After the first heat wave which saw the thermometer exceed 30 degrees two weeks ago, we knew that summer might still bring us a few heat episodes. And while the temperatures have been quite pleasant since then and should remain so once more this week, several weather models predict a sharp rise in temperatures around July 15. “There is indeed a real risk of a big heat stroke in Belgium, but also a good part of Europeconfides Pascal Mormal, meteorologist at the IRM. For the time being, it is much too early to know for sure what awaits us, but I would put the risk of experiencing a heat wave at 40%.“
As a reminder, it takes three consecutive days at more than 30 degrees in a period of five days during which at least 25 degrees were reached to experience a heat wave in the scientific sense of the term. “The American model – which is still the most alarmist – has been indicating for a few days that a heat stroke is brewing for the period from July 15 to 20explains Pascal Mormal. It is this model which had very well anticipated the heat stroke of two weeks ago, and the heat wave of June 2019. It announces temperatures potentially between 35 and 40 degrees in Belgium, and even 43 or 44 degrees in the south of France ! The European model is more temperate but also speaks of temperatures that might reach or exceed 30 degrees. I would say the truth should be between the two, with 40% chance of experiencing a heat wave, and 60% of having temperatures between 25 and 30 degrees.“
We will therefore have to refine these forecasts, but the risk seems very real. “Having a heat wave with 30 or 40 degrees is obviously quite differentagrees the meteorologist. We are on forecasts at almost two weeks, so everything has yet to be confirmed. We will see more clearly this weekend.“
Until then, the week should be pleasant, even if one or the other drop of rain might come to spoil the party. “We are in the average for the season, without excess. It will already heat up a bit this weekend and early next week.“
So let’s take advantage of this mildness before experiencing, perhaps, a very hot end of the month. “There are signals that show this heat stroke from July 15, but also for the end of the month“, warns the specialist.