Venezuela will hold presidential elections on July 28, Chávez’s birthday

The National Electoral Council of Venezuela announced this Tuesday that the presidential elections will be held on July 28, the day of Hugo Chávez’s birth. The electoral authority has made it public precisely today, the date on which the promoter of the political movement that has governed the country for more than two decades died. The exact date on the calendar, which the entire international community was waiting for, launches a complex and highly questioned electoral process, from which the main opposition, María Corina Machado, has been banned, to clear the way for President Nicolás Maduro. The campaign will take place between July 4 and 25.

Candidates will be able to register between March 21 and 25. What in any country might seem like an unimportant administrative procedure is essential in Venezuela. Chavismo has been inflexible with the participation of Machado, who leads the majority of the polls that have been made public in recent months. The courts, controlled by the ruling party, hide behind an alleged mistake that he committed with his expenses during his time as a congressman, the time in which he became known for dialectically confronting Chávez. The opposition chose her to face Maduro in 2024 in primaries that surprised everyone, mainly Maduro. Two million Venezuelans took to the streets and voted en masse for Machado. He was a demonstration of strength of a politician who a few years ago maintained very extremist anti-Chavista positions, but who in recent times has moderated his positions to address a broader public.

In the last two years, the international community has tried to convince Chavismo of the need to hold clean and transparent elections in which the opposition would have real options for victory. There was talk of a kind of democratic transition that would be carried out with the consensus of all parties. The US Government of Joe Biden, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, or the Colombian, Gustavo Petro, have tried to promote this avenue of dialogue. Former Spanish president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was also a supporter. Chavismo, however, argued that the international sanctions that weighed on the country prevented any type of agreement. Maduro even said that if these restrictions were not lifted, democratic elections would not be held.

The Government and the opposition, who have been sitting for years at dialogue tables that are reactivated from time to time to find a political solution to the very long institutional crisis in which Venezuela is immersed, signed an agreement in Barbados in which they committed to respect the electoral calendar included in the Constitution, which states that they must be held in the second half of this year, and facilitate the registration of opposition candidates. There are many who are disabled. In addition to Machado, this ban also weighs on Henrique Capriles, who once ran once morest Chávez in the elections and was on the verge of defeating him. Washington thought, with these Barbados agreements, that it was time to show political will and in October 2023 it lifted sanctions on gas, oil and gold. Venezuela might officially return to international markets and improve its economy.

In exchange, Maduro had to begin democratic opening. That never happened. The president and his circle of trust were inflexible regarding Machado’s disqualification. Chavismo has clearly demonstrated that he does not want to confront her under any circumstances. The government’s closure disappointed the White House, which announced the return of sanctions at the end of January. The possibility of a minimally competitive electoral process suddenly disappeared, as those who completely distrust Maduro’s conciliatory intentions had predicted. Since that moment, Chavismo has radicalized his politics. As Chávez also did in his day, Maduro assures that there is a plan to assassinate him and carry out a coup d’état in the country. The prosecution has detained opponents, activists and members of human rights organizations under this accusation. Even ordinary citizens who have criticized Chavismo on social networks.

The electoral date has been set by the CNE, but Chavismo had begun a round of consultations with businessmen, related sectors and political parties instrumentalized by the ruling party. The Unitary Platform, which has chosen María Corina Machado as a candidate, was left out of the debate. Jorge Rodríguez claimed this unity as a sign of democratic health. The two nods to Chávez’s birth and death on the calendar do not leave many doubts regarding who has chosen the moment. Machado does not give up and has started a campaign for Venezuela to gain more support and pressure Chavismo to accept her participation. Maduro has also been campaigning for some time now, or rather lives there permanently. Most likely, only he can compete, but she is not going to make it so easy for him and is going to try to demonstrate that without her participation the elections are an operetta. For one reason or another, in Venezuela the perpetual fire of discord always fuels.

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