2024-09-30 17:44:34
The counting of postal votes in the National Council election on Monday brought minor changes. There was also a small shift in mandates compared to Sunday’s result. As a result, including the APA/ORF/Foresight electoral map forecast, a mandate moves from the ÖVP to the FPÖ. The remaining votes will be counted on Thursday – with these the mandate could go back to the ÖVP.
The voting card forecast will be revised slightly based on the voting cards counted on Monday, Foresight said. The proportion of votes in the result including the postal vote forecast remained the same, including the first digit after the decimal point. However, since the ÖVP is losing absolutely some votes, it is likely to lose its 52nd mandate, while the FPÖ will gain one and reach 57 seats.
The fluctuation range before Thursday’s round is still 0.2 percentage points, which leaves a certain amount of room for maneuver. It is also possible that the ÖVP will ultimately retain the mandate after the last voting cards have been counted on Thursday and the FPÖ will remain at 56.
After the Monday round, the election winner holds the FPÖ with 57 seats (+26), the ÖVP with 51 (-20), the SPÖ with 41 (+1), the NEOS with 18 (+3) and the Greens with 16 seats ( -10).
In percentage terms, according to the preliminary results including the postal vote forecast, the FPÖ now remains at 28.8 percent, the ÖVP at 26.3 percent. The SPÖ remains at 21.1 percent, as does the NEOS at 9.2 percent and the Greens at 8.3 percent. The small parties that failed to gain entry also remain unchanged: the Beer Party at 2 percent, the KPÖ at 2.4 percent, the Madeleine Petrovic list at 0.6 percent, and the NONE list also remains at 0.6 percent.
Without the postal vote forecast, the provisional result on Monday evening behaves almost as including the projection: The FPÖ is at 28.90 percent, the ÖVP at 26.32 percent, the SPÖ at 21.12 percent, the NEOS at 9.11 percent and the Greens at 8.19 percent. The preliminary results of the small parties are identical to those including the postal voting card forecast.
The 2023 electoral law reform took effect for the first time in this National Council election: This means that the majority of postal votes were already counted on Sunday – for the first time in a National Council election. According to the election researchers at the Foresight Institute, this probably corresponded to around 80 percent of the voting cards issued. The counting of the remaining (postal) voting cards – probably around 15 percent of all issued – took place or will take place on Monday (the majority) and Thursday. Experience shows that another five percent of the cards are not used.
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