West pouring weapons into ‘Donbass showdown’… A ‘dilemma’ of black trade, an excuse for escalation

Biden “Support Stronger Weapons” Speed ​​Battle… Russian “unexpected results” warning
There is also concern about the possibility of being misused after the war by being used by terrorist organizations such as firearms and drones.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announces a statement calling for an end to the war in Ukraine at the UN headquarters on the 19th (local time). Behind Secretary-General Guterres, a ‘tied gun’, a sculpture symbolizing anti-war and non-violence, can be seen with a muzzle tied. United Nations Headquarters | EPA Yonhap News

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensifies the Donbass offensive, the West, including the United States and Europe, are making every effort to quickly provide Ukraine with high-tech weapons with stronger firepower. As the scale and scope of arms aid to Ukraine expanded, so did the West’s concerns. The current challenge is to deliver weapons as efficiently as possible without over-stimulating Russia and causing escalation. In addition, the possibility that some of the weapons poured into Ukraine will flow into the black market or terrorist organizations is a long-term risk.

US President Joe Biden held a videoconference with leaders of seven major countries (G7), key figures from the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and Eastern European leaders on the 19th (local time) to provide military aid to Ukraine and Russia Discussed the issue of additional sanctions against White House press secretary Jen Saki said the leaders had promised security, economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and discussed efforts to impose harsh economic costs on Russia.

During a visit to New Hampshire, President Biden answered a reporter’s question if he would send more artillery to Ukraine, saying “yes”. CNN reported that the Biden administration would announce additional military aid within a few days, and the amount would be similar to the $800 million (about 990 billion won) announced on the 13th. The United States initially provided Ukraine with personal firearms, portable surface-to-air missiles, anti-tank missiles, and grenade launchers after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the 13th, it announced that it would provide weapons with stronger firepower than the previously provided weapons, such as 155mm howitzers, Mi-17 transport helicopters made in the former Soviet Union, M113 armored vehicles, and switchblades for attack drones. This is because, unlike the beginning of the war, the Battle of Donbas is highly likely to be an all-out war using tanks, cannons, and drones.

“We will do everything we can to meet Ukraine’s demand for additional arms assistance,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said at a briefing. He said Ukraine had recently received fighters and parts to strengthen its air force. The US did not provide the fighter, he explained, and helped ship some parts.

According to Der Spiegel and others, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a press conference after the videoconference that “the war has entered a new phase” and that “Germany will cooperate with Western countries to supply Ukraine with weapons.” “I will support NATO allies to supply weapons systems to Ukraine,” he said.

Western countries, which have begun to provide Ukraine with high-tech weapons with strong firepower, are not without concern. The biggest concern is the possibility that the war will escalate beyond Ukrainian territory. Russia has recently warned that the US and the West are providing Ukraine with highly sensitive weapons, which could lead to “unpredictable results”. The supply of weapons to Ukraine is being made in Eastern European countries adjacent to Ukraine, such as Poland, and NATO’s intervention may be inevitable if Russia crosses the ‘red line’ by launching an attack to stop this. Conversely, it cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainian military, which has been provided with powerful weapons, may attempt a retaliatory attack on Russian territory with fighters, artillery, or missiles. This is also an escalation scenario that the US and Europe do not want.

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Whether the weapons poured into Ukraine will be put to good use is a long-term risk factor. Since the US has few on-site personnel to monitor the distribution and management of weapons it has provided to Ukraine, it must rely on reports from Ukrainian authorities. It is difficult for the US to ascertain how many weapons were exhausted at the battlefield. Ukraine is likely to exaggerate its needs in order to get basically more weapons. Moreover, many of the weapons provided by the United States can be easily concealed or moved, such as personal firearms, portable missiles, and drones. “It’s reliable in the short term, but not at all when the war goes into the fog,” an American source told CNN.

CNN reported that there is no law prohibiting replay cases in which some of the weapons the US has donated or sold to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are traded on the black market or fall into the hands of terrorist groups or enemy countries such as al Qaeda and Iran. pointed out

The US government is aware of this risk, but for now is focusing on the short-term goal of providing Ukraine with as many arms as possible to counter Russia. Jordan Cohen, an expert in arms control at the CATO Institute, a think tank in the United States, said: “This could be a problem for the next 10 years.” It could be,” he said.

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