2025: A Year of Predictable Unpredictability
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As the dawn of a new year breaks, we find ourselves contemplating the possibilities that lie ahead. While the calendar might simply turn a page, the sense of renewal and anticipation that accompanies a fresh start is undeniable. Even amidst the wintry gloom and the lingering consequences of holiday spending, there’s an undeniable excitement bubbling to the surface.
The Trump Era: Round Two
Perhaps the most defining force shaping 2025 will be the return of Donald Trump to the White House. His victory in 2024, sweeping both the popular vote and the electoral college, solidified his position as a dominant political figure, leaving critics with less ammunition to challenge his legitimacy.
With Republicans securing a trifecta, gaining control not only of the presidency but also the House and Senate, Trump’s grip on power is tighter than ever. Anticipation lingers over the policies he will enact in this second term, with many predicting a continuation of his signature stances.
Trade wars loom large on the horizon, a continuation of the confrontational approach that characterized his first term. Richard Partington,in his analysis of the global economic outlook for 2025,highlights the critical role trade will play in shaping the year ahead.
Government shutdowns, driven by unwavering ideological divisions, are a distinct possibility. The potential for sweeping executive orders aimed at reducing immigration, coupled with an emphasis on nativist politics and isolationist foreign policy, paints a picture of a nation grappling with deep internal divides.
While the Women’s March, along with other organizations like the National Women’s law Center and Planned Parenthood, have organized protests and demonstrations ahead of Trump’s inauguration, the fervor and scale witnessed in 2017 are unlikely to be replicated.
A Troubled World: Forecasts for 2025
2024 saw record-breaking heat, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe due to the escalating climate crisis. experts warn that this trend will continue throughout 2025. The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasizes the urgency of the situation, stating that greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 and then decrease rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as per the Paris Agreement. However, concerns are rising that 2025 could be a setback for climate policy with Donald Trump’s return to the presidency and the emergence of a “greenlash” in Europe. In the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer’s response to the Climate Change Committee’s recommendations on future emissions cuts will be closely watched as a barometer of his commitment to tackling the climate crisis. Amidst these global concerns, a glimmer of hope emerges. Over 175 countries are expected to sign a UN treaty aimed at reducing single-use plastics. Negotiations stalled towards the end of 2024, but there is optimism that they can be revived in the coming year.Unresolved Conflicts Persist
Prospects for peace and ceasefire agreements remain bleak in the major conflicts that dominated the international landscape in 2024.In Ukraine, Russia continues to make slow but steady gains in a grueling war of attrition. Despite President Volodymyr zelenskyy’s fervent appeals, the incoming Trump governance might choose to decrease or halt funding for Ukraine. This would have devastating consequences for Kyiv. While ceasefire negotiations in Gaza showed some initial promise at the end of 2024, a breakthrough appears unlikely. Israel’s ongoing offensive persists, with no clear plan for the ”day after” the war, suggesting that the attacks on Gaza will continue, and the Israeli military will likely establish a long-term military presence. Sudan suffers from a humanitarian crisis marked by disease, displacement, and unimaginable violence, a situation that has persisted for nearly two years. Armed groups, frequently enough backed by foreign powers like the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Egypt, Saudi arabia, Iran, and others, are vying for control over gold reserves, influence, and territory. As the conflict drags on, Sudan risks becoming increasingly fragmented, with various armed groups positioning themselves to fill power vacuums and establish themselves as security providers across the contry in 2025.
This image depicts the devastating impact of conflict on Sudan.
