According to some estimates, US GDP growth is set to slow during the three months from April to June. This increases fears of the US economy entering a recession after contracting in the first quarter of the year, as Nomura warned that the world’s advanced economies, including America, may enter a recession within the next 12 months.
According to Archyde.com, there is a 40% chance of global economies entering a recession over the next two years, with a 25% chance next year.
As the CEO of Morgan Stanley said earlier last month that there is a 50% chance of the US economy entering a recession.
Historically, the US economy is classified as a recession when the economy contracts in two consecutive quarters, but the failure to achieve this does not eliminate the possibility of a technical recession.
In 2001, GDP fell in the first quarter but rebounded in the second. To return and retreat again in the fall. Although no two consecutive quarters of decline were recorded, the economy was classified in recession at the time, due to high unemployment and low industrial production.
In 2016, industrial activity experienced a marked decline, which some called a “mini-recession,” even though GDP never declined.
With regard to the Corona pandemic, the recession at that time only lasted for two months, from March to April 2020, despite the economy contracting in both the first and second quarters of the year.