Wladimir Putins 9. May
Victory Day or War Day?
By Holger Preiss
4/29/2022, 9:11 p.m
The world is spellbound on May 9th, the day on which the victory over the German fascists is traditionally celebrated in Russia. In view of the situation in the war against Ukraine, the suspicion is growing that Putin could use the day to call for general mobilization.
According to experts, how the war in Ukraine will continue depends very much on one day. The day that is celebrated in the former Soviet Union and also in today’s Russia as the day of victory over the German Reich in World War II and thus also as the end of the “Great Patriotic War”. In Germany and large parts of Europe, May 8th is known as the day of liberation in the calendar. Why? Because in Russia, the date of ratification of Germany’s unconditional surrender on May 9 at 00:16 local time in Berlin is considered the end of the war.
Be that as it may, the day is historically charged for Russia. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace warned The Sun that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use May 9 to pledge his troops to a “war against a Nazi world.”
The editor-in-chief of the state broadcaster RT, Margarita Simonyan, is also keeping the propaganda machine running on Russian television. The propagandist pointed out that Putin was more likely to launch a nuclear strike than allow Russia to lose the war. “Either we lose in Ukraine, or the world war begins,” proclaimed Simonyan. With what hate The argument is carried out on Russian state television, also confirms Simonyan’s statement about a possible war scenario: “We go to heaven while the enemies only croak,” she explains and ends with the sentence: “We will all die one day.”
Putin is under pressure
The diction on state television and Russia’s political rhetoric are apparently intended to swear the people into a long war, which was originally planned as a “two-day war.” Meanwhile, it lasts more than two months and the promised victory over the “Ukrainian fascists”, as they are called by Russian politicians and state television alike, is nowhere in sight. Instead, the Russian military suffered heavy casualties and was even repelled at crucial points. A limited offensive should now ensure that at least Donbass and southern Ukraine are secured. If that succeeds by May 9, Putin could celebrate the day as Victory Day in two ways. It could also be an opportunity for Putin to offer Ukraine negotiations.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Viktorovich Lavrov pointed out on Russian state television that the “danger of an escalation of the war is real”.
(Photo: dpa)
But there are also other voices, such as those of the war analysts of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds. In their study of Russia’s “Operation Z,” they assume that Putin will not announce victory on May 9, but will call for the Russian people to mobilize. The dossier states: “May 9th has changed from a deadline for victory into the beginning of a huge mobilization.” The two authors write that the Russian leadership has long recognized that it will take time to achieve the goals in eastern Ukraine. That’s why Watling and Reynolds expect a “major offensive” in the summer.
The talk will be of war
The authors also assume that from May 9 the Russian leadership will no longer speak of a “special military operation” against Ukraine, but of a “war”, a term used to describe the attack on Ukraine in Russia must not be designated. For some time now, Watling and Reynolds have observed a change in the rhetoric of the Russian leadership with regard to the invasion of Ukraine. The conflict with “the Anglo-Saxons” and NATO is now the focus here.
Also the experts of Center for European Political Analysis (Cepa) see an intensification of the war in Ukraine. Citing reports from the Russian secret service, the authors assume that the Russian military considers the previous strategy to be a fatal mistake. While the NATO countries were supplying Ukraine with heavier and heavier weapons, the Russian troops would still be fighting under “peace conditions”. Airstrikes are “only” flown on a few important targets of the Ukrainian infrastructure, but not consistently against an enemy that is constantly being upgraded. According to the conclusions drawn from this, extensive mobilization is now required. That would mean that the war against the alleged brother nation would be drastically expanded, with increasing losses on the Russian side as well.
To date, NATO has been tempted to dismiss all this as gun rattling. But there are already warning voices. The defense expert at the US think tank Rand Corporation, Mike Mazarr, says: “It could just be a threatening gesture by Russia. But if it’s true that Putin is changing course, the risk shouldn’t be underestimated.” A national mobilization and Putin’s announcement on May 9 that the country was at war with immediate effect would also put “the USA in great distress”. Because it is not to be expected that Ukraine, the USA or the European NATO countries will give way. A Russian victory also seems out of the question by then. In any case, the mobilization that Putin is aiming for entails considerable political risks, up to and including an escalation of the war.