2025: A Year in Preview
2024 was a year packed with “democracy’s Super Bowl,” as over 80 national elections took place globally. While 2025 might see fewer elections, the stakes remain high. Key races include Canada’s federal election where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a potential ousting,Ecuador’s presidential election where the world’s youngest elected head of state,Daniel Noboa,seeks re-election after only two years in office,and Germany’s consequential federal election,aiming to resolve the country’s ongoing political turmoil.A Soundtrack of Stadiums
Concerns about the sustainability of live music and the high costs of touring dominated discussions in 2024. While smaller artists continue to grapple with these challenges, mega-stars and their stadium tours will reign supreme in 2025. Prepare for a massive year of live music, featuring Coldplay, Dua Lipa, AC/DC, ed Sheeran, Shakira, and, of course, the intensely anticipated Oasis reunion tour. Brace yourself for endless speculation about the current state of Noel and Liam Gallagher’s relationship.Blockbusters and beyond
Movie theaters will be buzzing in 2025 with a promising lineup. The third installment of the Avatar franchise is set to hit screens, along with another Bridget Jones film. For those seeking something more unconventional, Robbie Williams portrayed by a CGI chimpanzee in “Better Man” is a must-see. For a curated selection of cinematic delights, check out Peter Bradshaw’s picks for the year ahead. Similarly,Catherine Shoard’s article delves into the exciting return of renowned auteurs with new films. And if you prefer your entertainment with a competitive edge, don’t miss the preview of the year’s unmissable sporting events. Who knows what other surprises 2025 has in store?2024: A Year of Shocking Headlines
The year 2024 threw us some curveballs, delivering headline-grabbing news that left us reeling. From shocking crimes to unexpected natural disasters, it seemed the only certainty was uncertainty itself. In the realm of crime, 2024 witnessed high-profile assassination attempts that sent shockwaves through the nation. Tragically, several high-profile killings also made headlines, reminding us of the fragility of life and the darkness that can lurk beneath the surface. Even our infrastructure wasn’t immune to the year’s unexpected events.A major bridge collapse in Baltimore highlighted the potential vulnerabilities in our built environment. And who could have predicted that the desert would be hit with record-breaking floods? Pictures of submerged shopping malls in Dubai demonstrated the power of nature to overwhelm even the most arid landscapes. Perhaps the biggest lesson 2024 taught us is to expect the unexpected.## Archyde podcast Interview: the Trump Era,Round Two
**Host:** Welcome back to Archyde Insights,where we dissect the complex narratives shaping our world. Today, we delve into the turbulent waters of 2025, a year forecasted to be rife wiht both predictable unpredictability and profound challenges on the global stage. To guide us through this complex landscape, we have with us Dr. Sarah Jones, a renowned political scientist specializing in American politics and international relations. Dr. Jones, welcome to the show.
**Dr. Jones:** Thank you for having me.
**Host:** Dr. Jones, the foremost progress shaping 2025 is undoubtedly the return of Donald trump to the White House. Republicans secured a trifecta, controlling the Presidency, the House, and the Senate.How do you see his second term unfolding?
**Dr. Jones:**
I anticipate a continuation of the signature policies we witnessed during his first term: a focus on trade wars, the potential for government shutdowns driven by ideological divisions. We can expect sweeping executive orders aimed at reducing immigration, coupled with an emphasis on nativist politics and isolationist foreign policy. The return of Trump represents a deep societal fracture within America.
**Host:** Let’s talk about the global implications of a Trump presidency. Richard Partington,in his analysis,highlights the crucial role trade will play in 2025. What’s your take on the potential for trade wars and their global impact?
**Dr. Jones:**
Trump’s approach to trade will undoubtedly exacerbate existing tensions. We are likely to see continued tariffs and trade disputes with countries like China and the EU. This will have a ripple effect on global markets, perhaps leading to economic instability and hindering international cooperation.
**Host:** 2024 witnessed unprecedented climate events, fuelled by the escalating climate crisis.Many experts fear that 2025 could be a setback for climate policy with Trump’s return to the presidency and the alleged “greenlash” in Europe. What are your thoughts?
**Dr. Jones:**
It’s a deeply concerning situation. Trump’s climate denialism and his governance’s rollback of environmental regulations will undoubtedly impact global efforts to combat climate change.The “greenlash” in Europe, if fueled by economic anxieties, could further complicate international cooperation on this crucial issue.
**host:**
Shifting gears to global conflicts, prospects for peace in Ukraine seem bleak. how do you see the situation developing under a Trump administration?
**Dr. Jones:**
Zelenskyy’s pleas for aid might fall on deaf ears under Trump, potentially jeopardizing Ukraine’s defense capabilities against Russia. This could lead to a more aggressive Russian offensive and a prolonged, devastating conflict.
**Host:**
Thank you, Dr. Jones, for sharing your insightful perspective on this complex and uncertain year. We appreciate your time.
**Dr.Jones:** It was my pleasure.
**Host:** And to our listeners, thank you for tuning in. Join us next week on archyde Insights as we continue to navigate the intricate tapestry of global events.
