What is Zelensky talking about when he talks about a ‘victory plan’ for Ukraine?

When Zelensky took to the streets of kyiv and filmed a video of himself surrounded by his clique just after the Russian invasion, many analysts praised his oratory skills. He knew how to talk to the camera. He was able to charm an audience. His acting skills were evident, they wrote. Five years after his retirement from television, Zelensky plays now the most important role of his life. And this is not an easy metaphor. The president plays a key role in all his interventions towards his Western partners, so that we hear more and more about paz y victoriawithout anyone knowing exactly what either of them means.

To achieve its goals, Ukraine has a ‘victory plan’, A plan that has been kept secret until now, but could be revealed this Thursday after his meeting with the American president, Joe Biden, and the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. A plan that is not so secret It doesn’t seem like a great planat least after the leaks that have been accumulating between kyiv and Washington. Of the theoretical five central points that comprise it, four have already been revealed in broad outline: the geopolitical role of Ukraine, the strengthening of kyiv’s armaments, the importance of the offensive in Kursk to put pressure on the Kremlin and the internal and external keys to economic reconstruction.

And what does all this mean? Translated in the interventions of Zelensky himself and his closest circle – such as the chief of staff, Andriy Yermak—Ukraine’s ambitions include NATO membership, the possibility of using Western long-range missiles on Russian soil, forcing Putin to sit at the negotiating table away from his current maximalist positions, and strengthening ties with regions, companies and countries in different parts of the world.

Negotiations with Russia do not follow the Ukrainian path that do not respect international laws, Even though bureaucrats in many countries find it difficult to achieve that position. The last to publicly express the need to be “realistic”, and assuming that a part of the Ukrainian territory remains “under Russian occupation, temporarily” has been Petr Pavelformer NATO general, president of the Czech Republic and a staunch ally of kyiv in recent years.

“Maybe someone wants a Nobel [de la paz] for his political biography for a frozen truce, “instead of real peace, but the only rewards Putin will give in return will be more suffering and disasters,” Zelensky warned this Wednesday before the United Nations in a message that has been found to have several recipients.

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The day before, on the American channel ABC, he argued that peace is closer than people think. Revealing how to achieve it and discussing the details with the still president Joe Biden, as well as candidates Harris and Donald Trump (with whom he does not seem to be meeting), is one of the main missions of the Ukrainian president on his trip to the United States. The other one who would like his own people in Ukraine And the whole world is tasked with clarifying how the new strategy differs from the old peace plan that Zelensky himself presented on November 15, 2022.

Just four days earlier, the Ukrainian Army had recaptured Kherson and two months had passed since the successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv. kyiv was calling for the Complete withdrawal of Russian military forces from Ukrainethe creation of a tribunal to condemn Russian war crimes committed in the country or guarantees against future aggression from Moscow. Perhaps now Zelensky is in a better position to ask for something similar.

One of the main results of the Kursk operation, and one that is often overlooked in analyses, is the new leeway it has given Kiev to decide when and where to attack. Something that was unthinkable until August 6, when the incursion began. Not only because Russia had the initiative on the battlefield, but because attacking Russian territory was a red line that is impossible to cross. Just as the sending of offensive weapons was first, then self-propelled artillery, then the HIMARSlos LeopardWestern missiles or F-16s… All of them were denied to Zelensky. And all of them have been within Ukraine’s borders for months now.

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The distance between yes and no has been in many cases the time and insistenceAs a source from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense told this newspaper in winter, “when the F-16s arrive we will be able to order other fighters and then it will be a real challenge.” game changer“We are now ready to order the F-35s.”

Step by step. Slow, but without stopping. Fighting against political calculations and Western fear, while Zelensky’s Ukraine is making its own. A process in which the demonstration that the war was not at a standstill and the systemic breaking of Putin’s red lines have also been useful.

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Neither the use of Western material by Ukrainian troops, nor the reconquest of territories recognised by referendum in the Russian Constitution, or the latest occupation of more than 1,000 km² in Kursk have brought about a significant change in the Kremlin’s military response, Ukraine claims. The war has not escalated into a nuclear conflict and none of the fears of Biden, Olaf Scholz or Emmanuel Macron have been fulfilled. However, the objectives of the roadmap designed and executed by kyiv have been fulfilled: to economically sink, militarily damage and politically punish the Kremlin. And for this, in addition to foreign aid, there is a factor that shows that Ukraine does not expect the West’s yes to its decisions: the indigenous production of military material.

Without the flourishing of its own industry, Ukraine would not have been able to expel the Russian fleet from the Black Sea or systematically destroy Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, military airfields and ammunition stockpiles. The latest and most important of these was this very month of September, in Tver and Krasnodar, where the Kremlin stored enough bombs, shells and missiles feed their front line for two to three months of combat. In a massive fire, Ukraine burned hundreds of millions of rubles in just a few hours, and pierced Russian defenses without having to use Western equipment that is waiting its turn while Washington or Berlin drag their feet.

Ukraine’s military industry is beginning to flourish, with deals with foreign companies to manufacture ammunition being signed almost every week. Production of sea, land and air drones, as well as artillery, mortars and armoured vehicles has multiplied. The latest addition to the list is ballistic missiles.

It is no coincidence that Aleksandr Kamyshinthe chief architect of the industry’s revival as the former minister of strategic industries, has been promoted to adviser to the president. In videos of Zelensky’s visit on Monday to the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, where 155-millimeter artillery shells are produced, he was seen smiling, filming with his mobile phone, while his president signed one of the shells. A well-placed sign stood out in the back: “Victory on the ground begins in the factory.”

We must all do our part in the fight for freedom — from the workers in Scranton who make Pennsylvania the arsenal of democracy to the brave Ukrainian soldiers protecting their country.

We stand with Ukraine in their just defense of their homeland in the face of Russian… pic.twitter.com/5VnYRfQOm5

— Governor Josh Shapiro (@GovernorShapiro) September 23, 2024

There are other ways to bring victory closer. Or at least avoid defeat. The €35 billion loan that the European Union granted to kyiv last week is one. The ability to set the agenda, as Zelensky must do now, on the eve of the US elections, is another.

Two and a half years later, the president has understood who his interlocutors are and how they think. Perhaps that is why It no longer matters so much if the ‘peace plan’ is so different from the ‘victory’ plan or whether the proposal is criticised on both sides of the pond. If half a year ago, the last months of the US campaign were seen as a discussion of a forced peace with Putin, now, instead, a possible plan for victory is being discussed. The actor continues to play the most important role of his life: that of convincing. Because in the end, for Ukraine both peace and victory come from the same place: the defeat of Russia.

When Zelensky took to the streets of kyiv and filmed a video of himself surrounded by his clique just after the Russian invasion, many analysts praised his oratory skills. He knew how to talk to the camera. He was able to charm an audience. His acting skills were evident, they wrote. Five years after his retirement from television, Zelensky plays now the most important role of his life. And this is not an easy metaphor. The president plays a key role in all his interventions towards his Western partners, so that we hear more and more about paz y victoriawithout anyone knowing exactly what either of them means.