2023-08-05 03:45:12
Demonstrators wave a Nigerien flag during a demonstration in Niamey on August 3, 2023. – / AFP
“We are ready”, said a West African minister in a firm voice. His country, one of the heavyweights in the region, is preparing to “use of force” once morest the junta at the head of Niger since July 26, he assures. “Our line hasn’t changed, it’s firmness. It’s one coup too many”, he explains. As the expiration of the ultimatum – set for Sunday August 6, for the Nigerien military to return power – approached, the two camps – that of the “putschists”, which supports the Nigerien junta and that of the “legalists”, which calls for the reinstatement of President Mohamed Bazoum at the head of the State – camped on their position and everyone was considering war. If it takes place, this confrontation between “blocks” of countries would be unprecedented in West Africa and particularly risky.
Friday, in Abuja, the Nigerian capital of the “legalists”, the chiefs of staff of the countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) concluded three days of meeting by announcing that the outlines of a “possible military intervention” once morest the Nigerian junta were “defined”. “Including the resources needed, but also how and when we will deploy the force”said the Commissioner for Political Affairs and Security, Abdel-Fatau Musah.
A well-connected military source within the West African staffs affirms that nearly 50,000 soldiers might be mobilized for this operation, a figure considered as « plausible » by several experts but which is only“planning” bound to be adjusted. It corresponds exactly to the number of men that the Nigerien army might field in 2025, according to projections made by the government. Several countries such as Nigeria, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire have already confirmed their participation in this force. Chad – which does not belong to ECOWAS, but whose president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, attempted mediation at the start of the coup – announced that it would not participate.
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After imposing heavy economic and financial sanctions, is ECOWAS showing the muscles to make the putschists give in, or is it ready to go into battle? “The military route is only the last option on the table,” as Mr. Musah pointed out.
But the closer the ultimatum approached, the more the path of dialogue seemed to turn into an impasse: the mediation sent to Niamey on Wednesday by Bola Tinubu, the Nigerian head of state who currently chairs ECOWAS, was not received by the General Abdourahamane Tiani, who chairs the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP), was unable to meet Mohamed Bazoum, the deposed president, still sequestered.
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