“The parallel dollars had a stable price between February and April, among other things because of the positive signal generated by the agreement with the IMF. But as of May, this trend was reversed due to the poor fiscal results and the accumulation of reserves. In May and June, cash with liquidation increased its price at an average monthly rate of 6.7%, more than double that of blue, 3.1%”, began the Director of Analytics, Claudio Caprarulo.
“Today it is difficult to project better prospects for the coming months. For example, energy imports during July will continue to condition the trade balance, to which is added greater pressure from tourism abroad due to the winter holidays and from the pesos that previously went to CER debt and now seek refuge in the dollar. In turn, in the second half of the year, the supply of dollars is lower as a result of the seasonality in the liquidation of agriculture, “he said.
“The free dollar was recently aligning itself with the upward rearrangement that financial dollars had previously experienced, which were awakened by a greater demand for coverage from a more complicated external and internal context. Among the domestic factors, political tensions and economic uncertainty stand out, especially in the face of a second semester of “more pesos, less dollars”, as well as the recent noises in the CER securities, essential to manage the challenging “roll-over” and avoid having to resort to monetary financing”, explained the economist Gustavo Ber in dialogue with Ámbito.
“Beyond the fact that the seasonal greater demand for pesos can open a window of greater calm, as the financial dollars have been anticipating in the last rounds, the upward rearrangement of the free dollars should be quickly resumed later in the event that external factors are extended. and internal ones that incline investors towards defensive positions, even more so in the face of the high nominal value of the economy and that have been falling behind for some time as they slipped below inflation,” he added.
“The rise in blue this week is related first to the course of the country’s economy and the negative expectations regarding the economic direction. The country risk rose 18% in the month responding to the fear of the markets due to the uncertainty, CCL dollar remains high despite losing $7 from highs and the government had to bid before the strong end of the month to loosen maturities and test market confidence. The rise of the blue, in that sense, is logical because it cannot be 10% below the financiers, it encourages the carry and the easy handrail. It might be said that sooner or later the MEP and the Blue are going to converge, it happens that the Blue is a more atomized market and with less volume”, said the economist Federico Glustein.
“In turn, despite being more marginal, the blue cannot be too far below the crypto dollars either, that is, the blue today is the cheapest free dollar and being towards an approximation of demand for bonus collection, it was affirmed at a value according to what the market requires“, he added.
Regarding the Christmas bonus and tourism, Glustein pointed out that “an upward trajectory of the blue currency is seen, but not with the strength that the sector expects, since there is a 5% difference between solidarity and blue, for which, it may be record demand for the former, alleviating the parallel channel.On the other hand, with respect to tourism, we must be cautious since, due to government measures to promote local tourism, there is less going abroad, so The demand for blue may not be as high as in other years and, therefore, push upwards, but to a lesser extent.”
What alternatives does the government have?
For Gustavo Ber, the rate hike carried out by the Central Bank “was a measure in the right direction, even more so as it accelerated the pace on the way to offering positive real yields”, however, he pointed out that “to the extent that the external context and do not offer a more constructive outlook might be insufficient to avoid greater dollarization among investors, since they continue to favor defensive positions”.
“In favor it can play if the government manages to recompose the debt market in pesos and remove pressure on the dollar. For that it will need to show a consistent monetary and fiscal program, it is not enough to only offer a higher interest rate,” Claudio Caprarulo concluded.
