2023-08-26 08:30:06
What future for Wagner in Africa following the death of Evgueni Prigojine? Are the countries in which this paramilitary unit operates, such as the Central African Republic and Mali, likely to experience upheaval? The 15th Brics summit was held in South Africa. The organization has accepted membership from several countries including Ethiopia and Egypt. Can it compete with the G7? What opportunities for the African continent? Teacher and analyst in geopolitics and international relations, executive director of InterGlobe Conseils (international consulting firm specializing in geopolitical expertise and strategic communication), Régis Hounkpè answers questions from Guinee360.com.
Guinee360.com : Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, died in a plane crash in Russia. What future for its organization in Africa?
Regis Hounkpè: There will inevitably be a period of uncertainty at the beginning, but like any organization of this size, however reprehensible it is and its harmful designs in Africa and in the world, Wagner will know how to adapt and reorganize itself with a new direction. Obviously, this crash decapitated Wagner’s chain of command, but his staff will be able to count on high-level executives who will take over in the countries where his mercenary activities and predation of strategic resources are taking place. Let us remain attentive to the attitude of the African leaders who made a pact with Wagner because that is what interests me most. Before being a multinational of organized crime and war on command, Wagner is a multinational that counts and manages its profits and interests throughout the world. So they will ensure this financial preservation while reassuring their partners on the continent. Let us especially observe the reaction of African leaders who have linked their political and security fate to this terrorist consortium. Very personally, if Wagner in Africa, cannot know the fate of the Hydra of Lerna, this monstrous serpent of Greek mythology which had several heads, each of which grew back when one was cut. I want to believe it, but let’s stay clear, in reality, it will be more complex than that, with or without Yevgeny Prigojine and Dmitri Outkin, the co-founder and chief strategist of Wagner also broke on August 24.
Beyond the powers that are linked to Wagner, we note that the organization has a capital of sympathy among some young people and on social networks, especially in countries that have recently experienced military coups. How do you explain this phenomenon?
There is no rational explanation. Out of a taste for provocation or true adherence to Wagner? A way of rejecting an existing model by another whose harmfulness will prove to be even more deadly when we think of Sudan or Libya. In this, I can allow myself a point of view which remains subjective: Wagner is indeed a successful model of a public relations and strategic communication company which knew how to evangelize certain minds to the need to fight the legitimately decried French presence, thanks to an underground work of misinformation and intoxication. Multinational of mercenaries, of course, but also, Wagner has everything of the company specialized in “public relations” which knew how to make followers on its importance to free the African youths from the French colonial yoke and the powers supposed or really under Elysian allegiance.
Do the countries where Wagner operates risk suffering the consequences in the event of a dispute over the succession of Prigojine?
It depends on whether musical chairs are played internally at the heart of the Wagner machine or whether Moscow takes over the organization. The Kremlin will ensure that the paramilitary organization preserves its territories and its interests in Africa, which itself will have to rely on the loyalty or submission of the leaders. The question of the succession will intervene quickly but for the moment, Russia needs its armed and informational arm in these countries to continue to consolidate its geopolitical anchorage, especially vis-a-vis the French rivals and the United States. For this, the mercenaries returned from Ukraine and Belarus to concentrate on Africa, will continue to operate until the Kremlin directs their fate differently, and incidentally, that of the African powers which have a destiny linked with Wagner.
The security of President Touadera of the Central African Republic is ensured by Wagner. And if the organization were to withdraw from his country tomorrow, what would he risk? Can he hold out once morest the rebels?
I am not a specialist in the security of presidents and high personalities, but I do not hide from you my incomprehension of the Central African case where the first magistrate of the country is protected by mercenaries. Even if the security of the president is essential, what regarding that of the whole country? Are the paramilitaries securing the whole country or just their mining vaults?
The Brics closed their 15th summit in South Africa. The organization has decided to open up to other countries, notably Egypt and Ethiopia.What does Africa have to gain by joining this organization?
The African countries knocking on the door of the BRICS wish to find there broader trade and investment opportunities, a fairer export market and a geopolitical positioning more in tune with the times. All of this would make sense if the countries in question and their continent as a whole worked more towards economic and commercial autonomy, towards a geopolitical strategy of international and military power. There is no urgency and no injunction to integrate the BRICS in haste!
Some believe that the Brics is to compete with the G7 and dedollarize international trade. What do you think?
Beyond the competition of the G7 and the denunciation of the hegemony of the American dollar and of the Bretton Woods institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the BRICS are designed to respond to a deficit of multilateralism and a reorganization international relations around the world. But bloc powers like China, India or Russia can have divergent and sometimes inseparable interests. The BRICS, in the process of growth, will know their upheavals and at the end of the solidity and credibility if the organization proves to be truly equitable and multilateral.
Interview conducted by Abdoul Malick Diallo
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