The migration crisis generated in the Americas by the exodus of Venezuelans, far from being over, is experiencing a pendulum movement today in South America due to the change of governments, and is worsening in the United States due to the illusion of a possible softening of the sanctions of the Administration of Joe Biden to the cabinet of Nicolás Maduro.
According to the Interagency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela, co-led by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), as of February 8, 2022, some 6,041,690 Venezuelans had left his country.
Of these, 4,992,215 were in Latin America and the Caribbean, mainly distributed in Colombia (1.8 million), Peru (1.3 million), Ecuador (508,900) and Chile (448,100).
“In these countries, the pandemic generated a pendulum movement to and from Venezuela as of 2020 because economic conditions and regularization became more complex,” Donna Cabrera, a teacher, researcher and consultant on international migration, told Efe.
In Latin America, Venezuelan immigrants were left defenseless because they did not have access to the benefits that the different governments granted to their nationals to alleviate the coronavirus crisis.
Immediately, Maduro injected fuel into the Plan Vuelta a la Patria, which since 2018 has facilitated the return of migrants, and through which, according to the Foreign Ministry, as of February 22, 2022, only 27,816 people had returned.
Change of rudder in South America
One of the reasons for the pendulum movement in migration is, in the case of South America, the expectation for the course that the situation of Venezuelans will take after the change of direction in the governments of Peru and Chile, and after the presidential elections of the next May 29 in Colombia.
“The new presidents and their vision of migration and the way in which Venezuelan migrants and refugees integrate are going to have a strong impact on the mobility of these people through the region,” Cabrera clarified.
Already the Peruvian president, Pedro Castillo, sounded the alarms on July 28, 2021 by stating during his inauguration: “Foreign criminals will have 72 hours from the date to leave the country.”
Although the xenophobic touch of these words made Venezuelans think the worst, the truth is that the return to their homeland is far from massive.
“Estimates would indicate that some 500 people would be leaving Peru daily through the northern border, in Tumbes, while daily income continues to exceed 1,200 people,” UNHCR representative Federico Luis Agusti told Efe.
For the president of the Venezuelan Union in Peru, Óscar Pérez, another relevant factor in the migratory movement is the “disproportionate” fines imposed on those who did not extend their residence on time.
“This is evidently leading some people to prefer to leave because they will never be able to pay this fine,” Pérez declared, after recalling that, on average, Venezuelans receive a daily salary of 31 soles (about 8 dollars), while the sanction amounts to 46 soles per day (about 12.2 dollars).
In his turn, Gabriel Boric, who became the Chilean Presidency on March 11, proposed establishing quotas among the countries of the region to receive immigrants.
However, for now the crisis does not understand diplomacy. This is what happens in Colchane, an impoverished town in Chile, bordering Bolivia, which does not have supermarkets, banks, adequate medical services or sewerage, but where it is estimated that between 200 and 330 foreigners arrive daily.
There, the business generated by irregular migration, together with the abuses of coyotes and the criminal organizations that promote it, have caused intense economic pressure, insecurity and xenophobia since February of this year.
The same thing happened in the neighboring city of Iquique, where groups of truckers stopped traffic and demanded action after several violent incidents involving foreigners.
Also, of the 1.8 million Venezuelans in Colombia, 96% have taken advantage of the Temporary Protection Statute by which they can regularize their situation and stay for up to ten years.
This “highlights one of the greatest challenges” which is “to make room for comprehensive and robust processes that allow the needs of migrants to be met, making it possible for them to become an integral part of the social map of our country, contributing to economic and social development », said the director of the Colombian Red Cross, Judith Carvajal.
In this regard, the Colombian vice president and foreign minister, Marta Lucía Ramírez, stated that the government seeks to change the criteria with which migration is handled in the country, which in her opinion should go “from humanitarian assistance to socioeconomic inclusion.” .
Back home
While Maduro insists on inviting his compatriots to return due to the supposed prosperity that the country is experiencing, experts describe the situation as a mirage due to the increase in prices and the proliferation of commercial establishments dedicated to the sale of imported products that are inaccessible to the vast majority. .
Even so, in the report “Diagnosis on the Human Rights situation of Venezuelan migrants and refugees in the Argentine Republic” it was made clear that the desire of the majority is to return to their homeland.
Among those interviewed, “83% said that they had emigrated because they could not cover their basic needs. So, if the economic situation improves, it is likely that there will be a greater incentive for Venezuelans who have not been able to insert themselves economically to decide to return to Venezuela,” commented Ana Paula Penchaszadeh, from the National Council for Scientific and Technical Research.
However, Penchaszadeh recalled that in the second place of the reasons for leaving Venezuela “were the political situation and the violence, a context that has not undergone palpable changes.”
The American dream
Given the difficulties that exist in Latin America, a new direction has taken hold for Venezuelans: the United States, where they went from 256,000 in 2015 to 423,000 in 2019.
“We are collapsed, we have had to extend the hours and we are looking for volunteers to extend the days of attention,” stressed Patricia Andrade, head of the Raíces program, which helps Venezuelans who arrive in Miami, “most of them only with what they are wearing. ».
For her, saying that Venezuelans are returning to their country is “a strategy of the regime” because whoever manages to enter the United States does not return, unless they are not allowed to stay, she said.
Precisely, in 2021 the government of US President Joe Biden approved the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuela, which offers a residence and work permit for 18 months, until September 2022.
Since it was launched in March, and until December of last year, just over 220,000 Venezuelans have applied for TPS, according to the Citizenship and Immigration Service, and it is estimated that 323,000 can access that program.
Proof that the exodus is increasing is that in January 2021 there were 205 Venezuelans on the border between Mexico and the United States, and the figure rose to 25,000 in December.
This boom is explained, in part, because Biden, who arrived at the White House in January 2021 and maintained the sanctions imposed on Caracas by his predecessor, Donald Trump, which especially affect the oil sector, the main Venezuelan economic engine, begins to give their arm to twist after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The US boycott of Russian crude has caused the price of oil to skyrocket, contributing to the country’s already high inflation, which is why Washington is looking for alternatives to maintain supply.
As a consequence, and for the first time in years, a high-level delegation, led by the White House adviser for Latin America, Juan González, traveled to Venezuela this month to meet with Maduro, whom the United States still does not recognize as president.
One of the objectives was to evaluate the possibility of partially lifting the oil sanctions and thus facilitating the flow of Venezuelan crude in international markets.
“Clearly oil was the main driver of the visit. Given the high cost of gasoline during an election year in the United States, But that effort seems to have stalled, largely due to the opposition of both Republicans and Democrats, “said Eric Farnsworth, of the Council of the Americas think tank, in reference to the legislative elections in November.
Over time, Farnsworth told Efe that it is “conceivable” that Biden would seek a “more transactional agenda” with Venezuela, for oil in exchange for withdrawing sanctions.
Despite this, Venezuelan oil production today is barely 800,000 barrels a day, and the Caribbean country has little room to increase it in the short term without making significant investments.
By contrast, Russia produces more than 11 million barrels a day, so the impact of reintroducing Venezuelan crude to the global market is limited.
By Jorge Gil Ángel from Bogotá, Alfonso Fernández Sánchez from Washington, Ana Rosa Mengotti from Miami, Rodrigo García Melero from Buenos Aires, Carla Samon Ros from Peru, Sabella Bello from Venezuela and Segastián Silva Balcazar from Chile.