War is not poker… War is a parade – Newspaper Kommersant No. 126 (7327) of 07/15/2022

The parade in honor of the national holiday of France – Bastille Day – traditionally took place on July 14 on the Champs Elysees. This year it was opened by representatives of Eastern European countries, and along with them were the French units deployed in this region following February 24th. The correspondent of “Kommersant” in France watched the first parade of “special operation time” Alexey Tarkhanov.

As a grateful spectator of the July 14 parades, I missed few of them during my years of work in France. I was always amused by the operetta uniform, lancers with colorful badges and dragoons with horse tails, the feeling of a home holiday, a city day. But I have never seen such a storming of the Bastille. On Thursday, an alarming parade of military Europe was held in Paris, which was emphasized both in the comments of the hosts, and in the composition of the columns, and in an interview with President Emmanuel Macron.

The hosts of the parade walked in the usual order: military schools, motorized riflemen, artillerymen, sailors, pilots, military doctors, policemen and gendarmes, firefighters and civil defense.

Everything is the same as ten years ago. The sky is clear, the wind is warm. And everything would be fine, but something is not good.

The parade was entrusted to open the military of those NATO countries that believe that their peace is under threat. These are Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia. They were followed by representatives of the French formations, hastily transferred at the end of February to Romania and Estonia.

President Macron met at the Arc de Triomphe with the French chief of staff, General Thierry Burcart, to drive down the Fields in an open car to the Place de la Concorde. It happens every year, the president is in full view, it is not customary to hide from the people. Thanks to this, the movements of the president and the general were visible in the details. Emmanuel Macron, in an unbuttoned civilian jacket, and Thierry Burcart, in his buttoned-up uniform, kept discussing something heatedly, as if they hadn’t said enough the day before.

On Wednesday, Mr Macron gave a speech to the military leadership, demanding full readiness for “the prospect of a possible clash of high tensions” and promising unprecedented investment in the defense budget: by 2025 they will reach € 50 billion. To show his closeness to the military, he even drove for several days back during a parade rehearsal in the cockpit of a French Patrol fighter.

On the Champs-Elysees, the audience was shown new items – French light tanks and armored personnel carriers, as well as an American strike drone. And during the aviation part, the audience said goodbye to the “retiring” Mirage aircraft and Alouette helicopters, which are being replaced by more modern machines.

France is increasingly turning towards a war economy in order, according to the concept of the General Staff, long ago expressed by the French General Thierry Burcard, “to win the war before it starts.”

Judging by the comments of the media and French officials, the blame for the current armed conflict on the eastern flank of Europe is clearly placed on Russia. Not without reason, when CAESAR artillery mounts passed by the podium as part of the 1st Artillery Regiment, the audience was reminded that France had already sent 18 howitzers to the Ukrainian military, almost a quarter of what it owns.

More than once, of course, on Thursday it was repeated that France is not at war with Russia. But there are areas of military science and international politics in which this war remains one of the theoretical options, for which it is impossible not to prepare. According to my observations, it is still impossible for the French to explain how a “special military operation” differs from a “war” proper. At the same time, public opinion in France is increasingly worried that the announced “special military operation” may spread further. In a recent survey conducted by the company Odoxa, 78% of the French voted for the proposal to increase military spending. Here is an example of how you can “win before the war.”

The impression was confirmed by the press conference of President Macron, which he gave in the garden of the Elysee Palace following the parade.

With regard to the international situation, the position of the head of state is as follows: “We see a war of high intensity. France has the ability to help Ukraine, defend itself and help its allies. The military budget will not be reduced. We have the strongest army in Europe, but we need to have an even stronger army.”

In part, this was a rebuke from the president to those who oppose too much support for Ukraine, believing that European sanctions will ricochet back once morest France. This opinion is shared by the main political opponents of Emmanuel Macron – Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Many listen to them. Not out of love for Russia, which is still considered responsible for the situation, but out of fear for the standard of living in the country.

President Macron promised his compatriots maximum assistance, but warned honestly: “As a result of the war, energy prices have risen. The change of recent days has been Russia’s decision to start shutting off gas… We must prepare for a scenario where we have to do without Russian gas completely.” The President acknowledged that the end of summer and autumn are expected to be very difficult: “We don’t know how long this war will last, we must prepare for the fact that it will last.” Emmanuel Macron defined his main desire, which rhymes with the general’s “to win before the start of the war”, as follows: “We want to stop this war without entering into it.” Looks like the parade this year has kept pace with him.

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