War in Ukraine. “Probable” cut of Russian gas in France: who will have to ration?

The French government called on Sunday to “quickly get into battle order” to deal with the possibility of a total cut in Russian gas supplies, “the most likely option” according to Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire. .

“Let’s prepare for the total cut off of Russian gas, this is the most likely option today. That supposes that we accelerate our energy independence”, pleaded during the Economic Meetings of Aix-en-Provence the number 2 of the French government, which wants to take advantage of the summer to “put itself in battle order” before winter. .

In terms of supply, “we can have tensions over gas this winter”, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne had warned on Saturday during a meeting with the press. To avoid shortages, the government has asked for the national gas storage capacities to be filled to “nearly 100%” by the beginning of the fall.

Prioritize households and certain industries

On electricity, normally, according to EDF’s projections, we should have higher production as and when “the twelve reactors (out of 56) currently shut down for corrosion will restart, said Ms. Borne. But if electricity were to run out, the government is preparing for the winter a series of measures intended to prioritize households and certain industries. “Obviously we preserve households and (…) we do not cut factories or public transport”, detailed Ms. Borne on Saturday. “We must now put ourselves in battle order on organization, load shedding, sobriety, reduction of consumption… it is now that we must make the decisions”, echoed the Minister of the Economy. .

In the country, with the second largest nuclear fleet in the world in power, gas represents nearly 20% of its energy mix, and in 2020 accounted for less than 7% in its electricity production, according to government figures. Before the war in Ukraine, France relied on Russia for around 17% of its gas.

Situation plus « favorable »

Some industrial sites might be asked to “slow down their energy consumption, or even stop their energy consumption for a certain time”, explained Mr. Le Maire, while specifying that “it is totally impossible” for certain sites, so as not to “break the industrial tool”.

France, which claims to be in a more “favourable” situation than its neighbours, must in particular acquire a new floating LNG terminal next year to ensure its supply. “We must distribute the effort between administrations, individuals and companies”, explained Bruno Le Maire.

The government has also launched three working groups to improve energy sobriety in the administration, businesses and establishments open to the public. The objective is to establish a roadmap to reduce energy consumption by 10% within two years compared to 2019. “It is a matter of several months, but (this) must also bring us to make a number of investment decisions and to be imaginative. France is extraordinarily imaginative, creative in terms of energy, ”said Bruno Le Maire on LCI.

The risk of energy shortages does not stop at the French borders, as the President of the European Commission called on the 27 Member States of the European Union on Wednesday to “prepare for further disruptions in the supply of gas, or even a complete shutdown on the part of Russia”.

Germany, otherwise more dependent on Russian gas than France, is already on the alert. The Bundestag has adopted a savings plan: more heating above 20 degrees in winter and more hot water in individual offices, for example.

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