2023-10-01 01:13:00
Introduction: West China Securities: In August, domestic and foreign sales both increased year-on-month, and cumulative exports of power batteries increased significantly.
New energy vehicles: Domestic penetration rate remained unchanged month-on-month in August, and European sales increased year-on-year
In August, domestic new energy vehicle production reached 843,000 units, up 22.0% and 4.7% respectively from the previous month; sales volume was 846,000 units, up 27.0% and 8.5% from the previous month respectively; the penetration rate reached 32.8%, up respectively from the previous month. 4.9pct, 0.1pct. In August, the eight European countries achieved a total of 199,000 new energy vehicle sales, a year-on-year increase of 63.9% and a month-on-month increase of 17.5%; the penetration rate reached 29.7%, a year-on-year increase of 6.8pct, and a month-on-month increase of 7.9pct. In August, sales of new energy passenger vehicles (EV+PHEV) in the United States were 135,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.9% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0%. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in that month was 10.1%, a year-on-year increase of 3.1pct and a month-on-month increase of 0.4pct.
Power battery: Iron-lithium accounts for nearly 70% of the installed capacity, and total export volume continues to grow rapidly
In August, the domestic installed power battery capacity was 34.9GWh, a year-on-month increase of 25.7% and 8.2% respectively. From January to August, the domestic installed capacity of power batteries was 219.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%; of which the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 149.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 56.0%, accounting for 68.3% of the cumulative total installed capacity; ranking top 3. The power battery installed capacity of the top 5 and top 10 power battery companies accounted for 81.3%, 89.4%, and 97.5% of the total installed capacity respectively. The industry is highly concentrated. In terms of exports, the cumulative exports of batteries by my country’s power battery companies from January to August reached 78.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 135.9%.
Investment Advice:
We believe that 1) in the short term, under the traditional peak season in the second half of the year, all links are expected to enter a stage of increasing output. 2) In the medium and long term, the logic of high-quality supply is the main theme. With the continuous launch of new models, new energy vehicles are expected to enter the accelerated penetration stage; overseas electrification is determined, and the development of global new energy vehicles has achieved resonance. Domestic new energy vehicles have entered a stage of rapid penetration, and the development of the industrial chain has been continuously improved and optimized. The industry has experienced rapid increase in demand, substantial expansion of supply, and then optimization of the industry structure under the self-balancing of supply and demand, cultivating a number of related suppliers with advantages in cost and performance. business, and its global competitive advantage continues to be consolidated. In the future, we are optimistic regarding the following investment logic: ①[Pattern]Focus on supply-side optimization, the bottoming out of industry profits and the clearance of backward production capacity brought regarding by the head’s cost advantage. We are optimistic regarding the bottoming out of profitability or the possibility of an inflection point. ②[Globalization]Overseas markets provide incremental growth, and we are optimistic regarding the globalization strategy of lithium batteries. Manufacturers with international supply capabilities and the first to deploy overseas production capacity are expected to benefit from the development of global electrification. ③[New technology]Technological innovation is one of the core factors promoting the rapid development of new energy vehicles and is expected to bring regarding improvements in performance, cost, safety and other aspects. New technology directions include composite current collectors, fast charging, lithium iron manganese phosphate, sodium-ion batteries and other new technology applications.
Beneficiary targets: Ningde Times, Tianci Materials, Rujing Technology, Putilai, Kedali, Mannste, Xinhongye, Baoming Technology, Dongwei Technology, Tiannai Technology, Dingsheng New Materials, Enjie Shares , Xingyuan Materials, Jiaocheng Ultrasonic, Shangtai Technology, Wanshun New Materials, Shengli Precision, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Dangsheng Technology, Rongbai Technology, Zhenhua New Materials, Zhongwei Co., Ltd., Nord Co., Ltd., Defang Nano, Penghui Energy, Huayou Cobalt, Hongfa Shares, etc.
risk warning
Changes in new energy vehicle industry policies; demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected; global new energy vehicle development is less than expected; supply and demand pattern worsens; upstream raw material prices fluctuate dramatically; technological routes change, new technology development falls short of expectations; risks of overseas policy changes, etc.
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