2023-09-02 11:57:16
Update
September 02, 2023
13:57
The Russian paramilitary group will survive the death of Prigojine, the Kremlin needing it to extend its influence abroad. But it should undergo an overhaul.
While Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin were quietly buried this week after their death in an air crash on August 23, the question of the future of the group of Russian mercenaries occupies the minds. According to military analysts interviewed by L’Echo, Wagner should continue its operations around the world, especially in Africaafter undergoing a redesign.
“Wagner remains an important strategic tool for the Kremlin.”
The visit of a Russian delegation to Burkina Faso last Thursday, with a view toestablish military cooperation is the latest sign of the Kremlin’s desire to continue expanding its influence in Africa using mercenaries.
“Wagner remains an important strategic tool for the Kremlin, which allows it to project forces abroad without engaging the Russian army“, says Alexander Mattelaer, professor at the VUB and researcher at the Royal Egmont Institute.
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, clearly stated that “Wagner will remain operational in Africa“, Wednesday, at an informal meeting of defense ministers in Toledo.
Wagner’s canvas
Since its deployment in the Central African Republic in 2017, Wagner continued to weave his web in Africa, aided by growing political instability and the vacuums left by Europeans.. The first victim of this rise in power is France, forced to retreat against the pawns of Moscow, as in Burkina Faso last February.
Paris witnesses, powerless, the fall of leaders whose throne it forged, such as President of Niger Mohammed Bazoum, dismissed this summer by a military junta supported by Wagner. France has not yet withdrawn its troops from Niger, where it derives much of its uranium, but his information there anxiously scrutinizes the rise of Wagner.
In less than ten years, the Russian group has extended its sphere of influence to Libya, Sudan, Mali, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and in a dozen other African countries. This presence pays off big. Over the past four years, Wagner has garnered $250 million in mining in Africa. For Moscow, there is no question of losing this windfall.
Putin’s regime will not stop using these mercenaries. Other countries are in his sights, such as the DRC. According to some sources, there has already been contacts between Wagner and relatives of President Félix Tshisekediunsuccessful so far.
Wagner is also present in Venezuela, where he protects the dictator Nicolas Maduro and in Belarus alongside Alexander Lukashenko.
Averianov, the expected successor
To create his empire, Prigozhin established personal relationships with African leaders. His passing poses a daunting challenge: who will be able to lead Wagner without losing that relationship of trust? The Kremlin would rely on Andrei Averyanovpresented at the end of July by Vladimir Putin to African leaders at a summit in Moscow.
Averianov, tipped to head Wagner, is the former boss of theunit 29.155 of the GRU, the intelligence of the Russian army, responsible for carrying out the dirty work of the Kremlin abroad, from assassinations to destabilization operations. According to Western intelligence, the GRU was behind the “accident” that claimed Prigozhin’s life.
Redesign
“The group should be revamped to make it more opaque.”
It remains to be seen whether Wagner will continue his activities in its current form. The coup attempt by his mercenaries in July damaged his reputation in Russia, while his complex form makes him elusive. “Wagner should continue his operations, but probably in another form and with another nom“, says Patrick Wouters, researcher at the Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy at the VUB.
Wagner is actually a label that covers a myriad of around 600 companies created by Prigojine and linked to the umbrella group Concord Management. It’s hard to imagine that a structure of such complexity survives him.
“The group should be reorganized to make it more opaque. The light that has come to light in recent months on Wagner is not what Russian power likes. The Kremlin will undoubtedly restore opacity”, continues Patrick Wouters.
This facelift would not be a first in the sector. In 2011, the American paramilitary group Blackwater was renamed Academi after suffering setbacks in Iraq.
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The summary
- The influence acquired by the Russian paramilitary group Wagner in Africa is such thatit should survive the death of its founder, Evgueni Prigojine. The Kremlin is thinking of Andrei Averianov, an “executor” of military intelligence, to take over the lead.
- Wagner, a complex whole made up of hundreds of companies, should undergo a reorganization, even a change of name.
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