2023-08-05 02:00:33
European leaders are going to have to continue working with Erdoğan, whether they like it or not, because Turkey is too important to ignore.
Last year, around the same time, hardly anyone gave credit to the political future of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Persistent hyperinflation was destroying Turkey’s economy and the country was hosting millions of Syrian refugees who had no realistic hope of returning home. Then came the devastating earthquake last February, which claimed tens of thousands of lives and completely overwhelmed local institutions, while exposing endemic corruption.
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Furthermore, since the July 2016 failed coup, Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian. There’s still no hope of solving the Kurdish question nor to end the war against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Moreover, anti-terrorist laws and a conciliatory judicial system gave Erdoğan powerful tools to repress any form of opposition.
For years, these inner developments have wreaked havoc on Turkey’s relations with NATO and the West. The government’s decision in 2017 to buy a Russian S-400 air defense system heralded the end of US-Turkish weapons cooperation. At that time, its rapprochement with the European Union was almost completely at a standstill.
Reinforced grip
Many Westerners anticipated that Erdoğan might finally be defeated in the recent national elections. But Erdoğan won the presidential elections decisively au second tour.
Fundamental changes in the pan-European order since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 have strengthened Erdoğan’s grip.
Equally important, fundamental changes in the pan-European order since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 have strengthened Erdoğan’s grip.
Following the purchase of the S-400 system, Turkey’s close relationship with Russia had created doubt as to his loyalty as a member of NATO. In response, the United States canceled a promised delivery of six F-35 fighter jets, while following through on a similar delivery to Greece, Turkey’s neighbor and longtime adversary. THE Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership applications then put things on hold, with Turkey blocking Sweden’s membership on the grounds that it granted asylum to PKK members.
However, over the past year or so, Erdoğan had already quietly revived dialogue with the West and served as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia in the (recently suspended) agreement to allow Ukrainian grain shipments across the Black Sea. It can be assumed that this agreement between the warring parties was not concluded without the approval of the United States.
Then, during the recent NATO summit in Vilnius, Erdoğan finally withdrew his veto against Sweden’s membership, apparently in exchange for a US promise to sell F-16 fighter jets to its government. Even more specifically, he joined the rest of the alliance in expressing its support for Ukraine’s future membership.
No, Erdogan has not changed…
By these acts, Erdoğan has fully joined the group of Western partners, much to the chagrin of the Kremlin. Since then, Turkey has even sought to calm its very tense relations with Greece. Rather than exacerbating tensions with its neighbor (and NATO member) in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, it is now pursuing rapprochement and cooperation.
Politicians in European capitals and in Brussels must never forget who they are dealing with.
The Ukrainian crisis and the recent elections seem to have led Erdoğan and his advisers to reassess Turkey’s geopolitical position. In terms of security, they clearly see no serious alternative to NATO and relations with America. Likewise, in the face of continuing economic crises and inflation, closer ties with the EU have much to offer. That said, it would be a mistake to think that Erdoğan or his regime have changed. Politicians in European capitals and in Brussels must never forget who they are dealing with.
But neither can they ignore Turkey’s geographical location and geopolitical importance. Among other things, Turkey controls Russia’s access to the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean (via the Bosphorus). She is a major player in the Near and Middle East, in Central Asia, in the Caucasus and in the Balkans and it exerts a significant influence on large Turkish minorities in major EU member states. The EU remains heavily dependent on Turkey, which welcomes millions of refugees who would otherwise seek to enter the block.
Stupid attempt
For all these reasons, it is difficult to overestimate the strategic importance of Turkey for Europe. But as Erdoğan showed when he blocked Sweden’s NATO membership, he does not rule out engaging in extortion and other tough tactics to further his goals. Nor can he be counted on to always act wisely. His attempt to link Sweden’s NATO candidacy to Turkey’s EU membership, for example, was downright stupid, as it reminded Europeans that Turkey really had no place in the of the EU.
Full EU membership is out of the question (…) Erdoğan’s behavior has shown how different the EU and Turkey are.
Nevertheless, European leaders will have to collaborate with Erdoğan, whether they like it or not, because Turkey is too important to ignore. Cooperation is best limited to issues of mutual interest, such as security and migration. Of course, economic relations could also be improved. Turkey’s access to the Common Market, the Customs Union and the EU’s visa-free travel zone could be negotiated as part of a broader reassessment of relations. But full EU membership is out of the question. While the war in Ukraine has clearly shown that Turkey and Europe cannot do without each other, Erdoğan’s behavior showed how different the EU and Turkey are.
In view of the size and importance of Turkey, these differences must be taken into account, as they cannot simply be ignored. Either way, the overhaul of relations between the EU and Turkey will play an important role in the realignment of the European order after the war of Russian aggression.
Joschka Fischer
Former German Foreign Minister and Vice-Chancellor
: Project Syndicate
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