“We are clearly witnessing the emergence of a dirty war”: the point after two weeks of war in Ukraine

Two weeks following the start of the war in Ukraine, what remains of Vladimir Putin’s strategy? How is his army adapting to the Ukrainian resistance? What to expect from the talks ? We take stock.

They overestimated the potential of their own army

15 days. It’s been 15 days since Vladimir Putin’s Russian army invaded Ukrainian territory. 15 days of a war that the Russian President wanted to “flash”, but which is starting to fizzle out. From cities and villages of Ukraine fell, of course. The Chernobyl nuclear sites and Zaporizhia are now under Russian control, too. But faced with the offensive of the Russian battalions, the Ukrainian forces have demonstrated, more than once, their resistance.

A resistance which, according to the researcher in international relations (ULB) Julien Pomarède, is one of the two causes of the current weakening of the Russian strike force. ” There was a double lack of discernment in Vladimir Putin and his staff “ he explains. “Not only did they underestimate the Ukrainian resistance, but they also overestimated the potential of their own army. An army today faced with logistical problems: lack of fuel, rations for soldiers and trucks necessary for the artillery transport.”

Direct consequence of this slowdown: the Russian camp is now forced to review its ambitions and its military strategy. For Nicolas Gosset, researcher at the Royal Institute of Defence, ” If the initial plan was a very large occupation of Ukraine, we can clearly see that we are no longer in this scenario, he analyzes. Today the attacks are focused on conquering the Eastern Crescent, which stretches from northern Kiev, runs along the North-Eastern border and descends towards the Donbass and the Sea of ​​Azov in the southeast. “