(CNN Spanish) — When Hugo Chavez ruled in Venezuela, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva went to Brazil, and consolidated their popularity Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador and Nestor Kirchner y Cristina Fernandez in Argentina, Colombia continued to travel a path parallel to the wave of leftist governments that dominated the preferences of Latin American voters at the beginning of the 21st century.
But now, Colombia has turned. After several years of right-wing or center-right governments in the figures of Alvaro Uribe, Juan Manuel Santos and more recently Ivan Dukenow the candidate of the Historical Pact, Gustavo Petro, has just won the elections with a progressive program.
Colombia is not alone. In Chile, Gabriel Boric became president in 2021, the same year as Xiomara Castro in Honduras and Pedro Castillo in Peru. Before them, Alberto Fernández in Argentina (2019) and Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico (2018) already ruled.
As at the beginning of the 21st century, the progressive candidates have won the last presidential elections, and in 2022 the transcendental elections in Brazil still lie ahead, where Jair Bolsonaroone of the last presidents and referents of the right in the continent, will try to be re-elected competing with none other than Lula, a symbol of the left who is trying to return to power and leading in the polls.
What differences might this new wave of progressive governments have with the previous one? Experts and analysts consulted by CNN offer this roadmap.
Similarities and differences in contexts
Almost 20 years have passed since Chavez —deceased in 2013— promoted ideas of a “21st Century Socialism” during the World Social Forum in Caracas in 2005, and the contexts have changed.
It was a different Latin America, which was trying adjust to the great changes in the United States following the attacks of September 11, 2001 and its relative absence in the region, with countries going through or coming out of major economic crises —such as Argentina, Brazil y Mexico- and that it was beginning to benefit from the high prices of raw materials.
The current world, on the other hand, is just emerging from the covid-19 pandemic and its effects on health and the economy, and Latin America has not yet recovered from the economic collapse caused by confinement, while some countries, such as Argentina and especially the Venezuela of Chavez — today governed by Nicolas Maduro–, they were already in crisis before the pandemic.
Meanwhile the war in ukraine has further strained supply chains, especially due to the oil boom, and pushes up the price of raw materials once more, this time accompanied by a high inflation In almost all the world.
Towards a new progressivism?
“More than a new left, there is a new progressivism, which differs from the first cycle we had in the 2000s with Chávez, with Morales, with Correa,” said Mauricio Jaramillo, a professor at the Faculty of International, Political and Urban Studies at the Universidad del Rosario, in Colombia, to CNN.
“They were more personalist progressives, they wanted to make refoundations, new constitutions, new legal frameworks, as happened effectively in Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, now we have a more moderate and multi-sector progressive, it is no longer the figure of a one person, It is no longer Boric, it is not Petro, it is not Fernández, today we are talking regarding a much more moderate and focused progressivism, more center-left than left, more responsible towards the market, more moderate towards the relationship with the United States,” he added. .
For Jaramillo there is also a common denominator in the energy transition —part of the Petro platform— and an agenda linked to caring for the environment, considering that in the past Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela focused on an extractivist model.
Thus, he sees a more limited margin of action for this new left, which in no case has absolute power or large majorities in congress, and which will have to make concessions.
“In the case of Argentina we saw it because of the agreement with the IMF, in the case of Chile due to the open market model that must be maintained, and in Colombia there are macro and country risk indicators that must be maintained. Therefore there will be profound but gradual and very gradual reforms, without abrupt and radical changes. Even more so in a context of war in Ukraine that has an impact on inflation, inputs and international trade,” he said.
The consequences of the pandemic
Sandra Borda, international political analyst and former candidate for senator for the New Liberalism in Colombia, believes that the regional trend responds in part to the covid-19 pandemic that began in 2020.
“Due to the dynamics of the pandemic and confinement, in all parts of the world there are transition processes towards governments of different tendencies”, said to Juan Pablo Varsky, from CNN en Español. “Simply because people are collecting the result of management in health and economic matters.”
“In the case of Latin America, there is a movement to the left, but it is not the same left as a decade ago, it is not once more the pink wave of the times of Chávez, Lula, Unasur and CELAC. I believe that this movement It is from a very different left, a little more modern and with the intention of acting collectively but under different premises”, said.
“There is a tendency, the governments that are leaning more to the right have fared worse than those governments that today are leaning to the left,” said Eduardo Gamarra, professor at Florida International University, to Rafael Romo of CNN en Español.
Gamarra said, however, that “it is important not to put the entire Latin American left in the same bag. The Chilean left has a quite different trajectory, it has been a government. The communist party (of Chile) is a different party from the communist parties region of”.
“The real test that this government will have to pass will be its position on human rights violations in those leftist governments that still claim to be democracies.”
“More brakes than accelerators”
Andrés Oppenheimer, of CNN, referred to a new “pink tide”but also considered that it will have “more brakes than accelerators”, and that in the case of Argentina and Mexico elections are approaching that might lead to a change of government.
“Unlike what happened between 2005 and 2015, when Hugo Chavez traveled around Latin America promising loans in the midst of a bonanza in commodity prices, today the situation is very different: Venezuela is bankrupt, and Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Peru and Colombia itself are also going through a bad economic time following a devastating pandemic.”
According to data from the World Bank, in 2020 the main regional economies they had huge falls: 11.1% in Peru, 9.9% Argentina, 8.3% Mexico, 6.8% Colombia, 5.8% Chile and 4.1% Brazil.
“Even if the prices of raw materials rise somewhat, Due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the countries of the region will not have the funds for extremist adventures, and they will have to seek investment like few times before,” he said.
