2023-05-08 14:57:00
A new survey positioned the Front of All as the force with the most votes, both for the presidential elections and for the governorship, in the Buenos Aires province for the next Elections 2023. However, the territory with the highest census in the entire country shows a scenario of thirds forced by the figure of Javier Miley. The provincial president Axel Kicillof He was considered the best to govern the province, but not to combat insecurity.
the survey of Federico González and Associates He carried out the measurement between the first days of May and located the current governor as the most competitive figure of the ruling party, although with possible well-positioned competitors in both spaces of the opposition.
Although the data is prior to the three elections that were held this Sunday, May 7 in La Rioja, Jujuy and Misiones, it would ratify a victory for the ruling party as well as in those provincial territories that decided to split their national competition elections.
The hard defeat of Javier Milei in La Rioja arouses the alarm in Tucumán
What will be the most voted party in the Province of Buenos Aires?
Regarding the vote for space in the presidential elections, the Frente de Todos appears as the winning force in the Province of Buenos Aires, with a potential 28.5% of the votes.
This scenario would ratify the ruling party headed today by Axel Kicillof (still without a defined candidate for the presidency) in the province, albeit by a minimal margin: behind is Juntos por el Cambio with 27.3%.
What this survey does confirm is the disintegration of bicoalitionism and the implementation of the famous scenario of thirds forced by the figure of Javier Miley. In this item, La Libertad Avanza reaches 23.4%, despite not yet having a definite candidate for governor.
If each space is broken down according to the power of its candidates, the economist is the one with the highest endorsements with 19.9%. behind are located Cristina Fernandez de Kirchnerwho has not yet defined whether she will compete in these elections, for the Frente de Todos (17.8%) and Patricia Bullrich for Together for Change (17.6%).
The triumph of federalism
In the case of the Vice President, it is one of the biggest unknowns for the upcoming election: although she clarified that she will not be the central option to go for the re-election of pan-Peronism, the flame of the operative clamor still persists among those who want “the third ” management.
Bullrich, for his part, is already launched and competing with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. According to the consultant, the Head of Government adds 8.6% once morest the almost 18 points of the former Minister of National Security.
Voting intentions for governor
In the case of the dispute over the largest province in the country, the results are also positive for the Frente de Todos, in a scenario with 17 potential candidates and no ballot in the province. The ruling party is imposed by 30.1% once morest 29.7% of Together for Change. In third place were the libertarians, but this time further away than in the national dispute with 15%.
In this scenario there is a caveat: the figure of José Luis Espert. Milei’s former provincial ally and his label (Avanza Libertad) merged with Together for Change for these elections. The national deputy adds 9.8% alone, being the fourth most elected space-candidate according to Federico González y Asociados. However, it is still unknown whether the endorsements that brought him to Congress will be transferred to the Cambiemite coalition.
Within the Frente de Todos, Kicillof’s hegemony is notorious: he has 26.4% compared to 2.1% for Martín Insaurralde, his Chief of Staff, and 1.6% for Victoria Tolosa Paz, the closest Minister of Social Development. Alberto Fernandez.
The dispute in the cambiemismo is more fragmented: Diego Santilli added 10.9% of voting intention followed by Cristian Ritondo (5.8%), Joaquín de la Torre (5.5%), Javier Iguacel (3.1% ), Néstor Grindetti (2.3%) and Martín Tetaz (2.1%).
In another possible scenario and with eight pre-candidates, the results also continue to be favorable for the Peronist alliance, although with a lower percentage. There Axel Kicillof as the only candidate measured 30% and the three from Together for Change (Santilli with 12.7%, de la Torre with 8.4% and Ritondo with 8.2%) touched 29.3%. In the case of La Libertad Avanza, if the figure were Sebastián Pareja, he would lower his percentage to 14.5%, while Espert would improve his performance by adding 10.2%.
Kicillof is the “most capable” to govern but not to combat insecurity
Another section raised by the consultant was to locate a top five by capacities and there the results were paradoxical. For 29.4%, the current governor is the best qualified to manage the destinies of the province, but he was far from achieving unanimity: 26.4% said that it would be Diego Santilli, 26.1% Joaquín de la Torre, the 25.3% José Luis Espert and 22.8% Cristian Ritondo.
However, when consulting which would be the best candidate to combat crime, the most chosen was de la Torre (27.1%). The former mayor of San Miguel is one of the figures who wants to be governor and is supported by Patricia Bullrich. Behind him was Ritondo, former Minister of Security of the Buenos Aires province during the administration of María Eugenia Vidal (25.9%). Espert (24.8%), Kicillof (24.4%) and Santilli (22.6%) followed.
The other two questions were related to the ideological spectrum. in the item “Top five of candidates ideologically perceived as right-wing” the deputy Espert led the list (49.3%) and was followed by de la Torre (47.4%), the libertarian deputy Victoria Villarruel (44.6%), Carolina Píparo (legislator who also joined the space of Milei ) with 42.7% and Ritondo with 42.1%.
Finally, the candidates perceived as closest to the left were Néstor Pitrola from the Left Front (71.5%), Axel Kicillof (52.5%), Victoria Tolosa Paz (39.7%), Martín Insaurralde (35.2%), %) and Graciela Camaño, deputy of the Renewing Front, with 15.7%.
The survey was carried out online between May 3 and 6 and 1,800 cases from all over the province were consulted. The margin of error was +/-2.4% and the confidence level was 95.5%.
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