The results of the parliamentary elections in Lebanon surprised Hezbollah’s allies, whether parties such as the Free Patriotic Movement, or some independents who have been in the parliament for 20 years or more.
After Hezbollah and its allies, most notably the “Free Patriotic Movement” and the “Amal” movement, were at the fore in the previous parliamentary scene by winning 71 seats, their share in this year’s elections declined to about 60 seats.
The Free Patriotic Movement, led by Gebran Bassil (son-in-law of President Michel Aoun), and an ally of Hezbollah, also won one seat, compared to 22 deputies, after the resignation of 7 deputies from its previous bloc, which was formed after the 2018 elections, out of 29 deputies.
As for the other ally of the party, the Marada Movement, led by Suleiman Franjieh, it won only two seats, after its share was 5 seats in the previous parliament.
objective retreat
This retreat raised questions to the party’s allies about its causes, and about the relationship of the demonstrations that began strongly three years ago to it.
The writer and political analyst Qassem Kassir considered that “this decline is the result of objective circumstances due to the developments that occurred in the past three years, and the emergence of new forces in the political arena, whether from the forces of change or new political groups.”
During his speech to “Arabi 21”, Kassir expressed his opinion that “this retreat is objective and does not constitute a coup process in the full sense, but this is happening, as some forces can enhance their role and position and others are retreating.”
He attributed the reason for this decline to “the media campaign that was launched against the Free Patriotic Movement, and also due to the emergence of new forces such as civil society groups and the forces of change that succeeded in taking some seats in some constituencies.”
A message from the Lebanese people
On the other hand, political analyst Youssef Diab believes that what he called “the loss of Hezbollah and its allies, the parliamentary majority, is a message that the Lebanese people sent to this team in order to punish it for the policies it adopted that led the country to collapse.”
Diab explained, during his interview with “Arabi 21”, that “this loss came as a translation of the October 17, 2019 revolution, which wanted to change the entire political system in the country.”
He added, “We know that Saad Hariri left the political equation and suspended his participation in political work temporarily, while all the parties in the system remained in power, including Hezbollah and its allies, and therefore the Lebanese people responded to this system through the ballot boxes and told them that it was not acceptable.” her continuation in power.
He predicted that “Hezbollah will not accept the results of the elections and that it will not allow the new majority to rule, because it refuses to leave the political equation because it considers its exit as targeting it. Therefore, campaigns of incitement by Hezbollah against the forces that won the elections have begun, and the next stage will be difficult.”
Multiple breakdowns
During the last five years, Lebanon suffered from an economic crisis that burdened the Lebanese citizen and affected his daily needs of basic materials, whether food, medicine, or services such as electricity and water.
This economic crisis, as well as the political crises and the difficulty of forming a government capable of solving these crises led to the emergence of new forces that came from the angry street, where angry demonstrations against the political class began on October 17, 2019.
These demonstrations demanded a change in the political system in the country, which was torn apart by a civil war from 1975 to 1995. They also demanded a fight against the corruption of the authority and the ruling political class, according to the demonstrators’ opinion.
In light of the success of the forces of change, which are considered representatives of civil society forces and leaders who participated in the demonstrations, a question arises about their impact on the composition of this council, which witnessed a decline in the number of seats for some parties and currents, as well as the emergence of a greater number of independents.
Read also: A reading of the results of Lebanon’s elections..Who is the winner and who is the loser?
The writer and journalist Hanna Saleh pointed out that “there are several factors and reasons that contributed to this decline of some forces and the emergence of other forces, including the economic collapse, demonstrations, and others.”
Saleh continued in an interview with “Arabi 21”: “These elections took place after the earthquake of collapse that struck Lebanon and moved it from affluence to poverty, and it turned out that behind the earthquake was a plundering and immoral political class that took over even the deposits of the Lebanese.”
He also pointed out that “it came after the October 17 revolution, which exposed the political class and revealed the collapse of its political morals, and this revolution raised the slogan of restoring the hijacked state with weapons, punishing violators of dignity, protecting the loaf and the pill.”
Likewise, according to Saleh, “the elections came after the bombing of the port of Beirut and the subsequent repercussions, the most important of which is that the political class met to protect fugitives from justice and re-elected to Parliament those who were charged by the public prosecutor with the felony of possible murder in the port bombing that destroyed downtown Beirut.”
He considered that “all these events created a spotlight for the Lebanese and introduced a new awareness of the situation the country is going through.”
He pointed out that “Hezbollah has been leading the country since 2011 and has not formed a government except according to its will, and after the year 2016 it controls the decision-making joints, and the party wanted from these elections to raise its majority from 73 deputies to 86 deputies in order to legislate its arms and place a subordinate to it in the Presidency of the Republic and complete it.” uprooting Lebanon”.
He explained that “these reasons made the battle directed against Hezbollah and its domination, because it protected corruption and smuggling and turned Lebanon into a platform for smuggling poisons and aggression against the Arabs.”
He stressed that “this discontent pervaded all environments, so sectarian forces resorted to a rhetoric of incitement to awaken their group, but this discourse did not do its work, so the percentage of voters and supporters of all traditional groups, especially Hezbollah and the Amal movement, declined to 20-30 percent of the voters.”
He continued: “These people decided to protest against their team and did not move to support another team or to support the forces of change, so the surprise was great for these forces, but for fairness, the forces of change alone in Lebanon fought the battle against Hezbollah in their home in the south, and Asaad Hardan, the head of the National Party, was a man. The Syrian regime and Hassan Nasrallah, who is known for his dark history, has been a deputy for 32 years.
expected result
For his part, Joe Macaron, a researcher in American and Middle Eastern affairs, considered that “the decline in the seats of Hezbollah’s allies was expected as a result of the assessment of Michel Aoun’s presidency at the end of his term, and as a result of partial progress by the forces of change who entered the parliament equation.”
On the reasons for the increase in the number of independents who won the elections, Macaron told “Arabi 21”, “The victory of the independents was the result of the Future Movement’s suspension of its political activity and the voters’ search for an alternative to traditional parties, but in general, the House of Representatives maintained the same balance of power with minor modifications imposed by the events of the four recent years.”
On the reason for the effect of street anger on Hezbollah’s allies more than others, he said that “because Hezbollah’s allies were in power, and the progress of the independents came as an inevitable result of voters’ restlessness with traditional forces, and the demonstrations brought new faces to the parliament, but not to the extent of changing the balance of power.”
caretaker government
In light of some forces losing some of their seats in the parliament and the emergence of new forces, is it possible to form a government, or will the situation remain as it was in the last three years, meaning the formation of a government by Caesarean birth and political consensus without taking into account the economic and political conditions of the country?
Hanna Saleh stressed that “the formation of the government in recent years was a caesarean section that takes 11-13 months, and five years of disruption in Lebanon without governments, as parliaments were under the control of Hezbollah.”
And he expressed his appreciation that “a government will not be formed soon, and the reason is that Michel Aoun will require a share for his son-in-law and his team before consultations, as usual. four months or more.
He considered that “the biggest challenge is not the formation of the government, but the election of a president of the republic.”
On the other hand, Qassem Kassir said about the possibility of the emergence of new forces affecting the speed of government formation, “We cannot know whether the new forces will facilitate or complicate the formation of the government. The matter is related to the negotiations and consultations that will take place in the coming days. This situation was resolved and a new Speaker of Parliament was elected.”
He expressed his appreciation that “Lebanon is now facing a transitional phase, and therefore it is necessary to wait,” adding: “Yes, these forces are raising great slogans today, but when they come to the ground, they have to look for settlements, so we have to wait for some time, and I cannot be certain that the government will be formed. fast or not.”