France is less dependent on Russian gas and fossil fuels than other European countries. This is what should enable it to suffer less economically in the context of the economic conflict between the West and Russia, in reaction to the war in ukraine. France’s main supplier is Norway. But Russia is the first supplier at European Union level.
The Bank European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its growth forecasts for the euro zone on Thursday March 10, 2022 due to the conflict in Ukraine. It also published three different scenarios for the coming years depending on the severity of the expected impact of this war and the sanctions.
The Banque de France will exceptionally publish on Monday morning March 14, 2022, two scenarios for the French economy, said François Villeroy de Galhau on France Inter.
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No recession expected
Recalling that the loss of growth for the euro zone might amount to up to 2 points of cumulative GDP by 2024 in the ECB’s most severe scenario, François Villeroy de Galhau declared that “For France, it would probably be a little less because our dependence on Russian gas is less than average and our dependence on fossil fuels […] is less strong.
The Governor of the Banque de France insisted that no recession was expected, even in the most extreme scenario, and that these forecasts were subject to “ a lot of uncertainties”.
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