“My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency,” Democratic nominee Kamala Harris told Fox News last month.
In terms of domestic policies, this could well be true. Experts have outlined a number of policy areas — trade-related and otherwise — in which Vice President Harris is poised to depart from her predecessor.
However, looking further afield, it is likely that a Harris victory in next week’s election will not cause much global upheaval. At least, from a financial point of view.
The same cannot be said for a possible victory of her rival Donald Trump, who is also vying for the keys to the White House.
“The main point I could make in the event of a Harris victory would be, symmetrically, the absence of the negative economic impact expected for Europe should Trump go through with his tariff plans,” said Aurélien Saussay, aide Research Professor at LSE’s Grantham Research Institute.
Duties
Reflecting on what a Harris victory could mean for Europe, Saussay highlighted Trump’s stance on tariffs, arguing that it is important to understand the alternative to a Democratic victory.
Trump has repeatedly said he would impose either a 10% or 20% flat tax on all foreign-made goods.
He has also proposed a targeted 60% import tariff on Chinese goods, along with a 100% tariff on all imported cars – regardless of their country of origin.
“Donald Trump’s proposed tariff increase, framed as a measure to correct trade imbalances and protect industries in the United States, has the potential to significantly reshape international trade relationships and supply chains, with notable consequences for the European Union,” said Saussay.
“Certain European sectors, notably Germany’s automotive industry, will be disproportionately affected. Although the 100% tariff on vehicles targets Chinese electric vehicles in particular, Germany would still be likely to take an economic hit.”
According to recent figures from Germany’s Federal Statistical Office, the country’s top export market in 2023 was the United States. France, the Netherlands and then China follow.
Andrew Kenningham, chief economist for Europe at Capital Economics, told Euronews that – unlike Trump – Harris “will not introduce horizontal tariffs, certainly not on strategic allies like Europe”.
Trade wars
While no horizontal tariffs on European allies are expected, Harris is likely to continue her tough trade policy with China.
Biden announced a series of tariffs this year targeting imports from the country.
Electric vehicles are subject to 100% duty. This factor is set at 50% for solar cells and 25% for EV batteries, critical minerals, steel and aluminium.
Since Europe is more dependent on China than the US, trade policies are likely to remain a point of friction.
Whoever wins the presidential race looks set to pressure the EU to curb trade with Beijing.
China is the EU’s largest trading partner in goods after the United States, with bilateral trade expected to reach €739 billion in 2023.
Emily Mansfield, regional director for Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told Euronews that green politics could also be a “flashpoint” for EU-US relations if Harris is elected.
“US IRA subsidies (which Harris would keep in place) are controversial in Europe as they risk attracting green investment away from the EU,” she explained.
“And new EU regulations, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), due to take effect in 2026, will raise costs for US businesses that export to the EU”.
CBAM imposes a carbon levy on certain imported products entering the bloc, with the aim of preventing companies from outsourcing production to countries with weaker climate regulation.
The EUDR prohibits the import of products into the EU if they are linked to deforestation practices.
Despite this potential for dissent, “a Harris win would broadly mean stability for Europe in terms of economic impact,” Mansfield concluded.
Tax policy
Many analysts expect that if Donald Trump wins the election next week, inflation could start to rise again.
This is due to proposed import tariffs, which will increase the price of foreign goods imported into the United States.
Proposed tax cuts and proposals to deport immigrant workers could also push costs up.
If inflation rises, this could then lead to an increase in interest rates if the Federal Reserve deems it necessary to cool the economy.
In turn, this would send bond yields higher – meaning the government borrows at a higher rate.
It is equally worth noting that high interest rates and bond yields are likely to increase the value of the dollar. This is because the prospect of increased returns usually increases demand from foreign investors for the currency.
Changes in US bond yields “would tend to raise European government bond yields, albeit to a lesser extent,” according to a Capital Economics note.
He added: “But other factors, such as the ECB’s monetary policy outlook and fiscal concerns in the eurozone, would continue to be key drivers of bond market movement.”
The note also predicted that the euro would not weaken drastically from a Trump victory.
Speaking of a possible Harris victory, Andrew Cunningham of Capital Economics told Euronews that the Democratic candidate “would probably not dramatically loosen fiscal policy.”
He added that “there would be no reason to expect higher US interest rates or a stronger dollar” in that case.
Although Trump is expected to increase spending, Carl J. Schramm, an economist and professor at Syracuse University, argued that Harris would also add significantly to the national debt if elected — which could send interest rates higher.
“Her approach will undoubtedly be driven by the Obama/Biden economic team, which has proven to be completely Keynesian in outlook and actions,” he argued.
“He will spend and expand the public budget without regard to the long-term debt and the impact on the dollar.”
According to a study released by the Commission for a Responsible Federal Budget last month, Trump would add $7.5 million to the U.S. national debt and Harris $3.5 million.
A divided Congress?
In addition to voting for president next week, US citizens will also be voting on a number of other positions – most notably who they want in Congress.
“Regardless of who wins the presidential election, the makeup of Congress will matter, as it will determine how aggressive each candidate can be with their fiscal agenda,” said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. .
If Democrats manage to win a strong majority in the Senate and House of Representatives, that will allow them to more easily pass legislation. If not, this could lead to a long-term political stalemate.
Regardless, a potential Harris victory is likely to herald little change for Europe, especially compared to a Trump victory.
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#Harris #victory #Europes #economy
It seems that you are dealing with a JavaScript snippet that is intended for managing ads on a webpage using various ad services such as Google AdSense, Phaistos Adman, OneSignal, Disqus, and others. However, the code appears to be incomplete and has placeholders where the actual script URLs should be inserted.
Here is a revised version of your code, cleaning it up while maintaining comments and structuring it appropriately. I’ve added placeholders (“ and “ symbols) where the actual scripts should be provided:
“`javascript
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“`
### Notes:
1. **Placeholders**: Replace placeholders such as “, “, and similar with actual values specific to your implementation.
2. **Functionality**: Ensure that each `asyncLoadScript()` or `asyncLoadModule()` function is defined elsewhere in your code to handle loading scripts dynamically.
3. **Variable `isMobile`**: Ensure that `isMobile` is defined in your context to check for mobile devices.
4. **Error Handling**: Consider adding error handling for network requests to make your application more robust.
This structure should provide a clearer understanding of how to maintain and expand on this script.
