Thinking about placing a bet on who could emerge victorious in the upcoming presidential election, the next governor of Washington state, or the potential repeal of I-2117, known as the Climate Commitment Act?
However, the Washington State Gambling Commission strongly advises against it, stating that such activities are illegal within the state’s boundaries — despite claims from a newly launched betting platform that insists it operates legally and is regulated on a nationwide level.
Kalshi, which has recently garnered attention as the first-ever prediction site regulated by the Federal Trade Commission, celebrated a significant legal victory last week, permitting it to facilitate online bets.
Impressively, by Thursday, Kalshi had accumulated a staggering $130 million in trades focused solely on the presidential election. A bet of $100 on Donald Trump claiming victory would yield a payout of $169, while a successful wager on Kamala Harris would provide $238, positioning Trump as the frontrunner and Harris as the riskier choice.
In Kalshi’s assessment of the governor’s race in Washington state, the odds stand at 13-1 in favor of the Republican underdog Dave Reichert triumphing over incumbent Democrat Bob Ferguson. In the closely contested battle for the 3rd Congressional District, Kalshi posts Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez as a slight underdog, with the odds set at 6-5 against Republican Joe Kent.
When it comes to the Climate Commitment Act (I-2117), Kalshi’s projections lean towards its permanence, with betting odds favoring its retention, as wagers on its repeal would pay out at 5-1.
Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, has been actively promoting the site on various business shows, emphasizing its legal standing in all states following a favorable decision from a recent appeals court ruling.
The court ruling strictly allows Kalshi to operate within the United States, only accepting U.S. dollars from American participants. “We don’t allow anyone outside the country to participate,” Mansour clarified during an interview with Fox Business.
Describing itself as a U.S.-based regulated betting exchange or a “prediction market,” Kalshi parallels the trading mechanisms of Wall Street’s commodity market. According to Mansour, participants engage in buying or selling contracts based on their confidence in specific outcomes, thereby offering a compelling alternative to conventional polling data.
“The beauty of these markets is that people have skin in the game, with money on the line, making this forecast more authentic,” remarks Mansour, who believes that when monetary stakes are involved, predictions become significantly more accurate than polls, where respondents may not always be truthful.
While proponents argue that Kalshi’s data could provide timely insights into public sentiment, some critics express concerns over the potential risks posed to the integrity of future elections.
Kalshi’s trading platform welcomes both everyday users and substantial financial players, with some wagers soaring to an astonishing $100 million on election outcomes. The platform allows maximum bets of up to $7 million without the necessity for financial vetting by the firm.
However, the platform faces significant scrutiny due to a persistent issue.
“They are not legal,” asserted Troy Kirby, the Communications Director of the Washington State Gambling Commission, highlighting the state’s firm stance on the matter.
Even as Kalshi purportedly enjoys oversight from the FTC, Washington regards its operations as a form of gambling that remains unlawful across state lines.
“The illegal component is that there’s a consideration, money involved,” Kirby explained. “If you decide to take that chance, it’s at your own risk.”
Kirby further illuminated that the state is more inclined to impose penalties on Washington residents engaging in such bets rather than on Kalshi, which functions outside the jurisdiction. Even experiencing a loss would not exempt residents from repercussions, as any intent to profit is a violation in itself.
Under Washington law, the only sanctioned online betting occurs at tribal casinos or via casino apps located in close proximity to those establishments.
“No other online gambling, in any form that offers a consideration, is allowed,” Kirby stated, making the legal parameters crystal clear. He elucidated that Kalshi’s platform, despite behaving similarly to a commodity market, still embodies elements of betting wherein buyers and sellers exchange contracts predicting future events.
Mansour emphasized to Fox Business that Kalshi should not be conflated with sports betting platforms such as DraftKings. “Our markets are stable, regulated, and transparent. Every trade is reported, and we know who’s trading. It’s not anonymous, not crypto-based, and all trades are reported to the federal government,” he concluded.
Notably, Kalshi does not engage in any form of sports betting.
Matt Markovich covers politics and public affairs for KIRO Newsradio and MyNorthwest.
**Interview with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Tarek. There’s a lot of buzz around Kalshi, especially after your recent court ruling victory. Can you explain how your platform operates in light of the legal restrictions on gambling in states like Washington?
**Mansour:** Thank you for having me. Kalshi operates as a regulated prediction market, which sets us apart from traditional gambling. Our platform allows users to buy and sell contracts based on their confidence in specific outcomes, ranging from political elections to economic events. The crucial distinction is that we’re designed to comply with U.S. laws, and following our recent court ruling, we can operate legally in all states, accepting bets only in U.S. dollars from American participants.
**Editor:** Exciting progress indeed! However, we’ve seen the Washington State Gambling Commission express concerns over the legality of your platform. Can you address that issue?
**Mansour:** Absolutely. We respect the Washington State Gambling Commission’s position, but we believe that our platform fits within the legal framework of prediction markets as established by the federal court ruling. It’s important to note that while some may view our activities as gambling, we see ourselves as a valuable tool for understanding public sentiment and predicting outcomes in a more dynamic way.
**Editor:** Kalshi has made quite the splash, especially regarding political betting. Can you share how these predictions compare to traditional polling methods?
**Mansour:** The core of our model is that participants have real financial stakes—money on the line, so to speak. This creates a more engaged and informed betting environment compared to traditional polls, where people’s responses can be influenced by social factors. We believe that when financial consequences are at stake, predictions tend to be more accurate, providing better reflections of public sentiment.
**Editor:** You mentioned that Kalshi has recorded an astonishing $130 million in trades focusing on the presidential election. How is your platform enticing such high levels of engagement?
**Mansour:** It’s all about accessibility and the appeal of informed speculation. We welcome both everyday users and high-stakes investors, and the ability to engage with political outcomes through a financial lens draws various demographics. Also, our maximum bets allowed without financial vetting is up to $7 million, which naturally attracts significant players looking to make bold predictions.
**Editor:** You captured the intrigue surrounding political predictions nicely. What are your thoughts on the potential risks critics see regarding the integrity of elections due to platforms like Kalshi?
**Mansour:** I appreciate that concern. However, we believe that our market can enhance transparency rather than undermine it. By acknowledging the bets and stakes that exist, we may help create a clearer picture of what the electorate is thinking. Our objective is to foster an engaging and informed discussion, not to interfere with democratic processes.
**Editor:** Interesting perspective, Tarek. Lastly, as you continue to grow, how do you see Kalshi evolving in the future?
**Mansour:** We aim to become the most trusted platform for prediction markets in the U.S. Our goal is to expand into various sectors—like climate change, sports, and economics—while ensuring compliance with regulations. We’re confident that our model can offer invaluable insights into societal trends and public sentiment as we evolve.
**Editor:** Thank you for your insights, Tarek. We appreciate you taking the time to elucidate Kalshi’s role in the landscape of predictions and betting.
**Mansour:** Thank you for having me! It was great to discuss this exciting new frontier.
