TV5MONDE : Is the announcement of Macky Sall’s visit as President of the African Union to Russia and Ukraine a surprise?
Roland Marchal, researcher: This is a diplomatic initiative of the President of the African Union. This is on the one hand a surprise, because the African countries have shown in their vote at the UN a very great caution or distance vis-à-vis this conflict. But it is also a good thing that they seize it, because the African States and the AU are actors on the international scene.
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From that perspective, I think it’s viewed extremely favourably. You have to realize that Africa, along with other continents, is suffering a lot economically from what is happening. Russia and Ukraine are two global suppliers of wheat, corn, sunflower oil and fertilizers of various types, especially Russia. But the war makes most of these exports practically impossible. This leads to a very high price increase, of the order of 30 to 40% depending on the product, which further weakens the access of African populations, especially precarious, to food materials that are part of everyday consumption.
TV5MONDE: what can kyiv and Moscow expect from Africa?
Roland Marchal : For the Ukrainian President Volodimyr Zelensky, he is in his role, he plays the card of communication on a global scale. He spends a lot of time alerting and mobilizing in order to make the massive aid brought to his country more legitimate on the military or civilian level.
Zelensky hopes for a much stronger commitment from African countries and their regional institutions to influence UN bodies, such as the UN General Assembly, where Africa counts for a quarter of the votes, or even the Human Rights Council. man in Geneva to criticize and put pressure on Russia.
(Re)read: War in Ukraine: UN General Assembly suspends
Russia is in a symmetrical position. In recent years, it has embarked on a much more visible way than before in a disruptive African policy by trying to question a certain tradition of relations with Western countries.
Its action can be likened to that of an emerging economy which produces arms and seeks to find a place for itself on the African market. Beyond that, one can think of more political and geopolitical motives such as trying to defeat European immigration control policies which today are no longer located at the level of the Mediterranean coast but essentially at the level Sahelian countries.
TV5MONDE: What have the votes at the UN on the Russian invasion of Ukraine revealed regarding the position of African countries?
Roland Marchal : the Security Council having already spoken, the vote of March 2 at the General Assembly showed that a small majority of African countries – 28 – voted for Russia to stop in Ukraine.
(Re)read: Vote on the UN resolution on Ukraine: one abstention
Only one country voted in favor of Russia, Eritrea.
But what was most surprising was the large number of abstentions, formal or countries which decided to withdraw just at the time of the vote.
This is what struck and was renewed followingwards in another resolution on March 24 which demanded that the Russian offensive in Ukraine be halted.
African countries vote at the UN on the war in Ukraine
March 2: adoption of the resolution for “that Russia immediately stop using force once morest Ukraine”, 28 African countries for, 1 once morest, 16 abstentions and 8 absent
March 24: adoption of the resolution demanding that Russia stop its offensive in Ukraine, 28 African countries in favour, 1 once morest, 19 abstentions and 6 absent.
April 7: Russia suspended from its seat on the Human Rights Council 9 once morest, 22 abstentions
TV5MONDE: Why has Africa shown distance or reserve?
Roland Marchal : The African posture can be understood in different ways. There are 54 countries, some of which, like the Central African Republic and Mali, are very dependent on Russian support. There are others who don’t really care. There are also countries like South Africa which benefited within the framework of their national liberation process from significant Soviet support, such as the ruling ANC which was allied with the Soviet Union. Finally, there are countries like Gabon where Russia is seen as an element in a diplomatic game to convey messages of dissatisfaction to traditional interlocutors.
A beautiful African proverb says “when two elephants fight, the grass suffers”. For the continent, this means that to get involved very clearly for one side or another was to take the risk of angering at least one of the parties to the conflict, either the Westerners who are behind Ukraine or Russia. But African countries have other problems to deal with.
The second thing is the fact that African countries have closer relations with China than with Russia. China has shown an ambiguity that is extremely favorable to Russia – even if Russia would have liked a clearer commitment – and therefore African countries would not want to get angry with Beijing on this issue.
So there are a number of factors that explain why some countries have had more or less politically significant abstentions.
TV5MONDE: How is it that Ukraine is on a level playing field despite Russian influence in Africa?
Roland Marchal : This is not Ukraine. There is very clearly a block that has been created behind it and which weighs heavily on international positioning. The weight of Ukraine alone is relative. For example in terms of wheat production, the countries most dependent on Ukrainian wheat imports are Pakistan, Libya, Lebanon, Seychelles, Somalia and Eritrea. For all the other countries, this remains relatively marginal, as Egypt imports 20% Ukrainian wheat once morest nearly 45% Russian wheat.
Certainly Ukraine is not a political actor on the African continent. But it plays an important role in the sale of oil, while in wheat and maize Russia is clearly ahead and even more in fertilizers, which is essential for a country like Mali which has more than 50% of its income in foreign currency from the export of cotton.
(Re)read: War in Ukraine: Faced with rising wheat prices, African countries are trying to adapt
Faced with this need for fertilizer, of course there are alternatives, such as Morocco, which is very happy because it offers a certain type of useful fertilizer. But more generally, African countries will resort to instants that are cheap but not necessarily better in terms of productivity and above all more polluting and more dangerous for the health of farmers.
The question of fertilizers is a silent but cumbersome process. We talk more regarding food security, but taking care of cotton growing today has a strong impact on farmers’ incomes and ultimately on their lives.
TV5MONDE: What might the African Union ask of Russia and Ukraine during this trip?
Roland Marchal : Unlike very polarized Westerners, the AU might ask that imports of these agricultural or para-agricultural goods and inputs be considered to have a special status, with a minimum of international or UN or African control. Because if Russia continues to produce, it no longer has any shipping capacity because of what is happening in the Black Sea.
For Ukraine, the situation is much more difficult because the war is on its territory, so it must be very difficult for them in terms of reserves and production. Be that as it may, we might have considered measures to put on the international market the food resources that are necessary for the most vulnerable populations.
Today, the situation is only explained through the prism of a single cause: the war in Ukraine. But we must remember two things that also weigh on the African continent. On the one hand, the pandemic has considerably affected the resources of African states and has had effects on the food security of the most vulnerable populations.
On the other hand, in a non-homogeneous way across the continent, a severe drought hits a certain number of countries, which accentuates this fragility. In the Sahel, for example, because of what is happening in Ukraine, we have automatically added 10 million people who are dependent on international aid, that is to say in practice, not 10 million but 33 million people who need food aid to be able to eat enough.
TV5MONDE: Could Africa be a mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian war?
Roland Marchal : The question of mediation should be posed to the parties in conflict. I do not think that the African Union has the human and other capacities to embark on such a mission. What I hope through President Macky Sall’s approach is that it will make a voice of reason heard, that it will remind the parties in conflict and their allies that they all have international responsibilities and that Africa will be better off if the rest of the world is at peace.
Afterwards, intervening in a mediation is up to kyiv and Moscow to decide.
See as well :
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