Eight points China is observing for the invasion of Taiwan, according to the former Chief of Staff, Ground Self-Defense Force
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Severe sanctions continue as countries around the world violently oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to media reports, China, which has a deep diplomatic and military relationship with Russia, is upset. On the other hand, there are reports that the US military thinks that “China is carefully observing the Ukrainian war and preparing for the invasion of Taiwan.” If China is making such observations, what are they paying particular attention to? And how are you trying to make use of that lesson? We asked Kiyofumi Iwata, the former Chief of Staff, Ground Self-Defense Force. (Norifumi Yoshida: Journalist)
The wrong message of America sent to the world
──What do you think the Chinese government and the Chinese Army (People’s Liberation Army) are observing with particular emphasis on the Ukrainian War?
Kiyofumi Iwata (henceforth, title omitted)I think there are at least eight. The first is the reaction of the international community to Russia. In particular, it is military assistance to Ukraine that the Western camp is uniting. The United States and NATO member countries provided anti-tank missiles and portable surface-to-air missiles early on. China will reconsider what weapons the West will provide to Taiwan when it invades Taiwan. Since Taiwan is an island country, you should also check the transportation routes and ports of weapons such as the US military.
The second is economic sanctions on Russia in various countries. China will be seeing what kind of damage Russia will suffer and how long it will last. If economic sanctions are imposed by the world at the time of the invasion of Taiwan, I think we are considering whether or not the yuan alone will establish our own economy and the impact on people’s lives at that time.
Third is the leadership position and influence in the American world, and the future of the international order. For example, the US military is turning much of its force into responding to the Chinese military. Is there any change in that idea? I think China wants the US military to participate in the war between Russia and Ukraine. If the US military’s strength toward its own country is reduced, it will be easier to advance to Taiwan.
The fourth is a review of America’s nuclear strategy. US President Joe Biden and spokesman Saki said at a press conference in late February that “(nuclear war) should be avoided and we will not go deep.” Russian President Vladimir Putin, who saw the United States as able to deter nuclear weapons, hinted at the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This means that non-strategic nuclear weapons (small nuclear weapons) have become usable weapons. We will determine whether the United States will increase this usable small nuclear weapon in the future, and whether it will continue to use nuclear weapons for conventional forces.
