In the second week of the administration of the Minister of Economy, Silvina Batakis, the dollar blue closed the week at a record high of $293 and so did financial dollars (counted with liquidation -CCL- and MEP). On Friday, the blue climbed $4 and $20 for the week, while the CCL closed at $301 and the MEP at $291.
The rise in parallel dollars occurred following the decision of the Central Bank not to increase the rate of Fixed deadlines following learning that June inflation was 5.3%. Previously, Batakis had assured that he would look for the rates are higher than inflation, but in the end it did not give a signal in that sense.
Many analysts consider that not raising the rates of time deposits when there is a sharp acceleration in inflation that will exceed 7% in July is “setting the foreign exchange market on fire”. not only once morest inflation but once morest the rise of the dollar. To avoid this, specialists maintain, the BCRA should at least increase the monthly yield to 5%. In May, following April inflation reached 6%, the Bank Center returned to
implement another rate hike for fixed terms. In this case, it raised its reference rate by 200 basis points, from 47% to 49%, and with that dragged the rates of fixed terms to 48% per year.
It was the fifth time during 2022 that the BCRA has adjusted its reference rate upwards in the midst of an escalation in prices. These rates are the yields that the Central Bank grants to the banks for the Liquidity Letters (Leliq): the higher they are, the more remuneration the banks will give to the savers for the fixed terms.
The rate hike was also part of the economic program agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which among other issues includes the implementation of positive real rates for savers and a reserve accumulation policy for the BCRA.
In addition to the decision not to raise the fixed-term rate now, analysts attribute the increase in the dollar to growing doubts regarding whether the government will actually implement a fiscal adjustment. According to what they say, in the case of blue, the escalation is because the lack of dollars is notorious and the measures taken so far do not generate enough confidence to invest in pesos.
The lack of confidence is precisely one of the main issues fueling the dollar: following the market calmed down a bit with Batakis’s message of balancing public finances, the climate turned sour with the new restrictions on the tourist dollar.
In addition, negative expectations are influenced by rumors of new restrictions to operate with the MEP and CCL dollar, in which a possible new increase in “parking” is expected (the time a bond must be held in the portfolio before being able to sell it once morest Dollars).
