Hello, it’s lunchtime in Paris. Far-right candidate Marine Le pen exposed her plan for the pension system and her opponent Eric Zemmour his defense program.
What happened yesterday? Ségolène Royal, Socialist Party candidate for the 2007 presidential election, praised leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “It is obvious that the strategic vote on the left is the vote for Mélenchon, he is doing the best campaign. He is in the process of softening his tone on things that could displease. He can answer all the questions. He is structured, cultivated. He has the experience of a presidential campaign. He knows how to take a punch. He is the most solid,” she said.
Why does it matter? As the Socialist and Green candidates are struggling, not to mention the catastrophic campaign of center-left candidate Christiane Taubira, Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears as a potential driving force for the left. “I do not know if Ségolène Royal is the right compass. A few days ago, she said she could support Valérie Pécresse. Five years ago, she supported Emmanuel Macron in the first round,” replied Olivier Faure, the head of the Parti Socialiste. On the left, there are major differences between the social-democratic wing and the more radical current, embodied by Jean-Luc Mélenchon on issues such as the European Union, secularism, or foreign policy regarding Russia and China.
The polite cough has given way to a loud annoyed sigh that could soon turn into an uproar. Emmanuel Macron’s opponents are sick of shadowboxing, waiting for the president to announce his candidacy. According to them, he is depriving the country of the robust debate it needs. Ten years ago, the incumbent president Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012), seeking reelection, was already on the campaign trail, like the late Jacques Chirac (1995-2007) in 2002. You have to go back to 1988 to find a president so seemingly reluctant to campaign.
On Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron gathered European ministers in Toulouse (south-west) to speak about “space dreams.” He then returned to Paris for the opening of a summit between the European Union and the African Union. The president announced on Thursday morning the withdrawal of the French armed forces from Mali, nine years after they had been deployed to repel the advance of jihadist fighters.
In the meantime, the two far-right camps were trading insults and threatening legal action. Conservative Valérie Pécresse was complaining about cruel comments fuelled by her laborious speech on Sunday. Meanwhile, only a handful of Christiane Taubira’s supporters showed up in front of the Constitutional Council, crying for help. So far, the former justice minister only has 73 of the 500 sponsors necessary to appear on the ballot in April (deadline is March 4).
You don’t have to be Clausewitz or Sun Tzu to understand that being president puts you in a better position than being a candidate. Why rush into the fray where you will be deprived of the pomp of the presidential office and your rivals will spend their time throwing mud at you?
Emmanuel Macron’s job approval ratings are higher than those of his predecessors. He has already more sponsors than all the other would-be candidates, Conservative Valérie Pécresse aside. Without campaigning, he opened up a ten-point lead in voting intentions. He can only lose ground from there.
The president’s entourage has already made it clear that he wouldn’t take part in a debate with the other candidates before the first round (they could be about ten on them on stage). No such debate with an incumbent has ever been held in the past. Presidential debates usually take place between the two candidates who reach the runoff.
“We’ll have to think about it at some point,” quipped Emmanuel Macron last week when asked about the day of the official announcement. He dropped many pebbles on his way. “There is no false suspense. I want to,” he said in January. At the time, he could put forward the omicron wave, then the Ukrainian crisis gave him cover. Hanging on the phone with Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, he had no time for throwing his hat in the ring.
If there is at least one thing clear, it is the strategy. The fact that many members of Valérie Pécresse’s party left to support the incumbent is the sign that Emmanuel Macron would love to inflict the same treatment to the conservatives as he did to the Parti Socialiste five years ago: the wrecking ball.
The biggest question may not be about the date, the will of the messager, or the content of the message. But rather: A second term for what? When elected, Emmanuel Macron was considered a faithful supply-side economics defender. Then Covid came and the president became Keynesian. “Whatever it costs,” was his motto. Which of those two will campaign next month?
The likely candidate has other vulnerabilities. Only 23% of voters believe that “he understands the problems of people like us, ” compared to far-right Marine Le Pen (42%), or leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon (35%). The comfort of the Elysée Palace can be politically deadly.
Quote of the day
“In the current state of division of the candidacies on the left, we have decided to support no specific candidacy”
In a statement on Wednesday, Raphaël Glucksmann, an ally of the Socialist Party, announced that his small party Place Publique would not support any candidate in the presidential election. Raphaël Glucksmann was elected member of the European Parliament thanks to a joint list carried out by the PS and Place Publique in the European elections of 2019.
Countdown
52 Days until the presidential election’s first round
66 Days until the presidential election’s second round
Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow