Belarus on the Brink: Lukashenko’s Seventh term adn the Looming Shadow of War
Alexander Lukashenko, Europe’s longest-serving authoritarian leader, is poised to secure a seventh consecutive term as President of Belarus on January 26, 2025. As the election approaches, it’s become increasingly clear that the outcome is a foregone conclusion. With the absence of genuine opposition and Lukashenko’s long history of orchestrating rigged elections, his victory seems all but guaranteed.
He has further tightened his grip on power by banning overseas voting, removing the minimum turnout requirement, and granting himself lifelong immunity and a permanent seat in parliament. These actions solidify his control and effectively silence any meaningful dissent.
While the 2025 election is unlikely to usher in any ample change, its implications are profound and far-reaching. Belarus,under Lukashenko’s rule,has become embroiled in the escalating geopolitical tensions between NATO-backed Western Europe and Russia. Moreover,the nation’s deteriorating human rights record and its active participation in Russia’s war in Ukraine have resulted in severe economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation,inflicting hardship on the Belarusian people.
as a scholar specializing in Eastern Europe, I believe that Lukashenko’s continued reign, fueled by another self-proclaimed victory, will have dire consequences for regional stability, global politics, and the future of Belarus itself.
A Crucial Support system for the Russian War Machine
Belarus has become a pivotal strategic asset for Russia, serving as a staging ground for military operations, including the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Beyond providing a base of operations, Belarus continues to be a crucial supplier of military equipment to Russia. This vital support includes advanced technologies such as optical devices, thermal imaging systems for vehicles, artillery ammunition, and sophisticated radio-electronic equipment and software.
These contributions have considerably bolstered Russia’s military capabilities during the conflict,facilitating the production and upgrade of crucial systems like tanks,missiles,and air defense platforms.
However,Belarus’s active role in supporting the Russian war effort has drawn international condemnation. In August 2024, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Belarusian entities identified as aiding Russia’s military endeavors.
Despite these sanctions, Belarus continues to be intertwined with Russia’s economic and military ambitions, a relationship that has significant implications for the global security landscape.
Belarus: Another Era of Lukashenko, Deeper Ties with Russia, and Crackdown on Dissent
Alexander Lukashenko’s recent re-election for another term as Belarus’s president signals a continuation of the country’s trajectory, marked by deepening reliance on Russia, strained relations with the West, and a tightening grip on internal freedoms.
The victory, despite international accusations of electoral fraud, solidifies Lukashenko’s role as a staunch ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin. While sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have impacted Belarus, access to cheap energy and loans from Moscow has cushioned the blow. This dependence, according to some analysts, has only strengthened the already tight bond between the two nations.
This alignment with Russia is particularly concerning given Belarus’s strategic location. Sharing borders with NATO members Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, and Ukraine’s aspiring NATO membership, Belarus finds itself at the forefront of growing tensions between the West and Russia.
Military Drills and Growing Nuclear Ambitions
Military cooperation between Belarus and Russia has escalated in recent months, culminating in the proclamation of ”Zapad-2025,” a major joint exercise planned for later this year. This exercise will reportedly include both conventional and nuclear components, raising concerns among neighboring countries.
Belarus already hosts a significant number of Russian nuclear weapons, and plans are underway to deploy Oreshnik, a hypersonic ballistic missile, within Belarussian territory. Putin affirmed this intention,stating that Oreshnik deployment coudl occur in the “second half of 2025.” while the missiles will remain under Russian control, Minsk will have the ability to select their targets.
this deepening integration of Belarus into Russia’s nuclear posture further complicates the security landscape in the region. Moreover, the scheduled military exercises near NATO borders raise the specter of potential escalation and conflict.
China Enters the equation
Lukashenko has also strengthened ties with non-Western powers, notably China. In July 2024, Belarus hosted Chinese military personnel for joint exercises focusing on operations near NATO borders. This alignment with authoritarian anti-Western powers exemplifies Lukashenko’s strategy of diversifying Belarus’s alliances while simultaneously increasing pressure on the West.
Domestic Crackdown and Language Suppression
For Belarusian citizens, another term under Lukashenko means continued erosion of their freedoms.His government has acted to silence dissent and suppress civil society. Peaceful assembly and freedom of expression have been criminalized, and even the use of the Belarusian language has been targeted.
Lukashenko’s regime has aggressively promoted russian as the dominant language in Belarus,viewing the use of Belarusian as a potential threat to its control.This linguistic shift further solidifies the country’s integration with Russia and weakens Belarusian cultural identity.
The human cost of Lukashenko’s policies is evident in the widespread detention, imprisonment, and harassment of those who dare to challenge his authority. The future for Belarusian citizens remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: under Lukashenko’s continued rule, democratic freedoms and cultural autonomy will be further suppressed.
Belarus: Embracing Oppression, embracing Dependence
Belarus has become a stark warning about the erosion of freedom in modern times. A country once teetering on the edge, it has now plunged into a state of near-total authoritarianism. In 2020,Freedom House’s Global Freedom Score for Belarus stood at 19/100,a reflection of its already existing authoritarian tendencies. By 2024, this score had plummeted to a dismal 8/100, solidifying its place as one of the most oppressive nations globally.
The story of this descent is marked by brutality and repression. The aftermath of the 2020 presidential election saw a nation gripped by mass protests, met with violence and an unprecedented crackdown. An estimated 30,000 people were arrested, many of whom claimed to have endured torture and mistreatment while in custody. This wave of repression shattered any remaining vestiges of democratic values.
Freedom House’s civil liberties score for Belarus, a barometer of essential rights, mirrored this disturbing trend. In 2020, it stood at 14/60. By 2024, this figure had fallen dramatically to a mere 6/60, revealing a stark reality where freedoms of assembly, expression, and association have been systematically dismantled.
The consequences of this descent into authoritarianism are profound. Belarus has become a pariah state,ostracized by Western democracies and increasingly reliant on Russia for its political and economic survival. This dependence creates a dangerous dynamic, trapping Belarus further under the shadow of its powerful neighbor.
The people of Belarus face a daunting future. The continuation of Lukashenko’s rule promises more suppression, further dependence on Russia, and a continued erosion of their basic freedoms. Nations around the world must stand in solidarity with the people of Belarus, demanding an end to the current regime’s human rights abuses and supporting their long-denied aspirations for democracy and self-determination.
Despite its isolation, belarus remains a critical player in Russia’s geopolitical chess game, a pawn in its wider confrontation with NATO and the West. This underscores the international stakes involved, urging the global community to closely monitor the situation and respond forcefully to any further human rights violations.
