Published on 04.12.2022 at 20:18 by APA
Contractions are expected in world trade in major cereals for the period 2022-2023, according to forecasts by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). economic information, Financial Afrik, Robert Gouantoueu Guéi, FAO Representative in Senegal and Sub-Regional Coordinator for West Africa, sheds light on the supply of cereals over the period 2022-2023.
According to Mr. Gouantoueu, it is envisaged “a 2.4% decline” in cereal trade compared to the level of 2021-2022 which should stand at 467 million tonnes. Lower corn harvests and exports in Argentina, Ukraine and the United States of America are behind this decline.
Food prices on regional markets
“International rice trade is now forecast to moderate slightly (decline) in 2023 (Jan-Dec) to 53.0 million tonnes, down 1.4% from the estimated level for 2022,” he said.
Rice is a staple food in West Africa. A fall in world trade in this cereal might threaten food security. With the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, prices have skyrocketed and some varieties are almost rare on the market.
He mentioned the forecast for world wheat trade, which shows a decline of 1.9% in 2022-2023 (June-July) compared to 2021-2022. Production in Ukraine, the world’s 4th largest exporter, is also expected to fall by 40% leading to a 50% drop in exports due to the conflict with Russia.
“Globally, there is a downward trend in food prices at the international level for the sixth consecutive month; however, grain prices of other food items such as wheat and rice remain high in West Africa and the Sahel,” he observed.
He insisted that in the Sahel and West Africa, the functioning of regional markets is generally normal except in areas very affected by civil insecurity. Food availability is declining in most countries, but is gradually improving with the release of the first harvests.
However, the upward trend in food prices continues in all countries, particularly for local products and wheat. Significant price increases (more than 50% compared to the average) are observed in Burkina Faso, Mali, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria.
International Market Forecast
Regarding fertilizer prices, they are on the rise due to supply difficulties linked to the disruption of supply chains due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the negative effect of the increase in the cost of local transport following that hydrocarbons in all the countries of the region.
This might have a negative impact on production in 2022-2023 and also cause a food shortage on the markets. World cereal production (2,768 million tonnes) in 2022-2023 drops 5.9 million tonnes and drops to a level 1.7% lower than in 2021.
Mr. Gouantoueu said that some agricultural products are dependent on specific types of fertilizers. For example, in Ghana, according to the PFJ (Planting for Food and Jobs) program, cereal crops are highly dependent on Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) fertilizer, while cocoa mainly uses NPK 0-23-19.
If an adequate supply of these categories of fertilizers is not ensured, the immediate consequence would be a larger production deficit for the products concerned, since the projections made on the drop in production had not taken into account the unavailability of these fertilizers, he continued.
He noted that the use of cereals should experience a drop of 8.7 million tonnes or 0.5% compared to 2021-2022 and world cereal stocks at the end of the 2023 campaigns should still contract by 1.6% from their opening level.
