2024-05-06 04:06:13
(Capitol Notes – Graphic illustration/MetroCreative)
We are now nine days out from the May 14 primary, with early voting continuing this week through Saturday. And as I write this, I can’t tell you how the Republican primary for governor will go.
As you all well know, I do not make predictions. All I can do is tell you what the political weather is like at the moment. If the election were held at this very moment, it certainly seems based on polling and money spent that Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is the favorite, with former state legislator Moore Capito and Huntington businessman Chris Miller vying for the role. forcing out spoilage.
The latest WV MetroNews West Virginia poll seems to confirm this, though I have several quibbles with the poll. It has Morrisey, again, in the low-30s. Specifically, it has Morrisey at 32%, with Miller at 25% and Capito at 24%. Secretary of State Mac Warner is a distant fourth with 10%, with 3% preferring someone else and 6% undecided.
My big problem with this poll, conducted by noted pollster Rex Repass at Research America, is the length of time it was conducted. The poll included 407 registered Republicans and independents requesting GOP ballots, with the poll taking place between April 24 and May 1. I’m not sure how you can get an accurate poll over an eight day period. A lot can happen in politics in a period of eight days.
However, I think the basic snapshot is correct. Morrisey is the man to beat, although it still amazes me that his support has remained so static. When you average all the polls, independent and internal polls from pro-Morrisey groups, Morrisey averages about 33% support. This means that while Morrisey has a decent loyal base of supporters, he hasn’t really gained any new support.
In a race that is basically a four-person race (and in fact a three-person race), I certainly never expected to see Morrisey clearly at 50% support. But I would have expected Morrisey to at least rise into the high-30s, especially given the millions of dollars spent by and on behalf of Morrisey.
The Morrisey campaign has spent more than $3 million on the election so far, according to its most recent campaign finance report. That doesn’t include the more than $6 million spent on behalf of Morrisey and against Morrisey’s opponents since the start of the year by Black Bear PAC/Club for Growth and the $646,598 Americans for Prosperity has spent. It was spent almost $10 million.
Those expenses may not bring any new voters to Morrisey, but they could potentially be downvotes for Capito and Miller, especially with all the negative TV and radio ads and emails. Morrisey doesn’t have to be faster than the bear, he just has to be faster than the next slowest person.
Then again, an internal poll from the Coalition for West Virginia’s Future, a pro-Capito group, has Capito leading with 33%, Morrisey with 28%, Warner with 16% and Miller with 15%. I’m not sure I can buy Miller that low given the money he’s spending and the number of broadcast ads out there, even in the Washington, DC market, which is very expensive.
I hope we will see a new poll from Black Bear PAC. While a pro-Morrisey group, it has conducted at least three polls since last year that allow for a contrast-and-compare. Then again, if Morrisey doesn’t dominate in his poll, I’d be surprised if they release such a poll.
***
I don’t know who is advising Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, the only Democratic candidate for governor, but he is getting bad advice.
Last week, Williams launched a petition drive to pressure the West Virginia Legislature and Governor Jim Justice to call the special session (probably now in June) to put a resolution to a constitutional to place amendment on the November ballot re “Reproductive Rights.”
I understand. Several states are conducting ballot initiatives regarding reproductive freedom and access to abortion. The pro-life/anti-abortion crowd scored a victory with the overturning of Rowe v. Wade, which returned the issue of abortion to the states. However, they did not expect that although the subject of abortion makes very uncomfortable, at the end of the day when they have the choice, the public in many states tends to have at least some choice.
But I want to point out a few things. First, voters have already approved a constitutional amendment that adds language to the state Constitution that “Nothing in this Constitution guarantees or protects a right to abortion or requires the funding of abortion.” That amendment passed cleanly in 2018 and with a low turnout during a mid-term election, but it passed regardless.
Second, Republicans continued to pick up seats in the Legislature after that 2022 near total ban on abortion. Again, they did not lose seats. They got seats. Expect a high voter turnout in November with former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. With Republicans growing their voter registration (40.4% as of April) and a certain percentage of conservative independent voters and even conservative Democrats still, I just don’t see reproductive rights being the rallying cry in West Virginia that Williams (or his advisers) don’t think that it.
If I were to advise Williams, I would say keep your head down and raise money. You are the Democratic nominee because you have no competitor. Only after the primary will I focus on myself and hit as many people as I can for money. Because if Morrisey is the primary winner, Williams is going to need every penny.
Steven Allen Adams can be reached at sadams@newsandsentinel.com
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