2023-10-18 13:22:11
Photograph provided by Prensa AN showing the president of the National Assembly of Venezuela, Jorge Rodríguez (d), together with the opponent Gerardo Blyde during a day of dialogue with the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), today in Bidgetown (Barbados).
Photo: AN/EFE Press – AN Press
The Government of Venezuela and the opposition represented in the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) signed a partial agreement on political rights and electoral guarantees on Tuesday in Barbados, with the upcoming presidential elections on the radar.
The document contemplates rights such as the freedom of political actors to select their candidate for the elections, the date on which these will take place, the updating of the electoral registry that will be done along the way and, among others, the commitment to recognize the final results.
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The agreement was signed in the presence of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Barbados, Jerome Walcott, and representatives of Norway, the facilitating country, and other accompanying countries such as the Netherlands, Russia, Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, represented by Foreign Minister Álvaro Leyva. .
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As explained by Txomin Las Heras Leizaola, a researcher at the Venezuela Observatory of the Universidad del Rosario and president of Dialogo Ciudadano, Tuesday’s agreements are a kind of continuation of what was reached at the table that had been set up in Mexico, but was frozen. almost a year ago, and what was agreed upon then has not been able to materialize until now.
At the outset, the expert welcomes the agreement, as he believes should be done with all efforts aimed at “reducing tension peacefully.”
For Eglée González Lobato, a Venezuelan political and electoral analyst, one of the main points to highlight is the agreement on electoral observation by the European Union (among other organizations), the same one that deployed a mission in the 2021 local elections. in which, for example, historically, the ruling party was defeated in the state of Barinas (birthplace of Hugo Chávez).
But what might be different this time?
With several failed negotiation attempts, that is perhaps the first question that may arise.
For González Lobato, it is notable that this time, unlike what happened in 2018, the date for the elections has been set in the agreement: it will have to be in the second half of 2024. The process, the expert adds, has practically begun with the opposition primary elections taking place next weekend.
Txomin Las Heras, for his part, recognizes that there are no guarantees that this process will not be frustrated like the previous ones. However, he also sees different factors this time around. For example, that of incentives for the Venezuelan regime: the expert points out the need for Nicolás Maduro to “improve the country” in the face of the elections, precisely to improve his popularity ratings.
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But, for that, it needs resources like those that have not been released since the agreement reached in Mexico last year, which contemplated some US$3 billion administered by the United Nations to address the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.
The release of those funds, however, has not been carried out amid fears that Venezuela’s creditors will appear to collect debts. However, last May, the United States said that money would be protected.
Washington has also conditioned the softening of sanctions to the Venezuelan regime’s signs of democratic restoration.
“With the signing of these agreements, we are taking the first step towards the full lifting of all sanctions, the progressive recovery of social well-being, economic growth, the consolidation of peace and democracy, within the framework of full sovereignty and national independence,” expressed Nicolás Maduro on X (formerly Twitter).
This time it would also be different due to the level of participation that the United States has had, which, according to Las Heras Leizaola, has a particular interest derived from the war in Ukraine and now in the Middle East: the oil market.
Although the Venezuelan industry is practically withered, Las Heras points out that the country with the largest crude oil reserves continues to have striking potential in the midst of the difficulties caused by the international isolation of the oil giant that is Russia (following its invasion of Ukraine ), and now the instability in the other major oil region: the Middle East.
The other key issue would be that of migration, while arrests by the Border Patrol on the border with Mexico, in the south of the United States, increase once more, and at the same time as the crossings through the Darién Gap, of people Seeking to follow the route to North America, they break all records, with the Venezuelan population as the largest group that crosses that jungle.
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The doubts
The big doubt that remains following the agreements is the issue of the political inabilities that weigh on the candidates. Although this is not explicitly discussed, the first point, for example, recognizes the right of political actors to choose their candidate in the way they consider.
Then, point 11 establishes that “authorization will be promoted to all presidential candidates and political parties, as long as they meet the requirements established to participate in the presidential election…”.
Given the doubts, however, the president of the National Assembly and head of the Government delegation at the table, Jorge Rodríguez, expressed: “If you received an administrative disqualification by the body to which it corresponds (…) then neither “he can be a candidate.”
The most prominent disqualified figure is María Corina Machado, following two other disqualified candidates, Henrique Capriles and Freddy Superlano, resigned in recent days, before the primaries.
According to Las Heras, María Corina Machado’s platform has not wanted to discuss what plan b would be in case she definitely cannot participate. González, for her part, points out that the candidate can have confidence that the strength she has in the electorate (which is regarding to be tested at the polls) is sufficient to ensure that she is qualified.
And, on the other hand, there is a key factor: the empowerment of voters abroad. With some seven million Venezuelans making up the diaspora, their electoral participation is no small matter. However, the agreement is barely restricted by saying that the electoral registry abroad will be updated, “with no limitations other than those provided for in the Constitution and the law.”
This, for González, imposes barriers over which there is no exhortation or call for a broader agreement or legislative adjustments to guarantee the participation of migrant and refugee citizens.
As Camilo Gómez pointed out in an article in this newspaper, in Colombia, for example, “the Temporary Statute of Protection for Migrants (ETPV) that the country promoted is not recognized as the traditional scheme to give regular status to foreigners. Only visas provide that, and the ETPV is just the mechanism that offers the possibility of applying for a visa.”
Thus, “there are hundreds of thousands of people from Venezuela in Colombia who cannot vote. And this situation, in a context of one of the most important migrations in the world, might change the results.”
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