. However, they expect minimal ideological differences with the ÖVP’s “turquoise” approach.
Addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic
Another intriguing aspect of FPÖ’s agenda revolves around handling their promise to establish a U-committee focused on the COVID-19 pandemic, which was addressed by General Hafenecker months ago. The FPÖ’s recent electoral gains position them to pursue this initiative independently.
Will the U-Committee be Established?
The establishment of a U-committee to counter the ÖVP might be perceived as a hostile move toward a potential coalition partner. Conversely, ignoring this commitment risks alienating FPÖ voters who supported the party for taking a stance against the previous government’s handling of COVID-19 measures. This issue was vital in their recent election campaign.
A potential compromise could involve creating an independent evaluation commission akin to what the ÖVP and FPÖ arranged in Lower Austria.
Potential Complications in Coalition Formation
As negotiations loom, the FPÖ and ÖVP face inherent tensions. Notably, the ÖVP has shown reluctance to partner with the FPÖ under Kickl’s leadership, while Kickl remains adamant about leading the coalition as chancellor candidate. An insider’s remark highlights the FPÖ’s determination to avoid past pitfalls experienced during their previous coalition with the ÖVP in 1999, which ended in discord when party leader Jörg Haider stepped down.
FPÖ’s Speculation on Political Dynamics
The FPÖ is speculating on the possible departure of Chancellor Karl Nehammer, which could alleviate tensions. This speculation arises from pressure mounted by regional ÖVP leaders, particularly from states governed by the ÖVP, such as Lower Austria.
Amidst this backdrop, all eyes will be on the ÖVP’s stance during the National Council’s constitutive meeting, especially concerning the election of the presidium. Traditionally, the party with the highest vote count—in this case, the FPÖ—is entitled to nominate the first president, a position second only to the Federal President.
Political Negotiation Dynamics
A simple majority is requisite for the election, thus the FPÖ must secure the support of either the ÖVP or the SPÖ, given that the Greens have ruled out collaboration. The SPÖ has indicated that any decision will be made after careful candidate evaluations.
The governor of Burgenland, Peter Doskozil, remains undecided yet has voiced some openness towards allowing the FPÖ to assume this crucial role. Meanwhile, the ÖVP continues to maintain a low profile and is cautious about its public stance.
Potential Candidates for the Presidency
| Candidate Name | Position | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Norbert Hofer | Third President of the National Council | Likely to withdraw from federal politics |
| Susanne Fürst | Former Foreign Policy Spokesperson | Cited as a potential candidate |
| Walter Rosenkranz | Ombudsman | Pursued the presidency in 2022 |
Hofer, who was ousted from the party leadership by Kickl in 2021, is considered a suitable candidate but may pivot towards Burgenland state politics. Additionally, Fürst, a confidant of Kickl and former foreign policy spokesperson, is mentioned as a contender alongside Ombudsman Rosenkranz, who garnered 17.7% of the vote in the 2022 presidential race.
Key Takeaways
As the FPÖ navigates coalition negotiations and strategic planning, the political atmosphere remains dynamic. The outcomes of these discussions will significantly influence Austria’s political landscape and the FPÖ’s future direction. Understanding the roles of key figures and their potential impacts will be critical as developments unfold in the coming weeks.
