When Hurricane Beryl strengthened into a Category 5 storm last week, it broke records and left a trail of damage across the Caribbean. The first named hurricane of the season, Beryl is the first Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic, and also the first Category 4 hurricane to form in the Atlantic in the month of June — a harbinger of what experts say will be a much more intense hurricane season than usual. It was also unusual for where it formed, farther south and east than is typical for storms of this magnitude.
After devastating the Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, the storm made landfall in southeastern Texas, canceling more than 1,000 flights and cutting power to more than two million residents. At least 15 people died.
Hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with most storms developing between mid-August and mid-October. A wide swath of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. Atlantic coast are affected by storms. If you’re planning to travel during this hurricane season, here’s what you need to know.
How intense will the hurricane season be this year?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast an 85 percent chance of a heavier-than-normal season. An average season has regarding 14 named storms, but researchers at Colorado State University expect there will be 25 this year, including six Category 3 or higher hurricanes.
More hurricanes are likely due to above-average water temperatures in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. These warmer waters drive hurricanes and tend to be associated with lower pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, creating an environment conducive to storms, Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the department of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State University, wrote in an email.
It seems like the season is starting early. Why?
Warmer ocean temperatures are causing hurricane season to start earlier than usual. Typically, storms develop later in the season, once the ocean has warmed., But this year, parts of the Atlantic are already at 83.7 degrees Fahrenheit (28.9 degrees Celsius), 1 to 2 degrees above normal, according to Klotzbach. These kinds of temperatures are normally associated with the peak of hurricane season in September.
It’s especially unusual for a storm as intense as Beryl to form so early in the season — the storm reached Category 4 status a week earlier than any other storm since 2005. “Typically, June and July storms are relatively mild,” said Kerry Emanuel, professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “They don’t get to full strength, so it’s very rare for this to happen.”
What is significant regarding Beryl’s location?
Beryl set another record for the farthest east in June for a hurricane, beating a record set in 1933, Jennifer Collins, a professor at the University of South Florida’s School of Geosciences, wrote in an email. It also formed farther south than usual, affecting nations such as Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines that are typically outside the range of peak hurricane activity, Emanuel said.
When a storm forms in the tropics and farther east than usual — especially if it’s a severe hurricane like Beryl — it’s often a harbinger of a busy season, Klotzbach said. “It’s one thing to have weak systems in the deep tropics like we did in 2013, whereas it’s a completely different situation when we’re getting Category 5 hurricanes,” he added. “Unfortunately, Beryl is breaking records that were set in 1933 and 2005, two of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record.”
Historically, the so-called ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao), as well as Trinidad and Tobago, have been outside the hurricane zone. Has that changed?
It has been years since a major hurricane hit those islands.
Experts say that’s unlikely to change. “We haven’t really seen any noticeable changes in the storm track over that region,” Klotzbach wrote.
Should I change my travel plans for the summer?
According to Jackie Friedman, president of Nexion Travel Group, a network of travel advisors, many people choose to travel to hurricane-prone areas during the season, and most are not affected by the storms. “I don’t know any advisor who says, ‘I wouldn’t go to the Caribbean this summer,’” she said.
Klotzbach agreed that it is not particularly risky to travel to the Caribbean. “The chances of a hurricane hitting a particular location in a short period of time are very small,” he said.
Friedman recommends purchasing travel insurance and considering taking a cruise rather than traveling to a single destination. “The advantage is the flexibility to avoid being in the eye of the storm,” he said. “They can modify their itineraries to have a relatively pleasant vacation.”
Does travel insurance cover hurricanes?
Yes, but it’s important to purchase coverage early. Once a storm is named, newly purchased plans won’t cover claims related to it. Travel insurance is designed to protect once morest unforeseeable situations; once a storm is named, it’s considered a “foreseeable event.” So it’s best to purchase a plan before a storm develops.
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