For many years, the dollar has been a way for citizens to measure how well the economy is doing, since the exchange rate usually affects their daily purchases, travel and business abroad enough. 22 years ago, the Market Representative Rate (TRM) was $1,873, since then it has increased $2,057 or 109.8%, making some products and services more expensive in the country.
Although this has been a relatively sustained growth since 2014, the strongest rebound was evident on March 13, 2020, just when the consequences of a pandemic caused by covid-19 were unleashed and the US currency touched $4,034 for the first time. time. Since then the dollar seems to find no limit some amid economic uncertainty and a turbulent electoral contest.
Between January 1, 2021 and today, the coin has grown 14.54% or $499.24. If the behavior in the last 12 months is analyzed, an increase of 8.01% or $291.67 is evident; while so far this year it has fallen 1.24% or $49.42 with peaks of $4,011. But, what is the ceiling of the greenback from now until the name of the new president of Colombia is known?
Although the price has been especially motivated by the global economic recovery, inflation, the intervention rate of the Federal Reserve, oil and the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the doubts and tensions due to the abrupt changes that can supply the Colombian economic system has touched the TRM. According to analysts from Corficolombiana, Casa de Bolsa, Scotiabank Colpatria and Skandia, the currency might reach a maximum of $4,100 on average.
In fact, yesterday, the dollar closed at $3,930.95 on average, which represents an increase of $111.88 compared to the Representative Market Rate (TRM), which stood at $3,819.07 for the day. About 8:50 a.m., the US currency broke above $3,900.
The opening value registered by the Set-FX platform was $3,895, while the maximum reached $3,959.67 and the minimum was $3,875. During the day, US$1,430 million were negotiated through 2,238 transactions.
According to Sergio Olarte, chief economist at Scotiabank Colpatria, yesterday’s rate movement was correlated with the rest of the world’s emerging currencies. This reaction is closely related to the possibility that the lockdowns in China will produce a recession in the future, causing the appetite due to the risk of investors falling.
“In Colombia we have idiosyncrasies that affect volatility a bit, such as the election season. We think it will continue like this with a ceiling of $4,100. For it to reach that level, not only would the uncertainty surrounding the electoral future have to remain, but the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine must continue abroad, in addition to inflation rising much more, but to remain high until a possible stagflation”, added the expert.
Likewise, for Catalina Tobón, manager of Investment Strategy at Skandia, she assured that, in Colombia, the effects of what is happening with commodities and Ukraine have been exacerbated in a pre-election context that, “although it is not the most important factor that explains the dynamics of local assets, if it generates a factor of distrust on the part of investors. In this sense, the exchange rate might continue to rise, but the ceiling will depend on how strong the oil price remains in this pre-election environment.”
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, among the basket of emerging currencies, the Colombian peso is the third most revalued so far this year with 3.73% growth. The local currency is preceded by the Brazilian real, with an increase of 14.33% in 2022, and the Peruvian sol, with 5.14%. Below are the Russian ruble (1.97%), South African rand (1.46%), Mexican peso (1.31%) and Chilean peso (0.83%).
