2024-11-20 03:00:00
Trump‘s second presidential term heralds stronger and more profound geopolitical upheavals than during his first presidency.
No one should have been surprised by Donald Trump’s triumphant return to the White House. The 47th President of the United States surfed a wave of “clearance” which saw almost every ruling party in the world face severe sanctions at the polls in 2024.
In truth, Vice President Kamala Harris even achieved the best electoral results of all the candidates for reappointment in rich countries this year, despite the historically popular candidacy of Donald Trump, which testifies to a well-orchestrated campaign and the astonishing American economic dynamism compared to the rest of the world.
The exasperation of a majority of voters in the face of the lack of control over so many l’inflation what of l’immigration decided otherwise. In a hyperpolarized information field, where two halves of America only listen to their own arguments, even prejudices, Kamala Harris could only fail. No party has ever managed to hold on to the White House when so many Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.
Trump more powerful than in 2016
The first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years, with his victory in almost all demographic groups in almost all regions, Donald Trump will not only have a strong mandate, but also a Congress under his control and a conservative majority on the Supreme Court. Her administration will have few counter-powers against her to implement its vast domestic program, but also radically reshape the federal and institutional workings.
Donald Trump’s worldview has not changed one bit, as has his unilateralism and transactional approach to foreign policy, summed up by “America first.”
The return of a Trump more intoxicated than ever by his power could, however, still prove to be more destabilizing on the international scene.
Some people dream that the American foreign policy of the second Trump administration is simply a repeat of that conducted under his first term. We are reassured by remembering the absence of major war (other than the military presence in Afghanistan, already in the phase of withdrawal) and even some successes, notably a revitalized North American free trade agreement, the agreements of Abraham, fairer cost-sharing among NATO members and new, stronger security alliances in Asia.
And Donald Trump, himself, is still the same person he was four years ago, for better and for worse. His view of the world has not changed one iota.such as his unilateralism and his transactional approach to foreign policy, summed up by “America first”.
A much more dangerous world
But other things have changed. First of all, while the elected president will once again leave it to his entourage to manage public affairs, this time it will be a question of advisors even more ideologically marked on the right and quicker to implement without delay its “America First” program.
The “senior state officials,” who had often slowed down the president’s impulsive decisions – and the novice loyalists who subsequently replaced them – are no longer there. Donald Trump’s foreign policy advisers during his second term will be much more loyal than at the start of his first term and more experienced than at the end of it.
Given the height of the stakes, a foreign policy that remains unpredictable can produce much more destabilizing effects than in 2016.
More importantly, the world has become more dangerous since his last term. The context was then more favorable to it, with historically low interest rates and a less conflictual geopolitical landscape. Trump’s leadership will now face many pitfalls: two regional wars, heightened competition with China, chaos-generating policies carried out by rogue states like Russia, Iran and North Korea, a sluggish global economy and disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence.
Given these much higher stakesa foreign policy, certainly based on “America first”, but eminently unpredictable, can therefore produce much more destabilizing effects than in 2016. If Donald Trump’s transactional approach, reinforced by his status as president of the most powerful country in the world, will always be able to guarantee him some victories in foreign policy, the risk of seeing things get out of hand is much greater in this environment.
Warmonger and pacifist
China is the best example. Donald Trump will adopt towards him a much harder line after relations stabilized under the Biden administration. He will start by increasing tariffs on Chinese imports to close the bilateral trade deficit.
Faced with serious economic problems, Beijing will undoubtedly seek to avoid an unnecessary crisis. But everything will depend on Donald Trump’s tariff policy. If it is too aggressive, China will reject any negotiation and retaliate. Also, it is likely that the confrontational approach favored by Donald Trump’s advisors and by Congressional Republicans will lead to a sharp deterioration in relations and a new Cold War which will ultimately increase the risk of direct military confrontation.
Trump’s second term could be the event that forces the European Union to provide a determined and united response to the need for it to achieve strategic autonomy.
In the Middle Eastthe president-elect will try to include Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords, while letting Israel continue its wars as it sees fit, without exerting the slightest pressure aimed at limiting the humanitarian toll or the risk of escalation.
Even more worrying, Donald Trump will support, even actively encourage, a decision by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emboldened by the arrival of his friend at the White House, to resolve the Iranian nuclear threat once and for all, at the risk of a wider conflagration and an energy crisis.
Regarding the Ukrainian conflictDonald Trump wants, on the contrary, to be very pacifist. He promised to end the war in Ukraine in “one day” – perhaps even before his inauguration – by unilaterally pressure on Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin to accept a ceasefire that freezes the conflict along the current front lines.
Donald Trump intends to use military aid to kyiv as a means of pressure on both parties. It remains to be seen whether the two presidents will accept these conditions.
Europe facing its destiny
Much will depend on Europe’s reaction. NATO’s frontline states — Poland, the Baltics and the Nordics — view Ukraine’s defense as essential to their own national security and would be willing to bear the significant costs of protecting it. Ukraine if the United States escapes. Others might welcome the possibility of a deal, whether for ideological reasons, like Hungary, for political reasons, like Italy, or for budgetary reasons, like Germany.
Donald Trump’s second term could thus be the event that would force the European Union to provide a determined and united response to the need for it to achieve strategic autonomy. Conversely, it could just as easily reinforce existing divisions within the EU, seriously weaken the transatlantic alliance and invite Russia to continue its aggression.
Donald Trump’s return at a time of intensifying geopolitical turbulence will open a period of increased volatility and uncertainty on the global stage. Capable even more than in 2016 of provoking both catastrophic ruptures and improbable breakthroughsTrump 2.0 is a harbinger of a stronger and deeper geopolitical recession.
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How might Trump’s foreign policy approach in a second term affect international relations with aggressive states like Russia and China?
And potentially grants concessions to Russia. This approach, while aiming to bring about a swift resolution, raises concerns among experts about legitimizing Russia’s aggression and emboldening its future actions.
while some policies may echo past actions during Trump’s first administration, the geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically since then. With an increasingly assertive China, rogue states like Russia and North Korea exhibiting more aggressive behaviors, and multiple regional conflicts threatening stability, the stakes are higher. Trump’s second term could very well usher in a more confrontational and unpredictable approach that may further complicate international relations and increase the risk of conflict, both on a regional and global scale.
The overall consensus is that while Trump maintains a consistent “America First” ideology, the combination of a more ideologically aligned advisory team and a volatile international context could lead to outcomes that are far less manageable than those experienced during his earlier presidency. Thus, the potential for instability and conflict could increase significantly under his leadership, impacting not only the U.S. but global geopolitical dynamics.