This is the scenario most hoped for by Western countries. By hitting the Russian economy with heavy sanctions, of which others are to come, they are trying to weaken Vladimir Putin’s regime to the point of bringing regarding its downfall.
The army might decide not to follow him any longer, the people revolt in the face of a major economic crisis, the oligarchs move away following the seizure of their assets. But what would follow remains unpredictable.
“Regime change in Russia may seem the only way out of this tragedy. Corn […] it is not more likely to improve things than to make them worse,” wrote Samuel Charap, a researcher at the RAND Corporation, an American research institution specializing in defense, on his Twitter account.
Same caution on the side of Andrei Kolesnikov, of the Carnegie Center, who notes that Putin remains popular, according to independent analyses.
And “for the moment, unprecedented Western financial pressure” has transformed the Russian political class and the oligarchs “into unwavering supporters” of their leader, explains Mr. Kolesnikov.
President Vladimir Putin does not hide his nostalgia for the days of the Soviet Union.
After absorbing Belarus, invading Ukraine, might it look to Moldova and Georgia, or even to the four NATO countries that share borders with Ukraine?
Moscow might try to break the balance of European and transatlantic security “by provoking incidents at Europe’s borders” or in particular via cyberattacks, believes Bruno Tertrais, a political scientist specializing in geopolitical and strategic analysis.
It is unlikely that Russia will challenge NATO “as both parties want to avoid it”, says Pascal Ausseur, ex-admiral, director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies.
However, “the return of Russian forces to a NATO country, Lithuania for example, to connect Kaliningrad [à la Biélorussie] remains possible,” he told AFP.
“A misunderstanding or a collision is also possible at the borders [européennes] Ukraine or in the Black Sea, where many warplanes and warships are deployed in a confined space,” adds Mr. Ausseur.
This is Putin’s favorite scenario. The superior Russian military might push Ukraine to give up. However, this outcome seems unlikely.
“It is a war that Putin cannot win, no matter how long or how cruel his methods,” said British historian Lawrence Freedman of King’s College London. “Entering a city is not the same as holding it. »
Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, sees several alternatives.
Full annexation of Ukraine “has almost no chance of happening,” he writes. And the division of the country, like Korea or Germany in 1945, is hardly more plausible, according to him. There remains the option where “Russia manages to install a puppet regime [pro-Poutine] in Kyiv ”.
The Ukrainians surprise everyone, with a total mobilization, even if destruction and losses are massive.
“The state, the army, the administration have not collapsed,” notes a Western diplomat. Contrary to Putin’s speech, “the population does not accept the Russians as liberators”, he adds, referring “probably in the Russian military chain to difficulties that it is too early to qualify”.
Supported by Western intelligence services and arms deliveries, Ukrainian forces can drag their adversary into a destructive urban conflict, but where knowledge of the terrain will be decisive. The history of the guerrillas shows that those who defend their territory have the advantage.
Putin placed his nuclear forces on “special alert” last week, a statement both ominous and without real substance, since some of the nuclear weapons are still usable in no time.
For Christopher Chivvis, of the Carnegie Center, a “tactical” nuclear bomb, intended to strike military targets, might be used by Russia.
“Crossing the nuclear threshold would not necessarily mean […] an immediate global nuclear war. But it would constitute an extremely dangerous turning point in the history of the world,” he wrote.
For his part, Gustav Gressel, of the European Council for International Relations, is more reassuring. “There is no preparation on the Russian side for a nuclear strike” and Putin’s announcements “are intended to scare Western audiences”, he believes.
