2023-10-31 16:12:12
In the last trading session, VTB shares fell by 0.86%, to 2.53 lots. The securities looked worse than the market. Trading volume exceeded 3.5 billion rubles.
Short term picture
• At the end of last week, VTB shares were actively declining from the maximum reached in October. The bearish divergence on the RSI on the 4-hour chart has materialized. The triggers for the fall were a report of a decrease in profits and an increase in the key rate above expectations.
• Bank shares have lost most of their rise from the autumn low, the price has consolidated under the moving averages, and the technical picture as a whole has moved to the side of sellers. On the technical side, there is room for recovery, but it will require a stable market. In this case, buyers can return the price above the moving averages and the level of 2.58, then the targets will once more be directed at 2.69. The deterioration of the situation should be judged by testing the area of 2.473–2.448.
External background
Asian markets today are trading in different directions and do not show uniform dynamics. Futures for the S&P 500 index are rising by 0.3%, Brent oil is in the red by 1% and is around $89.6.
Resistance levels: 2.58 / 2.69 / 2.73
Support levels: 2.473–2.448 / 2.42 / 2.37
Long term picture
• In 2022, the bank came under Western sanctions – this factor had a significant impact on the shares, which reached a historical low. In the spring of 2023, quotes began to recover, driven by the purchase of Otkritie Bank and a stable financial position.
• In September 2023, quotes updated their annual maximum and went into correction along with the market. They are currently near EMA21 and EMA50. The RSI indicator is unloaded, but the possibility of further decline is still present.
• The long-term view is moderately positive: once level 3 is overcome, the benchmarks will rise to a fundamental assessment of 3.5.
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