Weather: What will December be like – What does research director Kostas Lagouvardos predict?

According to the long-term forecasts cited by the meteorologist, Costas Lagouvardos, “the coming December is expected to be warmer than normal in Southeast Europe (including Greece) according to the long-term forecasts issued in November”.

Mr. Lagouvardos in collaboration with Giorgos Fragioulides, make a first long-term forecast for the average temperature of December 2024.

“Specifically, the most likely scenarios are deviations of the order of 0℃ – 1℃ (26%) and 1℃ – 2℃ (23%), while the probability of average temperature deviations of more than 2℃ is 23%. Finally, there is a 28% chance that we will have a below normal average temperature.

Lagouvardou’s entire post

From the announcement we prepared with my colleague Georgios Fragkoulidis

Warmer than normal is expected to be next December in SE Europe (including Greece) according to long-term forecasts issued in November. As shown in the graph below, according to 72% of the available scenarios the average December temperature will be higher than normal for the season (reference period: 1993-2016).

In particular, the most likely scenarios are deviations of the order of 0-1 °C (26%) and 1-2 °C (23%), while the probability of average temperature deviations of more than 2 °C is 23%. Finally, there is a 28% chance that we will have a below normal average temperature.

This forecast is based on a total of 350 possible scenarios from the following forecast centers: ECMWF (Europe), UKMO (United Kingdom), Meteo-France (France), JMA (Japan), NCEP (USA), DWD (Germany) and CMCC ( Italy), as provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Commission.

It is emphasized that long-term forecasts are characterized by great uncertainty and aim to estimate the trend in the monthly and seasonal evolution of average weather conditions. Temperature variations on a daily and local basis due to the influence of all kinds of weather systems may differ significantly from the average monthly variation over a wider area.

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