Faced with the pressure, will TotalEnergies’ position be tenable? The multinational has decided, for the moment, to maintain its activities in Russia, when the British BP and the Dutch Shell or the Norwegian Equinor announced that they would cease their investments by withdrawing from projects with Rosneft or Gazprom. “But the consequences of a withdrawal from TotalEnergies would be disproportionate to those experienced by BP or Shell, which were no longer very active in Russia anyway! exclaims an expert in the sector.
A decision that goes once morest the will of France, and its allies, wanting to “cause the collapse of the Russian economy”, in the words of the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, this Tuesday morning on Franceinfo, which pointed out “a problem of principle in working with any political or economic personality close to Russian power. After this speech, the CEO of TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanné, affirmed on social networks that the company “will no longer bring capital to new projects in Russia”, and that it “approves the extent and the force of the sanctions (…) whatever the consequences” on its assets.
Significant investments
The oil giant is notably a 19.4% shareholder in the Russian firm Novatek, headed by Gennady Timchenko, a close associate of President Vladimir Putin. Russia accounts for 16.6% of its annual production of natural gas and LNG (liquefied natural gas) and 175 million barrels of oil equivalent out of a total of 1051 million barrels. Despite everything, these activities represent only 3 to 5% of its income. “It’s up to Total to assess the balance of risks and the impact of their presence on the spot”, we slip at Bercy.
“Beyond the financial consequences that a withdrawal might represent, the issue is above all strategic. The moment TotalEnergies leaves, Chinese players will come to take their place! emphasizes the expert. Not to mention that Patrick Pouyanné has made heavy investments locally to develop the natural gas branch. They probably can’t drop everything all at once. The group is, among other things, a 20% shareholder in the titanic Yamal LNG project in Arctic Siberia, capable of producing 16.5 million tonnes of LNG per year.